Jalen Brunson▲

NYK · PG

PPG

26.3

RPG

3.4

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

27.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

26.3

27.8

RPG+0.6

3.4

4.0

APG+1.6

6.6

8.2

SPG+0.6

0.8

1.4

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

25.5

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 27 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 26 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 28 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 28 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 29 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 30 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5STAKE

55%

AST

OVER 5.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

62%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

70%

P+A

UNDER 31.5STAKE

60%

P+R

UNDER 29.5STAKE

58%

R+A

OVER 9.5STAKE

72%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

65%

OVER 2.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

29.3

21.7

RPG

4.3

3.8

APG

8.9

7.2

vs IND (H2H)15 games

PPG

25.9

RPG

3.9

APG

5.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anthony Black	4	17	71%	+11.9%	medium
Tristan da Silva	4	15	39%	-13.1%	medium
VJ Edgecombe	3	14	73%	+15.1%	medium
Tre Jones	4	13	50%

Brunson's Ankle Injury Casts Shadow on Home Scoring Upside vs. Pacers

Jalen Brunson is listed as Doubtful with a right ankle injury, which significantly dampens confidence in all prop outcomes. When healthy, he has been in excellent form—averaging 27.8 PPG over his last 5 games with elevated assists (8.2 APG). At home, Brunson averages 29.3 PPG and 8.9 APG, well above season norms. However, he just faced Indiana on 2026-03-13 and posted 29 PPG with 9 AST in an away game, showing consistency vs. this opponent (25.9 PPG lifetime). The injury status and uncertain playing time availability create significant variance and warrant caution despite strong underlying metrics.

Stat Trends

PPG

27.8(↑ from 26.3)

APG

8.2(↑ from 6.6)

Home PPG

27.8(→ from 29.3)

FG3M

2.2(→ from 2.8)

SPG

1.4(↑ from 0.8)

Key Matchup

Andrew Nembhard logged 36.1 minutes as the primary Pacers guard defender and allowed 41 points to opposing ball-handlers recently (48.4% FG). However, Brunson faces a weaker overall Pacers defense (119.91 DRTG, +6.9% scoring suppression) but with ankle injury uncertainty, his ability to attack and create is in question despite home court advantage.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jalen Brunson▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Jalen Brunson▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%
Jalen Brunson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Jalen Brunson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	70%
Jalen Brunson▼	P+A	31.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jalen Brunson▼	P+R	29.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Jalen Brunson▼	R+A	9.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	100%
Jalen Brunson▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Jalen Brunson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	—	80%
Jalen Brunson▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R27OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%▼

PTS25UNDER44%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB3.5UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM2UNDER27%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

3PA6UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTA6UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA37UNDER41%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+A32UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST8UNDER11%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM4UNDER23%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Brunson

Assists OVER 5.5MEDIUM

Brunson's last 10 games average 9.1 APG with recent 5-game average of 8.2 APG. At home he averages 8.9 APG. Even if ankle injury limits minutes slightly, his playmaking is elite and unlikely to drop below 6 assists in a full or near-full game. The 5.5 line is conservative relative to his recent form. CAVEAT: Doubtful status creates execution risk—only play if he clears injury report.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jarace Walker	2	8	5	20%	20%
Andrew Nembhard	3	5	21	47%	59%
Quenton Jackson	1	4	3	50%	75%
Aaron Nesmith	2	4	0	0%	0%
Ben Sheppard	2	3	7	60%	70%

pointsUNDER 25.555%MEDIUM

Brunson is Doubtful with right ankle injury. While he averages 29.3 PPG at home and has been hot (27.8 last 5), the injury status creates uncertainty around playing time and efficiency. If he plays, expect reduced minutes and caution on the leg.

assistsOVER 5.568%MEDIUM

Brunson's last 5 average 8.2 APG and last 10 average 9.1 APG. At home he averages 8.9 APG. Even with potential minutes reduction from injury, his passing volume and home court advantage suggest he stays over 5.5 if active.

reboundsUNDER 3.562%MEDIUM

Season average is 3.4 RPG; recent 5-game mean 4.0 RPG. At home 3.39 RPG. With ankle injury likely reducing mobility and minutes, the line sits at his season mark—lean under given the injury context.

stealsOVER 0.570%HIGH

Last 5 games average 1.4 SPG; season 0.8 SPG. Brunson has elevated his defensive activity recently. Even with reduced minutes from injury, 0.5 is a low threshold he's exceeded in most recent contests.

paUNDER 31.560%MEDIUM

Points + Assists combined. Season PPG 26.3 + APG 6.6 = 32.9 implied. Last 5 shows 27.8 + 8.2 = 36.0. Injury uncertainty casts doubt; if minutes limited, expect regression toward lower output overall.

prUNDER 29.558%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds. Season: 26.3 + 3.4 = 29.7. Home metrics are better (29.3 + 4.3 = 33.6), but injury context and minutes uncertainty make the line tight; lean under given risk.

raOVER 9.572%HIGH

Rebounds + Assists combined. Last 10: 3.9 + 9.1 = 13.0. Last 5: 4.0 + 8.2 = 12.2. Even with injury, this combo leans high given his recent assist volume; 9.5 is achievable if he plays significant minutes.

threesUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

Season average 2.77 FG3M, recent 5-game 2.2. Ankle injury may reduce movement and range. Line at 2.5 is near recent average; injury makes under the safer lean.

stocksUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

Steals + Blocks combined. Season 0.88, last 5 average 1.6 (STL+BLK). Recent hot streak defensively, but ankle injury typically reduces lateral movement and block attempts; lean under on elevated line.

turnoversOVER 2.566%MEDIUM

Last 5 average 3.6 TOV. Last 10 average 2.7 TOV. Season 2.4. Recent games show elevated turnover activity; expect 2.5-3.0 range even with injury reducing minutes.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS