Bub Carrington▼

WAS · PG

PPG

9.6

RPG

3.6

APG

4.6

L5 PPG

6.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.8

9.6

6.8

RPG-0.8

3.6

2.8

APG-0.6

4.6

4.0

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 12 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 11 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 7 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 9 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 12 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 4 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 4 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5STAKE

72%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

65%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

68%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

70%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

68%

R+A

OVER 7.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.0

8.2

RPG

2.7

3.8

APG

3.0

5.2

vs DET (H2H)6 games

PPG

11.5

RPG

3.2

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	4	15	72%	+19.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	14	71%	+22.2%	low
Reed Sheppard	2	11	93%	+29.3%	low
T.J. McConnell	3	10	100%

Carrington Faces Tough Spot on B2B After Injury Recovery

Bub Carrington has shown a clear downward trend over the last 5 games, averaging just 6.8 PPG and 4.0 APG on reduced 20.8 MPG—a significant dip from his 9.6 PPG season average. The recent injury clearance (March 14) correlates with minimal minutes in his last two games (6 min, 12 min), suggesting a cautious return. Tonight's back-to-back and recent poor form (2 PPG vs BOS, 4 PPG vs GSW) create headwinds, though his 11.5 PPG vs Detroit historically offers some encouragement. The Pistons' middling defense (109.76 rating) won't provide much relief given Carrington's current conditioning struggles.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.8(↓ from 9.6)

APG

4.0(↓ from 4.6)

MPG

20.8(↓ from 27.2)

3PM

0.0(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Cade Cunningham has allowed 23 PPG on 50% FG in limited sample (7.5 min) vs Carrington, suggesting upside risk. However, Daniss Jenkins (5.1 min) held Carrington to 12 PPG on 83% FG, indicating capable wing defense. Detroit's overall defensive rating (109.76) is middling—not a major concern but not an easy matchup either.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bub Carrington▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	30	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
Bub Carrington▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	50%	32	✗
Bub Carrington▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	34	✗
Bub Carrington▼	R+A	7.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	6	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA19.5UNDER14%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB3UNDER55%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 9x5/2025%▼

3PM2UNDER18%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

PTS11.5OVER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

FTM1UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

P+R14.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

AST4.5OVER19%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTA1UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Bub Carrington

Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM

Despite declining scoring form, Carrington maintains 4.0+ APG average over last 5 games and 4.61 season-long. As primary facilitator for Washington, assist volume is more stable than scoring. His March 14 performance (8 AST on minimal points) proves playmaking survives poor offensive nights. B2B fatigue is a risk, but the over-under split in betting suggests modest expectation.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daniss Jenkins	3	9	14	63%	75%
Duncan Robinson	4	7	5	50%	63%
Ausar Thompson	3	7	4	100%	100%
Cade Cunningham	3	5	14	36%	41%
Ronald Holland II	4	4	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 10.572%HIGH

Last 5 games: 6.8 PPG on restricted minutes (20.8 MPG). Recent games show 4 PPG vs GSW and 2 PPG vs BOS post-injury. B2B fatigue compounds concerns despite 11.5 PPG vs Detroit historically.

reboundsUNDER 3.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 average: 2.8 RPG. Minute restriction (20.8 MPG) and recent games showing 0, 2 REB limits volume. Standard deviation suggests variance, but low usage trending down.

assistsOVER 3.568%MEDIUM

Season mean 4.61, last 5 mean 4.0, recent std 1.86. Primary ball-handler role supports 4+ assist potential. March 14 vs BOS showed 8 AST despite low scoring; playmaking remains consistent.

stealsUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

Last 5: 0.4 SPG, last 10: 0.6 SPG. Season average 0.6. Recent games vs GSW and BOS: 0 steals each. Volume decline with reduced minutes makes 0.5+ unlikely.

paUNDER 14.570%HIGH

Points + Assists combined. Recent 5-game mean: 10.8 PPG + 4.0 APG = 14.8. B2B conditioning concern and last 3 games (4, 4, 2 PPG) suggest 14.5 is tight; risk staying under.

prUNDER 13.568%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds. Recent 5-game mean: 6.8 + 2.8 = 9.6. Season average 13.2, but last 5 degradation and minute reduction (20.8 MPG vs 27.2 season) push this under.

raOVER 7.564%MEDIUM

Rebounds + Assists. Last 5 mean: 2.8 + 4.0 = 6.8, last 10 mean: 2.9 + 4.0 = 6.9. Playmaking stability offsets rebounding drop; 7.5 is tight but achievable given assist floor.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS