Sam Merrill▼

CLE · SF

PPG

12.7

RPG

2.4

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

8.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.9

12.7

8.8

RPG+0.2

2.4

2.6

APG+0.7

2.3

3.0

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

CHA

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs CHA: 10 pts

OKC

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs OKC: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 0 pts

MIL

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MIL: 14 pts

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 9 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 2 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 13 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

72%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

70%

STL

UNDER 0.5FANDUEL

62%

P+A

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

P+R

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

PRA

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.6

12.4

RPG

2.5

2.2

APG

2.9

1.7

vs MIL (H2H)11 games

PPG

11.5

RPG

2.8

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	4	20	100%	+20.8%	medium
Duncan Robinson	3	12	64%	+8.6%	medium
Trey Murphy III	2	8	50%	-5.9%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	8	44%

Merrill's Sharp Decline vs. Milwaukee Defense Signals Caution

Sam Merrill has cooled significantly over his last 5 games, averaging just 8.8 PPG on 2.0 threes per game—well below his 12.7 season average. Against Milwaukee's elite perimeter defense (AJ Green allows 21 PPG at 54.5% FG), Merrill faces a stiff test despite his 11.5 PPG history vs. the Bucks. The matchup favors Milwaukee's wing length, and Merrill's 0.2 TO per game in L5 suggests limited offensive aggression. He's away from home where he averages only 8.6 PPG, a critical headwind.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.8(↓ from 12.7)

3PM

2.0(↓ from 3.2)

APG

3.0(↑ from 2.3)

Rebounds

2.6(→ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

AJ Green will likely shadow Merrill for 31+ minutes, having allowed 21 PPG at 54.5% FG in recent games. However, Green's high volume also suggests Merrill will see meaningful touches. Milwaukee's overall DEF RTG of 116.1 and three-point suppression (1.421 factor) create a difficult offensive environment for a player already trending cold.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Sam Merrill▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	30%	17	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	2	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✗
Sam Merrill▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	30%	3	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Sam Merrill▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	19	✗
Sam Merrill▼	P+R	11.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	23	✗
Sam Merrill▼	PRA	14.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	50%	25	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS13UNDER27%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A14.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

REB3UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST2OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PRA17.5UNDER27%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A5.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

3PA7UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER19%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM0.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

FTA1UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Sam Merrill

Points + Rebounds + Assists UNDER 14.5MEDIUM

Merrill's L5 combined total is 14.4, placing him at the line. His scoring decline (8.8 PPG in L5 vs. 12.7 season average), coupled with road game underperformance (8.6 PPG away) and Milwaukee's elite perimeter defense, supports regression below 15. The under offers better value than individual props given ensemble volatility.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
AJ Green	4	20	15	67%	100%
Ryan Rollins	4	8	8	50%	67%
Kevin Porter Jr.	2	4	4	100%	100%
Ousmane Dieng	2	3	0	0%	0%
Gary Trent Jr.	2	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 8.572%HIGH

Merrill's L5 average of 8.8 PPG sits just above this line, and he's averaging only 8.6 PPG away from home this season. Milwaukee's strong perimeter defense and AJ Green's presence create a challenging environment for shot creation.

assistsOVER 2.568%MEDIUM

Merrill's L5 average of 3.0 APG and home splits of 2.9 APG support the over. His recent game logs show consistent playmaking (2–5 assists in L5), and increased ball movement helps offset declining scoring.

reboundsUNDER 3.565%MEDIUM

Merrill averages 2.4 RPG on the season and 2.5 L10. At 3.5, this line requires above-average rebounding activity. His recent games show 0–5 rebound totals; this is a role-dependent prop with limited consistency.

threesUNDER 1.570%HIGH

Merrill has shot just 2.0 threes per game in L5 and 2.4 in L10. His 3P% is solid (44.5%), but volume is down. Milwaukee's three-point suppression factor of 1.421 indicates above-average perimeter defense that will limit looks.

stealsUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

Merrill averages 0.6 SPG on the season but only 0.6 in L5 and 0.5 in L10. His defensive activity is inconsistent and rarely reaches steal thresholds. The line is juiced to the under but remains the prudent side.

paUNDER 11.568%MEDIUM

Combining 8.8 PPG (L5) and 3.0 APG (L5) yields ~11.8, which is above this line. However, given declining scoring trend and Milwaukee's defense, expect closer to 11–12 combined, favoring a marginal under.

prUNDER 11.566%MEDIUM

8.8 PPG (L5) + 2.6 RPG (L5) = 11.4. This line is tight, but Merrill's away game scoring struggles (8.6 PPG) and inconsistent rebounding make the under slight value.

praUNDER 14.570%HIGH

L5 PRA: 8.8 + 2.6 + 3.0 = 14.4. Merrill is tracking just at this line. Given his scoring downturn, Milwaukee's defensive prowess (DEF RTG 116.1), and away-game underperformance, expect regression below 15.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS