Tre Johnson—

WAS · SG

PPG

12.3

RPG

2.8

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

9.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.3

12.3

9.0

RPG-0.6

2.8

2.2

APG-0.4

2.0

1.6

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 8 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 15 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 20 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 3 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 7 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 5 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5STAKE

72%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

65%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

55%

P+R

UNDER 20.5STAKE

68%

P+A

UNDER 19.5STAKE

67%

R+A

UNDER 6.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.1

12.7

RPG

2.8

2.3

APG

2.1

2.0

vs DET (H2H)2 games

PPG

7.5

RPG

3.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kris Dunn	2	13	0%	-41.7%	low
Kon Knueppel	4	12	30%	-21.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	11	67%	+25.0%	medium
Jalen Pickett	2	9	0%

Tre Johnson Struggles vs Detroit; Recent Form and Matchup Suggest Under on Points

Tre Johnson is in a cold stretch, averaging just 9.0 PPG over his last 5 games on 20.6 MPG—well below his season average of 12.3 PPG. Most concerning: he's faced Detroit twice recently (last matchup 3/17), posting just 5 points in 10 minutes, suggesting limited opportunities or defensive pressure from the Pistons. Playing on a back-to-back at home (WAS is B2B), Johnson's efficiency has dipped significantly despite a stable overall trend. Detroit's defense rates 109.76 (league-average), but Johnson's 7.5 PPG average vs. DET across 2 games indicates this is a tough matchup.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.0(↓ from 12.3)

3PM

1.6(↓ from 2.0)

Assists

1.6(↓ from 2.0)

Rebounds

2.2(→ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

Key Pistons defenders Javonte Green, Ronald Holland II, and Chaz Lanier have limited recent defensive data (2–1 minutes tracked), but Johnson's 7.5 PPG in 2 prior games vs Detroit indicates the Pistons defense poses a notable challenge. Detroit's neutral defensive rating (109.76) and lack of strong scoring suppression (-1.29) suggest this is a scheme or personnel-specific issue rather than elite defense.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tre Johnson▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	80%	11	✓
Tre Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✗
Tre Johnson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	1	✓
Tre Johnson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Tre Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Tre Johnson▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	15	✓
Tre Johnson▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	12	✓
Tre Johnson▼	R+A	6.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS14.5UNDER29%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 9x3/2015%+29.4% edge▼

PRA18.5UNDER33%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x5/2025%+21.7% edge▼

P+A12.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER12%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%+20.4% edge▼

3PA5UNDER34%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB3.5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

AST2.5OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/2020%▼

FTA0.5UNDER7%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x10/2050%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tre Johnson

Points UNDER 16.5MEDIUM

Johnson's last 5-game average of 9.0 PPG sits 7.5 points below the 16.5 line. His 7.5 PPG average specifically vs DET, combined with B2B fatigue and reduced recent minutes, makes an Under play the sharper pick. The line appears priced for season average, not current form.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Duncan Robinson	3	7	11	44%	61%
Daniss Jenkins	3	3	5	40%	50%
Ronald Holland II	3	2	0	0%	0%
Tobias Harris	2	2	0	0%	0%
Javonte Green	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.572%HIGH

Johnson averages just 9.0 PPG over last 5 games and only 7.5 PPG vs DET in 2 prior matchups. B2B status on limited rest compounds concerns. Line of 16.5 is 4+ points above recent production.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

Recent average of 2.2 RPG (last 5) falls short of 3.5 line. While last 10 shows 3.0 RPG, variance is high (std: 2.28). Limited minutes on B2B further reduce rebound opportunity.

assistsUNDER 2.565%MEDIUM

Johnson's recent assist average is 1.6 APG (last 5) and 1.5 APG (last 10), significantly below the 2.5 line. Reduced minutes (20.6 MPG recently vs 23.8 season) limit playmaking volume.

stealsUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

Last 5 games show just 0.2 SPG, well below the 0.5 line. Season average of 0.6 is modest; recent trend is downward despite 1 steal in 5 of last 10 games showing inconsistency.

blocksUNDER 0.555%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 0.2 BPG. Last 10 games: 0.4 BPG. Season average of 0.3 indicates blocks are a low-volume category. Limited defensive opportunities on B2B.

prUNDER 20.568%MEDIUM

Recent P+R average: 9.0 + 2.2 = 11.2 (last 5 games). Even factoring last 10 (10.2 + 3.0 = 13.2), the 20.5 line is inflated relative to current form. Difficult matchup vs DET compounds projection.

paUNDER 19.567%MEDIUM

Recent P+A: 9.0 + 1.6 = 10.6 (last 5). Last 10 shows 10.2 + 1.5 = 11.7. Line of 19.5 significantly exceeds recent combined production, especially given lower assist volume.

raUNDER 6.561%MEDIUM

Recent R+A: 2.2 + 1.6 = 3.8 (last 5 games). Last 10: 3.0 + 1.5 = 4.5. Line of 6.5 is well above recent trends; assists have been particularly weak.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS