Kevin Porter Jr.▲

MIL · PG

PPG

17.2

RPG

5.3

APG

7.3

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.6

17.2

10.6

RPG+0.7

5.3

6.0

APG-1.7

7.3

5.6

SPG-0.2

2.2

2.0

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

OKC

2026-02-12

2026-02-12 vs OKC: 12 pts

NOP

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs NOP: 25 pts

TOR

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs TOR: 21 pts

MIA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIA: 32 pts

CLE

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs CLE: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs NYK: 11 pts

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 10 pts

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 8 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 6 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 18 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

62%

AST

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

65%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

68%

3PM

UNDER 0.5FANDUEL

72%

P+A

UNDER 28.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+R

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

R+A

OVER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

PRA

UNDER 32.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.2

14.4

RPG

5.5

5.3

APG

7.4

6.6

vs CLE (H2H)4 games

PPG

11.0

RPG

3.5

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
CJ McCollum	5	15	53%	-7.6%	medium
Derrick White	2	9	75%	+3.5%	low
Desmond Bane	2	8	70%	+13.5%	low
Andrew Nembhard	2	8	35%

Porter Jr. Struggles in Recent Form, Faces Familiar Foe in Cavs Matchup

Kevin Porter Jr. has hit a wall recently, averaging just 10.6 PPG over his last 5 games compared to 17.2 for the season—a concerning 38% drop. However, the last-5 stretch shows high variance (std dev 7.89), and he posted 20 PPG against Cleveland on 2026-02-25 (38 min, 5 steals). Playing at home where he averages 18.2 PPG, KPJ has favorable splits and strong playmaking (7.4 APG at home), though his recent 3PT shooting has cratered (0.4 per game in L5 vs 1.22 season avg). Donovan Mitchell's defense has allowed 15 PPG on 71% FG in limited minutes guarding KPJ, but this sample is tiny and dated.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↓ from 17.2)

APG

5.6(↓ from 7.3)

SPG

2.0(→ from 2.2)

3PM

0.4(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Donovan Mitchell has limited sample-size data guarding KPJ (7.9 min, 15 PPG allowed on 71% FG), but this is from a single game and not predictive. Cleveland's defense allows 114.87 DRTG with weak scoring suppression (-0.102), offering no particular concern. However, KPJ's recent form slump and three-point drought are the primary headwinds regardless of opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	25	✗
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Assists	9.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	10	✗
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✗
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	60%	1	✗
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	P+A	28.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	35	✗
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	28	✗
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	13	✓
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	38	✗
Kevin Porter Jr.▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	80%	2	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Porter Jr.

Assists UNDER 9.5MEDIUM

KPJ's playmaking has cratered in the last 5 games (5.6 APG), a 23% drop from season average. While home games typically boost assists (7.4 APG) and he recorded 10 dimes vs NYK on 2026-02-27, the last four games before that show 2, 4, 5, and 7 assists—all under 9.5. The line assumes season-long consistency that recent data contradicts.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Sam Merrill	2	6	5	67%	83%
Dennis Schröder	2	4	0	0%	0%
Donovan Mitchell	1	3	4	20%	20%
James Harden	1	3	4	100%	100%
Keon Ellis	2	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

Last 5 average of 10.6 PPG is well below this line. While home splits (18.2 PPG) and head-to-head history (11 PPG vs CLE) suggest volatility, recent form and shooting slump weigh heavily. The line appears set to season average rather than recent trend.

assistsUNDER 9.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 average of 5.6 APG is significantly below 9.5. While season mean is 7.3 and home splits favor him (7.4 APG), recent playmaking has diminished. The 9.5 line overestimates recent output.

reboundsOVER 3.568%MEDIUM

Season average 5.27 RPG and last 5 average 6.0 RPG comfortably exceed 3.5. Recent games show 4-8 rebound range consistently. This line is conservative relative to his actual performance.

threesUNDER 0.572%HIGH

Last 5 average is just 0.4 3PM. While season average is 1.22, recent 5-game stretch shows only 2 total threes on 12 attempts. Sharp decline in three-point volume and efficiency.

paUNDER 28.564%MEDIUM

Last 5 PPG (10.6) + APG (5.6) = 16.2, well short of 28.5. Season average would be ~24.5, but recent form collapse in both scoring and playmaking makes this line vulnerable.

prUNDER 22.560%MEDIUM

Last 5 PPG (10.6) + RPG (6.0) = 16.6, significantly below 22.5. Season average PPG (17.2) + RPG (5.3) = 22.5 exactly, but recent scoring downturn makes this a lean-under given current form.

raOVER 12.566%MEDIUM

Last 5 average: RPG (6.0) + APG (5.6) = 11.6, just shy but within range. Season averages 12.6 (5.3 + 7.3). Recent rebound output strong despite playmaking dip; slightly favors over.

praUNDER 32.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 total: 10.6 PPG + 6.0 RPG + 5.6 APG = 22.2, well below 32.5. Season average is ~29.8. Recent form is clearly depressed; oddsmakers appear to be using season baseline rather than current trend.

stocksOVER 2.570%HIGH

Last 5 stocks average 2.4, and last 10 average 3.0. Season mean is 2.7 with low std dev (1.39). Consistent defender; slight over lean despite recent noise.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS