Will Riley—

WAS · SF

PPG

8.5

RPG

2.6

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.9

8.5

13.4

RPG+1.2

2.6

3.8

APG+0.5

1.7

2.2

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

TOR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs TOR: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 7 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 13 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 19 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 22 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 8 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 5 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 11 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5

76%

REB

OVER 3.5

72%

AST

OVER 2

70%

3PM

OVER 1.5

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1

65%

PRA

OVER 19.5

74%

P+A

OVER 14.5

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.6

15.6

RPG

2.6

4.7

APG

2.0

2.5

vs DET (H2H)2 games

PPG

15.5

RPG

3.5

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tristan da Silva	3	11	17%	-29.0%	medium
Jayson Tatum	1	7	64%	+11.4%	low
Kevin Huerter	3	6	20%	-25.7%	medium
Zach LaVine	2	6	17%

Riley Rides Hot Form at Home Against Pistons' Porous Defense

Will Riley has elevated his game significantly over the last 10 games (14.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.3 APG on 30.2 MPG) compared to his season average, displaying stable consistency with expanded minutes. Playing at home tonight where he logs 23.5 MPG seasonally, Riley matches up against Detroit's league-average defense (109.76 rating, -1.29 scoring suppression) with limited wingspanning—key defenders average minimal minutes and have allowed 4 points across limited sample. His recent success vs. DET (15.5 PPG on 19.5 MPG in 2 games) and solid underlying efficiency (43.4% FG, 33.1% 3PT) position him well for another strong outing on a back-to-back where he's been productive.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↑ from 8.5)

RPG

3.8(↑ from 2.6)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.7)

3P Made

2.2(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Detroit's key wing defenders (Ronald Holland II, Kevin Huerter, Javonte Green) have averaged minimal floor time and limited impact in head-to-head samples. With a league-average defensive rating (109.76) and no major scoring suppression, Riley should see favorable looks as a starter on the wing.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Will Riley▼	Points	12.5	OVER	76%HIGH	1/2	60%	21	✓
Will Riley▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	50%	3	✗
Will Riley▼	Assists	2	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	1	✗
Will Riley▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Will Riley▼	STL+BLK	1	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Will Riley▼	PRA	19.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	50%	25	✓
Will Riley▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS21.5UNDER19%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+26.7% edge▼

FTA3.5OVER5%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA30.5UNDER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+24.4% edge▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A20OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x11/2055%▼

REB4.5UNDER31%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)5/2025%+17.0% edge▼

3PA5UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1.5UNDER1%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%+15.6% edge▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

AST3.5OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

FTM3UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Will Riley

Points OVER 12.5MEDIUM

Riley's last 10 average of 14.4 PPG combined with his recent 13.4 PPG (last 5) and favorable Detroit matchup (109.76 DEF rating, -1.29 suppression) make a modest 12.5 line attractive. While the March 17 blowout (10 min vs DET) introduces variance, his elevated baseline and expanded role suggest he clears this threshold in most scenarios.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kevin Huerter	3	6	2	20%	20%
Ausar Thompson	3	6	8	80%	80%
Tobias Harris	2	5	3	33%	33%
Ronald Holland II	3	5	0	0%	0%
Duncan Robinson	3	4	3	33%	50%

pointsOVER 12.576%HIGH

Riley averages 13.4 PPG over last 5 games and 14.4 PPG over last 10, with expanded 30.2 MPG minutes. Despite a recent blowout (10 min vs DET on 3/17), his season trajectory and upcoming matchup vs. Detroit's permissive defense (109.76 rating) support an over on a reasonable 12.5 line.

reboundsOVER 3.572%HIGH

Riley has posted 3.8 RPG last 5 and 3.2 RPG last 10 with elevated minutes. His away splits show 4.7 RPG, but tonight he's at home where recent form (3.8 over last 5) justifies a modest over on 3.5.

assistsOVER 270%HIGH

Riley averages 2.2 APG last 5 and 2.3 APG last 10 with recent_mean of 2.6. Even accounting for his home/away split showing slightly better performance away, his recent consistency supports a play on an even 2.0 line.

threesOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

Riley has shot 2.2 3P made last 5 games and 1.7 last 10 on elevated minutes. His recent_mean of 1.8 3PM aligns with an over on 1.5, supported by his improved three-point volume and consistent attempts in recent outings.

stocksUNDER 165%MEDIUM

Stocks (STL+BLK) average 0.4 last 5 and 0.7 last 10 with high variance (recent_std 0.98). Season mean is 0.72; Riley's defensive production has been inconsistent and doesn't reliably hit 1.0 even with expanded minutes.

praOVER 19.574%HIGH

Summing recent averages: 13.4 PPG + 3.8 RPG + 2.2 APG = 19.4 over last 5. Riley's recent form and elevated 30.2 MPG support an over on 19.5 in a favorable matchup.

paOVER 14.572%HIGH

Points + Assists: 13.4 PPG + 2.2 APG = 15.6 over last 5. Riley's recent consistency in both categories on expanded minutes makes this a solid over on a 14.5 line.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS