Josh Hart▼

NYK · PF

PPG

11.7

RPG

7.6

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

11.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.7

11.7

11.0

RPG+2.0

7.6

9.6

APG-2.1

5.1

3.0

SPG-0.7

1.1

0.4

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

CHI

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs CHI: 11 pts

CLE

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CLE: 10 pts

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 10 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 7 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

72%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

62%

3PM

UNDER 1

64%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.4

61%

P+R

UNDER 18.5STAKE

59%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

60%

R+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

70%

PRA

UNDER 29.5BOVADA

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

11.6

RPG

8.1

6.7

APG

5.2

4.7

vs IND (H2H)16 games

PPG

13.0

RPG

9.3

APG

4.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	4	19	57%	-2.5%	medium
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	4	16	64%	+11.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	12	56%	-6.2%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	10	59%

Hart Poised for Rebound Production at Home vs. Pacers Defense

Josh Hart returns to Madison Square Garden against Indiana's permissive defense (119.91 rating, -0.554 three suppression). His recent form shows a downward trend in scoring (11.0 PPG last 5 games vs. 11.7 season) but elevated rebounding (9.6 RPG last 5). Hart has historically excelled against the Pacers (13.0 PPG, 9.25 RPG over 16 matchups) and performs better at home (8.1 RPG vs. 6.7 away). With 2 days rest and no back-to-back, expect Hart to focus on his versatile role as a role player contributing across the stat sheet.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.0(↓ from 11.7)

RPG

9.6(↑ from 7.6)

APG

3.0(↓ from 5.1)

3PM

0.8(↓ from 1.4)

STL

0.4(↓ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Aaron Nesmith (21.3 MPG defender) is the primary assignment, allowing 14 PPG on 50% FG. Indiana's overall defense is sluggish (119.91 rating), but Hart's scoring has been inconsistent recently. The Pacers' -0.554 three suppression helps shut down Hart's perimeter, though his 38% season 3PT% keeps some offensive upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Josh Hart▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	33	✗
Josh Hart▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	7	✗
Josh Hart▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	5	✓
Josh Hart▼	3PM	1	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✗
Josh Hart▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Josh Hart▼	STL+BLK	1.4	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Josh Hart▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	40	✗
Josh Hart▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	38	✗
Josh Hart▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	60%	12	✗
Josh Hart▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	45	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER34%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM1UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTA2UNDER54%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 6x4/2020%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

PRA24UNDER38%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x9/2045%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

REB6.5OVER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM0.5UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST4UNDER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER44%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

3PA3UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

R+A11.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Hart

Rebounds OVER 7.5MEDIUM

Hart's last 5 games average 9.6 RPG with elevated activity. At home (8.1 RPG split vs. 6.7 away), combined with Indiana's weak interior defense and Hart's role uptick on the boards, 7.5 is a soft line. His recent game logs (12 reb vs. GSW, 13 reb vs. LAC, 12 reb vs. OKC) demonstrate consistent glass presence.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jarace Walker	1	3	5	40%	50%
Obi Toppin	1	2	12	100%	120%
Andrew Nembhard	1	2	0	0%	0%
Aaron Nesmith	2	1	0	0%	0%
Jay Huff	2	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 11.558%MEDIUM

Hart's last 5 games average 11.0 PPG with a tight 2.83 std dev, suggesting consistent low-volume scoring. Recent game vs. GSW (7 pts) and LAL (8 pts) indicate suppressed offensive production.

reboundsOVER 7.572%HIGH

Last 5 games average 9.6 RPG; Hart is +1.5 RPG at home (8.1) vs. away splits. Against Indiana's weaker interior, he should exceed 7.5 with elevated activity on the glass.

assistsUNDER 5.562%MEDIUM

Last 5 APG dropped to 3.0; even last 10 sits at 4.4. Season average 5.05 is skewed by earlier-season highs. Recent trend suggests Hart's playmaking role has diminished.

threesUNDER 164%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 0.8 3PM; last 10: 1.0 3PM. Hart's recent games show inconsistency (1 game with 2 threes vs. multiple with 0). Projecting 0.9 suggests under 1.0 is reasonable.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 steals average just 0.4 SPG; last 10 is 0.8. Recent stretch shows Hart not generating consistent defensive activity. Line at 1.5 is well above recent form.

stocksUNDER 1.461%MEDIUM

Season mean 1.4; last 5 stocks just 0.4 (steals + blocks combined). While last 10 rebounds to 1.1, recent defensive output is muted. Tight call; slight edge to under.

prUNDER 18.559%MEDIUM

Points trending down (11.0 L5) while rebounds elevated (9.6 L5) gives roughly 20.6 total. Home boost helps rebounds, but depressed scoring keeps P+R below 18.5 line.

paUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

Last 5: 11.0 PPG + 3.0 APG = 14.0. Even with slight home bump, Hart's recent playmaking decline keeps this under 15.5.

raOVER 12.570%HIGH

Last 5: 9.6 RPG + 3.0 APG = 12.6. Home court (8.1 RPG home split) pushes rebounds higher while assists remain depressed; R+A should clear 12.5.

praUNDER 29.556%MEDIUM

Last 5 average: 11.0 + 9.6 + 3.0 = 23.6. Even accounting for home boost (~2 rebound advantage), PRA lands ~25-27, below the 29.5 line.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS