Aaron Nesmith▲

IND · PG

PPG

13.5

RPG

4.3

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

17.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.3

13.5

17.8

RPG-1.9

4.3

2.4

APG-0.3

2.1

1.8

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

MIL

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs MIL: 12 pts

TOR

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs TOR: 7 pts

NYK

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs NYK: 11 pts

WAS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs WAS: 3 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 2 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 7 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 29 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 32 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5BOVADA

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5BOVADA

62%

AST

UNDER 2.5

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5BOVADA

55%

P+R

UNDER 18.5BOVADA

64%

R+A

UNDER 6.5BOVADA

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.9

12.3

RPG

3.9

3.5

APG

2.0

vs NYK (H2H)15 games

PPG

8.9

RPG

3.7

APG

0.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	2	11	38%	-8.1%	low
Luka Dončić	2	10	43%	-8.1%	low
Jalen Brunson	2	10	44%	-3.9%	low
Amen Thompson	2	9	0%	-41.4%

Nesmith's Hot Streak Faces Stern Knicks Defense; Recent Game Log Shows Vulnerability vs NYK

Aaron Nesmith has surged to 17.8 PPG over his last 5 games, but context matters heavily here. In his two most recent matchups vs NYK (3/13 and 2/10), he averaged just 11.5 PPG on 36% FG—well below season norms—despite significant playing time. The Knicks' defense rates 110.61 in efficiency with slight scoring suppression (-1.091), and Jalen Brunson has held opposing guards to a 54.5% FG rate over their matchups. Nesmith's right ankle injury status (available as of 3/18) adds caution, though he played 29 minutes just 3 days prior vs Milwaukee. The recent form is real, but the NYK-specific split and defensive pressure make this a contrarian spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.8(↑ from 13.5)

3PM

2.4(→ from 2.3)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 4.3)

APG

1.8(↓ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

Jalen Brunson has allowed just 54.5% FG to opposing guards in matchups with Nesmith, and the Knicks' overall defensive rating of 110.61 is above average. Nesmith's career 8.9 PPG vs NYK (15 games) stands 4.6 points below his season average, signaling consistent suppression by this defense.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Aaron Nesmith▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	14	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	0	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	4	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	15	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	R+A	6.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	52%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

PTS14UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

REB2OVER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

PRA18.5UNDER20%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER55%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x5/2025%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

AST1UNDER10%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM2UNDER26%gbt_three_pmAvoid (5/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER29%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Nesmith

Points UNDER 16.5MEDIUM

Nesmith's L5 surge to 17.8 PPG is partially inflated by a 32-point outlier vs Milwaukee. His two most recent NYK games (12 and 11 points) and career 8.9 PPG split vs this opponent suggest 16.5 overestimates his likely output. Bovada's +175 over odds indicate sharp wiseguys are fading the points total, a contrarian signal worth respecting.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	2	10	18	38%	44%
Mikal Bridges	2	6	4	40%	40%
Landry Shamet	2	6	3	33%	33%
OG Anunoby	2	2	5	67%	83%
Jordan Clarkson	3	2	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 16.568%MEDIUM

Nesmith averages just 8.9 PPG vs NYK (15 games), and his last two meetings vs the Knicks saw 12 and 11 points despite 34+ minutes in one. The Knicks' defensive pressure and Brunson's individual matchup quality suggest regression from the 17.8 L5 average.

reboundsUNDER 4.562%MEDIUM

Season 4.3 RPG masks recent L5 decline to 2.4; L10 sits at 2.7. At 4.5, this is betting on regression to season mean. Away split (3.61 RPG) and NYK matchup history (3.73 RPG) don't justify the premium line.

assistsUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

Nesmith's season APG of 2.05 and recent average of 1.4 (L10) are both below this line. vs NYK, he averages 0.87 APG across 15 games—a major tell that playmaking dries up against this opponent.

threesUNDER 2.555%MEDIUM

Season 3PM of 2.26 appears solid, but L5 average of 2.4 and away-game L5 trend show volatility. Recent games vs NYK (3/13: 1 made on 5 attempts, 2/10: 1 made on 3) suggest defensive intensity suppresses volume and efficiency.

prUNDER 18.564%MEDIUM

With PPG projected under 16.5 and RPG under 4.5, a combined P+R of 18.5 is optimistic. His NYK-specific average (PPG 8.9 + RPG 3.73) totals ~12.6, a 6-point gap below this line.

raUNDER 6.560%MEDIUM

R+A average this season is 6.35 (4.3 + 2.05), but recent windows collapse it: L5 is 4.2, L10 is 4.1. vs NYK he averages 4.57, making 6.5 ambitious despite the near-season-parity line.

stocksUNDER 1.552%MEDIUM

Stocks (STL+BLK) season mean is 1.15 with std of 1.03—high variance. L5 average 1.2 and L10 average 1.1 cluster well below 1.5. Recent game vs NYK (3/13) recorded 1 stock in 34 minutes.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS