Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe | 3 | 10 | 38% | -18.0% | medium |
| Kevin Huerter | 3 | 7 | 29% | -14.4% | medium |
| Bub Carrington | 4 | 7 | 83% | +23.7% | medium |
| Anfernee Simons | 5 | 7 | 14% |
Ronald Holland II is averaging just 4.6 PPG on 18.6 MPG in five career matchups vs. Washington, well below his season average of 8.5 PPG. The Wizards' defense ranks among the league's best (123.95 rating, +2.0 scoring suppression), and Holland's recent form shows decline—last 5 games: 10.0 PPG but last 10 is 9.7 PPG with a downward trend. As an away player, Holland struggles significantly (7.4 PPG away vs. 9.7 PPG home). Combined with his poor historical matchup, expect single-digit scoring and role limitations in this contest.
Washington's elite defense (123.95 rating, +2.0 scoring suppression) combined with Bub Carrington's perimeter presence (6.8 minutes vs Holland) creates a difficult environment. Holland's 5-game head-to-head record vs Washington (4.6 PPG, 18.6 MPG) shows clear historical struggles in this specific matchup.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Holland II▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 30% | 11 | ✗ |
Ronald Holland II▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 5 | ✗ |
Ronald Holland II▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Ronald Holland II▼ | P+R | 12.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 30% | 16 | ✗ |
Ronald Holland II▼ | P+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 11 | ✗ |
Ronald Holland II▼ | R+A | 5.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
Ronald Holland II▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | 100% | 3 | ✗ |
Holland's career performance vs Washington (4.6 PPG) is 2.9 points below this line, and he's shooting poorly away from home (7.4 PPG season). The Wizards' defensive rating and recent downward trend in Holland's scoring all point to sub-8 output. The line may be slightly inflated on his recent last-5 spike, which masks underlying weakness in this specific matchup.
| medium |
| Keyonte George | 2 | 6 | 50% | -3.0% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bub Carrington | 4 | 7 | 7 | 67% | 83% |
| Sharife Cooper | 3 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Will Riley | 3 | 3 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| CJ McCollum | 1 | 3 | 10 | 60% | 60% |
| Jamir Watkins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Holland averages just 4.6 PPG vs Washington in 5 career meetings, 3.9 points below this line. Away performance (7.4 PPG) combined with elite Wizards defense (123.95 rating) and recent downward trend supports the under.
Last 5 average: 3.8 RPG. Away splits show 3.77 RPG vs 4.76 at home. Recent std dev (1.8) indicates volatility, but the trend and matchup suggest staying below 4.5.
Last 5 average: 0.8 APG; last 10: 0.7 APG. Career vs Washington: 1.0 APG. Season std dev is 1.05 but recent trend shows reduced playmaking volume. Line is too high given role constraints.
Combined points + rebounds projected at ~12.1 (7.4 away PPG + 3.77 away RPG). Holland's away-game offensive struggles make this combo line vulnerable to the under in a matchup where Washington suppresses scoring.
Points + assists = ~8.1 on away splits (7.4 + 1.2). Recent last-5 average is 10.8 PPG + 0.8 APG = 11.6, but that's inflated; last-10 is 10.4 PPG + 0.7 APG = 11.1. vs Washington form (4.6 PPG + 1.0 APG = 5.6) suggests risk to under.
Rebounds + assists = ~5.0 on away splits (3.77 + 1.2). Slight variance risk due to volatility in both categories, but the away matchup and recent APG decline (0.8 last 5) lean under.
Season SPG: 1.2; last 5: 0.4; last 10: 0.4. Clear downward trend. Wizards' scoring suppression doesn't necessarily correlate to steal opportunity. Low recent baseline favors under on elevated line.