Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 2 | 8 | 75% | +12.9% | low |
| Jaxson Hayes | 2 | 7 | 100% | +37.9% | low |
| John Konchar | 2 | 6 | 50% | -12.1% | low |
| Bam Adebayo | 2 | 5 | 27% |
Anthony Gill is in a sharp downward trend, averaging just 2.8 PPG over his last 5 games despite increased minutes (17.4 MPG). Most concerning: he played only 8 minutes against Detroit on 3/17 with zero points on 1 FGA, signaling limited usage and trust. While his season metrics show promise (6.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG over last 20 games), recent volatility and back-to-back fatigue undermine confidence. Detroit's defense ranks middle-of-the-road (109.76 rating), but Gill's anemic production versus this opponent (2.71 PPG in 10.1 MPG across 14 matchups) is the real red flag.
Detroit's interior defenders (Jalen Duren, Paul Reed, Cade Cunningham) allowed just 4, 2, and 8 points respectively in limited defensive matchups against Gill, suggesting efficient rim protection. More critically, Gill's historical production against Detroit (2.71 PPG in 10.1 MPG across 14 prior games) indicates the matchup naturally suppresses his scoring.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anthony Gill▼ | Points | 4.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 40% | 2 | ✓ |
Anthony Gill▼ | Rebounds | 3 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Anthony Gill▼ | Assists | 1.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Anthony Gill▼ | STL+BLK | 0.8 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Gill's recent collapse (2.8 PPG last 5), his dismal history vs Detroit (2.71 PPG in 10.1 MPG), combined with his 0-point, 8-minute performance in their last meeting on 3/17, creates a strong UNDER case. Back-to-back fatigue and limited role further reduce ceiling. The projected line of 4.5 is slightly generous given current usage and trend data.
| low |
| Paul Reed | 3 | 5 | 50% | -12.1% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Reed | 3 | 5 | 6 | 50% | 50% |
| Jalen Duren | 3 | 5 | 12 | 38% | 38% |
| Ronald Holland II | 3 | 3 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Javonte Green | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Isaiah Stewart | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Gill averaged 2.7 PPG vs Detroit historically and just posted 0 points on 8 minutes in their last matchup (3/17). Recent form shows 2.8 PPG over last 5 games despite elevated minutes. Back-to-back situation and limited trust limit upside.
Gill has grabbed 3.0 RPG over last 5 and 4.0 RPG over last 20. At home (tonight), he averages 4.4 RPG across his last 11 games. Rebounding is his most consistent contribution relative to scoring.
Recent metrics show 1.8 APG over last 5 and last 10 games, with elevated assist usage in limited floor time. Likely to stay close to 2.0 APG if he receives 18+ minutes.
Gill has posted 0.8 stocks over last 5 and last 10 games. While variance is high (std: 0.75), home games show 1.5 stocks per game over recent stretch, above his overall line.