Justin Champagnie▼

WAS · PF

PPG

8.4

RPG

5.7

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

9.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.2

8.4

9.6

RPG-1.1

5.7

4.6

APG-0.1

1.1

1.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

IND

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs IND: 0 pts

ATL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs ATL: 14 pts

ATL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ATL: 14 pts

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 12 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 13 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 8 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 12 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 5 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5STAKE

72%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

65%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

68%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

66%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

70%

P+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.5

13.3

RPG

4.4

6.0

APG

0.8

1.4

vs DET (H2H)6 games

PPG

6.8

RPG

4.8

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dominick Barlow	3	9	50%	-1.4%	medium
Jalen Johnson	2	8	68%	+12.2%	low
LeBron James	2	7	75%	+23.6%	low
Nicolas Batum	2	7	60%

Champagnie Struggles at Home vs. Detroit; Recent 8-Minute Outing a Red Flag

Justin Champagnie is on a downward trend, evidenced by declining minutes (17.4 MPG last 5 games vs. 20.7 season average) and a concerning 8-minute appearance vs. Detroit on 3/17 (5 pts, 2 reb). He significantly underperforms at home (7.5 PPG) compared to away (13.3 PPG), a 5.8-point gap. Against Detroit specifically, he averages just 6.8 PPG over 6 games. The Pistons' league-average defense (109.76 rating) won't provide relief, and Cade Cunningham held him to limited opportunities in their last matchup. Back-to-back minutes reduction is also in play.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.6(↓ from 8.4)

RPG

4.6(↓ from 5.7)

Stocks (STL+BLK)

1.6(→ from 1.5)

Home PPG

7.5(→ from 7.5)

Key Matchup

Cade Cunningham held Champagnie to limited impact in their 3/17 matchup (8 min, 5 pts). Detroit's defense (109.76 rating) is league-average but has managed Champagnie well historically (6.8 PPG vs. DET across 6 games). No obvious defensive mismatch, but Champagnie's role and minutes have contracted.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Justin Champagnie▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	20%	18	✗
Justin Champagnie▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	9	✗
Justin Champagnie▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Justin Champagnie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Justin Champagnie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Justin Champagnie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Justin Champagnie▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	27	✗
Justin Champagnie▼	P+A	9.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS12UNDER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

3PM1UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 6x5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

PRA18OVER5%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x13/2065%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

AST1OVER18%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

3PA2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

FTM1UNDER18%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

FTA1OVER4%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

REB5OVER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

Featured Pick

Justin Champagnie

Points UNDER 7.5MEDIUM

Champagnie's home scoring average (7.5 PPG) is significantly depressed vs. his away splits (13.3 PPG). Against Detroit specifically, he averages just 6.8 PPG across 6 games. His most recent outing vs. DET (3/17, 8 min) shows reduced role/minutes, a concerning trend on the second night of a back-to-back for Washington.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Duren	3	3	13	86%	86%
Tobias Harris	1	2	4	40%	40%
Isaiah Stewart	1	2	0	0%	0%
Ausar Thompson	2	2	2	50%	50%
Ronald Holland II	3	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.572%HIGH

Champagnie averages only 7.5 PPG at home and just 6.8 PPG vs. Detroit across 6 games. Recent 8-minute outing vs. DET (5 pts) and declining trend support under.

reboundsUNDER 5.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 average is 4.6 RPG, well below the 5.5 line. Home splits show 4.4 RPG, and vs. Detroit he averages 4.8 RPG. Rebounding volume has contracted recently.

assistsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Season assist average is 1.11 APG; last 5 is 1.0 APG. At home he posts just 0.8 APG. Line of 1.5 is above his typical range; limited offensive playmaking role.

stealsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Last 5 average 1.0 SPG; last 10 is 1.1 SPG. Season mean is 0.9 SPG. At home he averages 0.7 SPG, but recent form suggests modest edge to over on a single steal.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

Season average 0.6 BPG; last 5 is 0.6 BPG. At home he averages 0.6 BPG. Line is fair but recent games show inconsistency; slight lean to under given minutes uncertainty.

stocksOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

Last 5 stocks average 1.6; last 10 is 1.9. Season mean is 1.53. Recent form and defensive activity exceed 1.5 threshold despite home venue challenges.

prUNDER 14.570%HIGH

Recent points (9.6) + rebounds (4.6) = 14.2 over last 5 games. Home PPG (7.5) + home RPG (4.4) = 11.9. Under is the lean given home underperformance and DET matchup history.

paUNDER 9.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 points (9.6) + assists (1.0) = 10.6. At home PPG (7.5) + APG (0.8) = 8.3. Line sits between but home and Detroit splits favor under.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS