C
Paul Reed▼
DET · C
PPG
6.7
RPG
4.4
APG
1.1
L5 PPG
4.0
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-2.7
6.7
4.0
RPG-1.8
4.4
2.6
APG-0.9
1.1
0.2
SPG-0.7
0.9
0.2
BPG+0.3
0.9
1.2
UNDER 4.5 PTS
Last 10 games
3
Current Streak
3
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
4.5
8
OKC
2026-02-25
2026-02-25 vs OKC: 8 pts
4
CLE
2026-02-27
2026-02-27 vs CLE: 4 pts
5
ORL
2026-03-01
2026-03-01 vs ORL: 5 pts
6
SAS
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs SAS: 6 pts
10
MIA
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs MIA: 10 pts
8
BKN
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs BKN: 8 pts
6
PHI
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs PHI: 6 pts
0
MEM
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs MEM: 0 pts
4
TOR
2026-03-15
2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts
2
WAS
2026-03-17
2026-03-17 vs WAS: 2 pts
Over 4.5
Under 4.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 4.5
78%
REB
UNDER 3.5
72%
AST
UNDER 0.5
75%
STL+BLK
OVER 1
68%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
5.9
9.5
RPG
4.3
4.4
APG
0.9
0.6
vs WAS (H2H)15 games
PPG
3.3
RPG
3.3
APG
0.5
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 2 | 13 | 46% | -18.3% | low |
| Nikola Vučević | 2 | 8 | 27% | -32.7% | low |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 3 | 8 | 85% | +10.0% | medium |
| Adem Bona | 3 | 7 | 100% |
Paul Reed faces familiar foe with severe role compression
Paul Reed is in freefall, averaging just 4.0 PPG and 7.6 MPG over his last 5 games—a stark decline from his season 6.7 PPG. Most concerning: he played just 3 minutes in his most recent matchup vs Washington (3/17), scoring 2 points, signaling severely limited role definition. Against Washington's league-average defense (123.95 DRtg), Reed's minimal bench role and declining usage make production unlikely. His season splits favor away games (9.5 PPG vs 5.9 PPG home), but the Wizards hold a significant edge in their matchup history (3.27 PPG allowed to Reed over 15 meetings).
Stat Trends
PPG
4.0(↓ from 6.7)
RPG
2.6(↓ from 4.4)
MPG
7.6(↓ from 12.9)
Stocks (STL+BLK)
1.4(→ from 1.7)
Key Matchup
Washington's defense is league-average but has held Reed to just 3.27 PPG across 15 meetings with minimal impact. Key defender Anthony Gill held Reed scoreless in their recent encounter (3/17), and limited backup options suggest Reed will see restricted minutes again.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Reed▼ | Points | 4.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 40% | 10 | ✗ |
Paul Reed▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 30% | 4 | ✗ |
Paul Reed▼ | Assists | 0.5 | UNDER | 75%HIGH | — | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Paul Reed▼ | STL+BLK | 1 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
pointsUNDER 4.578%HIGH
ML Scout Analysis
PRA14OVER42%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼
P+A11UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x5/1631%▼
PTS8.5OVER12%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼
FTM1UNDER13%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼
FTA1.5OVER3%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼
P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x6/1638%▼
AST1OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/1638%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
BLK1UNDER45%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x4/1625%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼
R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼
REB5OVER23%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
Featured Pick
Paul Reed
Points UNDER 4.5HIGH
Reed's recent 3-minute appearance vs Washington with 2 points is a red flag for role restriction. His last 5 PPG of 4.0 sits comfortably below this line, and the Wizards' defensive success in their series history (3.27 PPG allowed) compounds the case. Limited playing time + familiar defensive matchup = strong downside thesis.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.