Nae'Qwan Tomlin▲

CLE · PF

PPG

5.9

RPG

2.8

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

3.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.7

5.9

3.2

RPG-1.8

2.8

1.0

APG-0.6

0.8

0.2

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

WAS

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs WAS: 8 pts

CHA

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs CHA: 5 pts

OKC

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs OKC: 0 pts

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 0 pts

MIL

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MIL: 2 pts

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 2 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 0 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 4 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5STAKE

72%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

70%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

75%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

65%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

70%

P+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

71%

P+R

UNDER 12.5STAKE

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

4.9

5.7

RPG

1.9

2.6

APG

0.6

1.0

vs MIL (H2H)2 games

PPG

2.0

RPG

2.0

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Pascal Siakam	3	7	29%	-18.7%	medium
Brandon Miller	4	6	38%	-22.3%	medium
Jarace Walker	3	6	70%	+12.7%	medium
Bruce Brown	2	5	0%

Tomlin faces steep minutes challenge in Milwaukee with recent usage trends deteriorating

Nae'Qwan Tomlin is in a precarious position heading into this road matchup. Over his last 5 games, he's averaging just 10.6 MPG and 3.2 PPG—a significant drop from his season averages of 15.9 MPG and 5.9 PPG. His recent game log shows inconsistent playing time (ranging 3-17 minutes) and minimal scoring output. Against Milwaukee twice this season, he averaged only 10.5 MPG and 2.0 PPG, with his last meeting on Feb 25 yielding just 9 minutes and 2 points. The Bucks' solid defensive rating (116.1) and Milwaukee's home court should suppress his already-limited production further.

Stat Trends

PPG

3.2(↓ from 5.9)

RPG

1.0(↓ from 2.8)

MPG

10.6(↓ from 15.9)

Stocks

1.2(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Milwaukee's defense allows 116.1 DRtg with 18.5% scoring suppression. In two prior meetings this season, Tomlin averaged just 2.0 PPG on 10.5 minutes, suggesting a predictable pattern against the Bucks' defensive scheme and his limited rotation standing in this matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	100%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	90%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	2/2	100%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	—	60%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	90%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	P+A	9.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	100%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	90%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS5.5UNDER32%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)6/1250%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R8UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)5/1242%▼

REB2OVER57%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x5/1242%▼

3PA2UNDER44%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x2/1217%▼

PRA7.5OVER4%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)6/1250%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

P+A5.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)7/1258%▼

R+A3UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x5/1242%▼

Featured Pick

Nae'Qwan Tomlin

Points UNDER 8.5HIGH

Tomlin's last 5-game average of 3.2 PPG sits 5.3 points below the 8.5 line. His recent minutes collapse (10.6 MPG) and 2.0 PPG average vs Milwaukee this season provide strong corroborating evidence. Even with increased playing time, his recent shooting efficiency has deteriorated, making a path to 8+ points highly improbable.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Gary Trent Jr.	1	3	3	33%	50%
AJ Green	2	1	6	100%	150%
Bobby Portis	2	1	2	50%	50%
Cole Anthony	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jericho Sims	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 8.572%HIGH

Last 5 average of 3.2 PPG is well below the 8.5 line. Recent minutes compression (10.6 MPG last 5) and 2.0 PPG vs Milwaukee this season make this a clear under.

reboundsUNDER 4.570%HIGH

Last 5 average of 1.0 RPG is drastically below 4.5. His only 5+ rebound game (Feb 11) came with 16 minutes; current 10.6 MPG trend suggests limited board time.

assistsUNDER 1.575%HIGH

Last 5 average of just 0.2 APG makes 1.5 unrealistic. Recent games show 0-1 assists consistently; limited offensive role in rotation.

stealsOVER 0.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 average 1.0 SPG; season average 0.7 SPG. Despite limited minutes, he's active on defense with 1+ steals in 4 of last 10 games.

blocksUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 average 0.2 BPG with minimal rim time. Season average 0.5; recent trends show 0 blocks in 5 of last 6 games.

stocksUNDER 1.570%HIGH

Last 5 stocks average 1.2; line sits at 1.5. Limited minutes (10.6 MPG) and recent inconsistency make reaching 2+ stocks unlikely.

paUNDER 9.571%HIGH

Last 5 PPG (3.2) + APG (0.2) = 3.4 total. Combo props require consistent volume; Tomlin's reduced role makes 9.5 very optimistic.

prUNDER 12.572%HIGH

Last 5 PPG (3.2) + RPG (1.0) = 4.2 total. Season P+R average is 8.7, but recent form and Milwaukee matchup suggest well below 12.5.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS