SG
Jose Alvarado▲
NYK · SG
PPG
7.2
RPG
2.5
APG
3.3
L5 PPG
1.6
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-5.6
7.2
1.6
RPG-1.7
2.5
0.8
APG+0.1
3.3
3.4
SPG-0.5
0.9
0.4
BPG-0.1
0.1
0.0
UNDER 17.5 PTS
Last 10 games
10
Current Streak
10
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
17.5
7
MIL
2026-02-27
2026-02-27 vs MIL: 7 pts
3
SAS
2026-03-01
2026-03-01 vs SAS: 3 pts
4
TOR
2026-03-03
2026-03-03 vs TOR: 4 pts
3
OKC
2026-03-04
2026-03-04 vs OKC: 3 pts
4
DEN
2026-03-06
2026-03-06 vs DEN: 4 pts
0
LAL
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs LAL: 0 pts
0
LAC
2026-03-09
2026-03-09 vs LAC: 0 pts
4
UTA
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs UTA: 4 pts
0
IND
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 vs IND: 0 pts
4
GSW
2026-03-15
2026-03-15 vs GSW: 4 pts
Over 17.5
Under 17.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 17.5FANDUEL
72%
AST
UNDER 8.5FANDUEL
68%
REB
UNDER 3.5
65%
3PM
UNDER 4.5FANDUEL
78%
STL+BLK
UNDER 2
70%
P+A
UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS
70%
P+R
UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS
71%
R+A
UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS
72%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
4.7
6.4
RPG
1.7
2.1
APG
4.2
3.1
vs IND (H2H)9 games
PPG
4.7
RPG
2.1
APG
2.7
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 4 | 10 | 88% | +33.5% | medium |
| Reed Sheppard | 3 | 9 | 138% | +58.5% | medium |
| Collin Sexton | 4 | 8 | 75% | +8.5% | medium |
| Austin Reaves | 3 | 8 | 85% |
Alvarado Sharp in Assist Role, but Minutes and Scoring Remain Concerns
Jose Alvarado is in a difficult spot: his last 5 games show just 1.6 PPG on 11.6 MPG—well below his season average of 7.2 PPG on 20.3 MPG. However, his assist rate has held steady (3.4 APG last 5), and he's home against Indiana, where he historically performs better (4.7 PPG at home vs. 6.4 away). Against Indiana specifically, Alvarado has averaged 4.7 PPG and 2.7 APG over 9 games, with a recent meeting on 3/13 yielding just 0 points in 13 minutes. The Pacers' defense is porous (119.91 DEFRTG, +6.9% scoring suppression), but Alvarado's dramatic recent scoring collapse and reduced minutes—especially in a backup role—make volume-dependent props risky.
Stat Trends
PPG
1.6(↓ from 7.2)
APG
3.4(→ from 3.3)
MPG
11.6(↓ from 20.3)
SPG
0.4(↓ from 0.9)
Key Matchup
T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton, and Andrew Nembhard have limited Alvarado in recent matchups; McConnell held him to 0.5 PPG per 60 min, though Haliburton allowed 1.5 PPG per 60. Indiana's league-worst DEFRTG (119.91) is neutralized by Alvarado's current role compression and shooting drought—no specific defender is the issue; it's his diminished usage.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Alvarado▼ | Points | 17.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 100% | 16 | ✓ |
Jose Alvarado▼ | Assists | 8.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 100% | 10 | ✗ |
Jose Alvarado▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
Jose Alvarado▼ | 3PM | 4.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 100% | 4 | ✓ |
Jose Alvarado▼ | STL+BLK | 2 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 100% | 2 | ✗ |
Jose Alvarado▼ | P+A | 25.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 100% | 26 | ✗ |
Jose Alvarado▼ | P+R | 18.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 100% | 18 | ✓ |
Jose Alvarado▼ | R+A | 10.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 100% | 12 | ✗ |
pointsUNDER 17.572%HIGH
ML Scout Analysis
PRA11.5OVER4%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)8/1650%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼
P+R8UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/1644%▼
P+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)7/1644%▼
PTS4UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)7/1644%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼
REB1.5UNDER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)8/1650%▼
3PA2UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)6/1638%▼
AST4UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/1638%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼
R+A6OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/1650%▼
Featured Pick
Jose Alvarado
Points UNDER 17.5HIGH
Alvarado's last 5 games average 1.6 PPG on just 11.6 MPG—a dramatic 78% drop from his season 7.2 PPG mark. Even accounting for increased home minutes, his recent shooting form (2-of-12 FG last 5) and reduced role make 17.5 an outlier. FanDuel's line assumes near-season-average output; recent production does not justify it. UNDER is the clear edge.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.