Donovan Mitchell—

CLE · SG

PPG

28.2

RPG

4.4

APG

5.9

L5 PPG

24.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.8

28.2

24.4

RPG-0.8

4.4

3.6

APG+1.1

5.9

7.0

SPG0.0

1.6

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

OVER 28.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

28.5

WAS

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs WAS: 30 pts

BKN

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BKN: 17 pts

CHA

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs CHA: 32 pts

OKC

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs OKC: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 30 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 26 pts

Over 28.5

Under 28.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 28.5STAKE

72%

AST

OVER 5.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

65%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

70%

P+A

OVER 34.5STAKE

70%

R+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

64%

PRA

OVER 39.5

68%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

27.3

26.1

RPG

4.0

3.3

APG

5.9

6.8

vs MIL (H2H)17 games

PPG

27.6

RPG

4.7

APG

5.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
OG Anunoby	3	13	0%	-48.1%	medium
Pelle Larsson	3	11	83%	+18.6%	medium
Kelly Oubre Jr.	4	11	50%	-3.7%	medium
Anthony Black	2	10	67%

Mitchell Poised for Solid Output vs. Milwaukee's Vulnerable Perimeter Defense

Donovan Mitchell enters this matchup in stable form, averaging 24.4 PPG over his last 5 games while maintaining elite efficiency (48.1% FG, 85.7% FT on the season). His assists have spiked to 7.0 APG in recent games, well above his 5.9 season average, signaling increased playmaking responsibility. Against Milwaukee's below-average perimeter defense (116.1 DEF rating, 18.5% scoring suppression), Mitchell has historically thrived with a 27.6 PPG average across 17 head-to-head matchups. Both teams are well-rested (CLE with 2 days rest, no B2B), positioning Mitchell for a high-volume, efficient performance.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.4(→ from 28.2)

APG

7.0(↑ from 5.9)

Threes Per Game

2.4(↓ from 3.4)

Stocks (STL+BLK)

2.0(→ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Gary Trent Jr. is the primary perimeter defender with 19.9 minutes logged against Mitchell historically, allowing 11 points on 33% FG. However, Milwaukee's overall perimeter defense ranks weak (116.1 DEF rating), and Trent's limited volume suggests Mitchell will face multiple defenders, increasing his offensive flexibility and playmaking opportunities.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Donovan Mitchell▼	Points	28.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	30%	19	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	3	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	8	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	80%	2	✓
Donovan Mitchell▼	P+A	34.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	22	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	R+A	10.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	11	✓
Donovan Mitchell▼	PRA	39.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	10%	30	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R29.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Donovan Mitchell

Points + Assists OVER 34.5HIGH

Mitchell's season P+A average is 34.1, and his last 5 games show 31.4, but recent individual performances vs. quality opponents (Dallas: 26+11=37, 24+8=32; Boston: 30+5=35) demonstrate consistent production above this line. With elevated assists (7.0 last 5) and his historical 27.6 PPG vs. Milwaukee, the combination prop offers excellent value at 34.5 with both components trending positively.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Gary Trent Jr.	2	7	5	50%	63%
Ryan Rollins	3	7	10	67%	83%
Taurean Prince	2	6	0	0%	0%
AJ Green	3	6	0	0%	0%
Kyle Kuzma	2	5	2	50%	50%

pointsOVER 28.572%HIGH

Mitchell's season average of 28.2 PPG combined with his 27.6 PPG mark vs. Milwaukee historically suggests the line is slightly undervalued. Recent form shows 24.4 PPG over last 5, but Milwaukee's weak perimeter defense (18.5% suppression) and his solid 39-minute recent effort vs. Dallas (26 points) indicate upside potential.

assistsOVER 5.568%MEDIUM

Mitchell's last 5 games average 7.0 APG, well above the 5.5 line. Recent games vs. Dallas (11 AST, 8 AST) show elevated playmaking. The away split shows 6.8 APG vs. 5.5 home average, and he's visiting Milwaukee where he's averaged 5.6 APG historically.

reboundsUNDER 4.565%MEDIUM

Mitchell's last 5 average of 3.6 RPG falls short of 4.5. Last 10 shows 3.9 RPG. Recent individual games show volatility (1 vs. Dallas, 7 vs. Boston), but the median sits well below the line. Season mean is 4.42, and he's facing a team without notable rebound suppression advantages.

threesOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

Season 3-pointers per game is 3.38, but last 5 have dropped to 2.4. However, recent games vs. Dallas showed 4 three-pointers on 11 attempts and 1 on 4 attempts, suggesting volume variance. Against Milwaukee's moderate three-point suppression (1.421 factor), the 1.5 line is conservative given season shooting from three (36.5%).

stocksOVER 1.570%HIGH

Mitchell's season stocks average 1.85 (STL 1.6, BLK 0.3) and last 5 shows 2.0 stocks. Recent games demonstrate consistent 1-3 steals per game. The 1.5 line sits below both season and recent rolling averages, offering good value on the over.

paOVER 34.570%HIGH

Points + Assists: Season average is 34.1 (28.2 PPG + 5.9 APG), and last 5 shows 31.4. Recent games vs. Dallas (26+11=37, 24+8=32) and vs. Boston (30+5=35) demonstrate consistent ability to hit or exceed this line. Mitchell's elevated assist rate supports the over.

raOVER 10.564%MEDIUM

Rebounds + Assists: Season average is 10.8 (4.4 RPG + 5.9 APG), and last 5 shows 10.6. While rebound volatility exists, the assists floor is solid at 7.0 last 5 games, meaning even a 3-rebound effort yields 10. Away split shows 10.1 (3.3 RPG + 6.8 APG).

praOVER 39.568%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds + Assists: Season mean is 38.5 (28.2 + 4.4 + 5.9), and last 5 shows 35.0 (24.4 + 3.6 + 7.0). Recent performances vs. Dallas (26+1+11=38, 24+2+8=34) and Boston (30+7+5=42) show variance around the line. Mitchell's elevated playmaking and solid scoring floor support the over.

stealsOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

Mitchell's season steals average 1.6 SPG, last 5 shows 1.6, and last 10 shows 1.7. Recent games consistently log 1-3 steals. The 1.5 line is at his season average, making the over slightly attractive given his away-game tendency to average 1.9 SPG.

timelineOVER 28.5 PTS