Tobias Harris▲

DET · PF

PPG

13.3

RPG

5.1

APG

2.2

L5 PPG

9.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.5

13.3

9.8

RPG-2.3

5.1

2.8

APG-0.6

2.2

1.6

SPG-0.7

0.9

0.2

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 23 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 9 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 21 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 2 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

65%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

62%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

58%

P+R

UNDER 18.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

64%

R+A

UNDER 7.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.1

12.8

RPG

6.2

5.5

APG

2.1

1.5

vs WAS (H2H)18 games

PPG

13.0

RPG

5.9

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Brown	4	29	31%	-16.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	14	57%	+6.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	13	28%	-24.2%	low
Jalen Johnson	3	12	47%

Harris Faces Minutes Risk in Rematch vs Washington After Blowout Benching

Tobias Harris played just 8 minutes in Detroit's last matchup vs Washington on 3/17, scoring only 2 points in a blowout loss. This dramatic minutes reduction is a major red flag despite his season average of 13.3 PPG and solid 28.4 MPG overall. His last 5 games show declining production (9.8 PPG, 21.8 MPG) compared to season norms, suggesting reduced role or rotation status. Against Washington historically he averages 13.0 PPG over 18 meetings, but the recent blowout suggests the Wizards' defense and game flow may suppress his opportunities tonight.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.8(↓ from 13.3)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 5.1)

APG

1.6(↓ from 2.2)

MPG

21.8(↓ from 28.4)

Key Matchup

Washington's defense rates 123.95 (weaker defensively) but the recent blowout game suggests game script and matchup context favor reduced Harris minutes. Key defenders Kyshawn George, Justin Champagnie, and Bilal Coulibaly have minimal history vs Harris (limited minutes sample), making recent 8-minute benching a stronger indicator of usage than historical norms.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tobias Harris▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	12	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	6	✗
Tobias Harris▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✗
Tobias Harris▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Tobias Harris▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	18	✓
Tobias Harris▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	18	✗
Tobias Harris▼	R+A	7.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA24UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)8/1942%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+A17OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 7x12/1963%▼

3PA3UNDER22%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x5/1926%▼

P+R19OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

REB5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

AST3OVER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

PTS13UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x5/1926%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTM2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER2%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Tobias Harris

Points UNDER 12.5MEDIUM

Harris' last 5-game average of 9.8 PPG represents a significant decline from season 13.3, and his most recent game vs Washington resulted in just 8 minutes and 2 points. While the Wizards defense isn't elite (123.95 rating), the recent blowout loss likely signals reduced offensive role. Season 12.5 line assumes normal 28.4 MPG, but recent trend shows 21.8 MPG—a 23% reduction that directly suppresses scoring upside.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Will Riley	2	9	5	50%	63%
Tre Johnson	2	2	3	33%	50%
Anthony Gill	2	2	0	0%	0%
Justin Champagnie	1	2	8	50%	75%
Bub Carrington	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.568%MEDIUM

Harris averaged only 9.8 PPG over last 5 games with reduced minutes (21.8 MPG). His last outing vs WAS on 3/17 saw him benched with just 8 minutes and 2 points. Recent scoring trend is negative despite season average of 13.3.

reboundsUNDER 4.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 games saw only 2.8 RPG average, well below season 5.1. Reduced minutes (21.8 MPG last 5) directly correlate to fewer rebound opportunities. Home/away split shows 5.5 away RPG but last WAS game produced only 1 rebound.

assistsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

Season mean is 2.18 APG but recent mean dropped to 1.5. Last 5 games averaged 1.6 assists with limited offensive involvement. Minutes reduction directly impacts playmaking volume.

stealsUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

Last 5 games show only 0.2 SPG average, well below season 0.9. Reduced playing time (21.8 MPG) limits defensive impact opportunities. Against Washington he's been limited.

prUNDER 18.566%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds combined face headwinds. Last 5 average: 9.8 PPG + 2.8 RPG = 12.6 combined. Recent form suggests projection below 18.5 threshold.

paUNDER 15.564%MEDIUM

Points + Assists: last 5 average 9.8 + 1.6 = 11.4. Season mean is 15.44 but recent decline is significant. Minutes reduction impacts both scoring and playmaking ceiling.

raUNDER 7.563%MEDIUM

Rebounds + Assists: last 5 shows 2.8 + 1.6 = 4.4 combined, well below 7.5. Recent away game vs WAS saw minimal production (1 reb, 1 ast in 8 minutes).

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS