Ausar Thompson▼

DET · SF

PPG

10.1

RPG

5.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

6.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.9

10.1

6.2

RPG-1.8

5.8

4.0

APG-0.3

2.9

2.6

SPG-0.5

1.9

1.4

BPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

NYK

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs NYK: 10 pts

CHI

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs CHI: 8 pts

SAS

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs SAS: 8 pts

OKC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs OKC: 11 pts

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 2 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

65%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

62%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

64%

P+A

UNDER 11.5STAKE

65%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

7.2

RPG

5.9

4.7

APG

3.8

3.3

vs WAS (H2H)7 games

PPG

10.1

RPG

4.9

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Payton Pritchard	4	25	54%	-16.4%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	16	61%	+5.0%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	14	63%	-2.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	2	13	45%

Thompson's Minutes Slump Limits Upside vs Washington

Ausar Thompson has seen a dramatic drop in playing time over his last 5 games (16.6 MPG, down from 25.7 season average), posting just 6.2 PPG in that stretch despite maintaining his season-long steals prowess at 1.9 SPG. His recent game vs Washington (March 17) was particularly concerning—only 5 minutes played with 2 points—suggesting potential continued bench usage or role restriction. Against a Wizards team with a 123.95 defensive rating that suppresses scoring by 2.0 points, Thompson's depressed volume makes scoring props difficult to project confidently. Rebounds and stocks remain his most reliable categories given his defensive effort, but volume uncertainty is the primary headwind.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.2(↓ from 10.1)

RPG

4.0(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.9)

SPG

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

Stocks

2.6(→ from 2.7)

Key Matchup

Washington's defensive unit (Kyshawn George, Sharife Cooper, Bilal Coulibaly) has limited Thompson in prior meetings, allowing only 10.1 PPG across 7 games vs Washington. His 5-minute recent outing suggests continued defensive assignment challenges or role compression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ausar Thompson▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	7	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	8	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x8/1942%▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%▼

P+R15UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/1937%▼

PTS8UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

STL2UNDER30%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK1UNDER13%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)6/1932%▼

FTM0.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

PRA19OVER3%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

REB5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

AST4OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ausar Thompson

Assists OVER 2.5MEDIUM

Thompson's last 10 games average 3.9 APG and last 5 average 4.2 APG, both well above 2.5. Despite reduced minutes, his playmaking rate (APG per minute) remains solid. This is his most reliable prop given scoring/rebounding volume uncertainty.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bub Carrington	3	10	11	44%	61%
Sharife Cooper	3	6	4	50%	50%
Will Riley	3	5	13	42%	54%
Kyshawn George	1	3	5	100%	125%
Jaden Hardy	2	3	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 9.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 games average only 6.2 PPG with recent 5-minute game vs Washington. Season 10.1 PPG heavily weighted by earlier play; current trajectory suggests 8-9 PPG range.

reboundsUNDER 5.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 games average 4.0 RPG, down from 5.8 season average. Reduced minutes (16.6 MPG last 5) directly suppress rebound volume even with decent per-minute rate.

assistsOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

Recent mean of 4.2 APG (last 5) and 3.9 APG (last 10) exceed the 2.5 line. Home/away splits show 3.3 APG away vs Washington, and he's averaging 3.5 APG over last 20 games.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Last 5 games show 1.4 SPG average despite season 1.9 SPG. Washington's three-suppression (0.677) and general 123.95 def rating limit offensive opportunities where steals cluster.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

Last 5 games average 1.2 BPG, well above 0.5 line. Thompson has been active defensively; last 10 games show 0.9 BPG with several games posting 1+ blocks.

stocksOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

Recent mean of 2.6 STL+BLK (last 5) and 2.7 (last 10) align above 2.5. Defensive activity remains consistent; season average 2.74 stocks provides floor.

paUNDER 11.565%MEDIUM

Points (9.5) and assists (2.5) components both tilted under; combined projection ~12 PPG + 2.6 APG = 11.6, near line. Minutes risk pushes down.

prUNDER 14.563%MEDIUM

Points (9.5) + Rebounds (5.5) projection = 15 PPG + RPG combined. Recent data (6.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG last 5 = 10.2) falls short; 14.5 line slightly optimistic.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Thompson's Minutes Slump Limits Upside vs Washington

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 9.5 PTS