Karl-Anthony Towns—

NYK · C

PPG

20.0

RPG

11.9

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

23.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.0

20.0

23.0

RPG+0.1

11.9

12.0

APG+1.1

2.9

4.0

SPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

BPG0.0

0.6

OVER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

25.5

CLE

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CLE: 14 pts

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 21 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 17 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 25 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 35 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 17 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 25.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

OVER 10.5FANDUEL

75%

AST

UNDER 3.5BOVADA

68%

3PM

UNDER 1.5BOVADA

72%

BLK

UNDER 0.5FANDUEL

70%

P+A

OVER 26.5BOVADA

76%

P+R

OVER 35.5BOVADA

74%

PRA

OVER 39.5BOVADA

72%

R+A

OVER 15.5BOVADA

73%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.1

20.8

RPG

13.3

11.5

APG

2.2

3.5

vs IND (H2H)10 games

PPG

28.5

RPG

11.6

APG

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kel'el Ware	4	21	79%	+14.4%	medium
Nic Claxton	4	19	18%	-31.7%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	19	80%	+20.1%	medium
Neemias Queta	3	16	67%

KAT Primed for Scoring Surge vs. Pacers' Porous Defense

Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 28.5 PPG against Indiana across 10 head-to-head matchups, significantly above his season average of 20.0 PPG. The Pacers rank 119.91 in defensive rating and allow 1.069x expected scoring—bottom-tier defense that has been exploited by Towns historically. His last 5 games show 23.0 PPG with elevated playmaking (4.0 APG), and he's cleared from injury as of March 16. Tonight at home, KAT has upside against a weak Pacers perimeter and interior defense.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.0(↑ from 20.0)

RPG

12.0(→ from 11.9)

APG

4.0(↑ from 2.9)

vs IND (Career)

(→ from 28.5)

Key Matchup

Indiana's key defenders—Obi Toppin (5.9 min, 9 pts allowed), Jarace Walker (3.7 min, 0 pts allowed), and Tyrese Haliburton (3.6 min, 16 pts allowed)—will struggle to contain Towns. Haliburton's 54.5% FG allowed in limited minutes reflects Indiana's perimeter weakness. KAT's size and skill exploit their interior and perimeter defense equally.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Points	25.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	10%	22	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Rebounds	10.5	OVER	75%HIGH	1/2	80%	11	✓
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✓
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	80%	2	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	50%	1	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	P+A	26.5	OVER	76%HIGH	2/2	40%	24	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	P+R	35.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	20%	33	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	PRA	39.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	20%	35	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	R+A	15.5	OVER	73%HIGH	1/2	40%	13	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

PTS21UNDER41%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

AST2OVER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER37%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA3.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA35UNDER20%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB12UNDER26%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM3UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

FTA4UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Karl-Anthony Towns

Points OVER 25.5HIGH

Towns has a 28.5 PPG head-to-head average vs Indiana (10 games) and is averaging 23.0 PPG in his last 5 contests. The Pacers allow 1.069x expected scoring with a 119.91 defensive rating. FanDuel's 25.5 line is conservative given KAT's historical dominance of this matchup and recent scoring trend.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ivica Zubac	1	7	6	43%	43%
Jay Huff	2	3	7	75%	75%
Andrew Nembhard	1	2	3	50%	75%
Kobe Brown	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jalen Slawson	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 25.578%HIGH

Towns averages 28.5 PPG vs Indiana historically and 23.0 PPG in his last 5 games. The Pacers' defense (119.91 rating) is weak, and KAT is cleared from injury with momentum.

reboundsOVER 10.575%HIGH

Season average 11.9 RPG with 12.0 last 5 games. At home, he averages 13.3 RPG. Line is artificially low; KAT should clear this with ease.

assistsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 average is 4.0 APG, but season mean is 2.91 and recent 10-game average 3.1 shows volatility (std 2.39). Line of 3.5 is slightly elevated; lean under with moderate confidence.

threesUNDER 1.572%HIGH

Season average 1.56 3PM with recent mean 1.1 (last 5: 1.6). Last 5 includes variance, but recent 10-game trend (1.1) and high std (1.31) suggest under is safer.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

Season 0.6 BPG with recent 10-game average 0.6, but last 20 drops to 0.4 BPG. Inconsistent shot-blocker; line at 0.5 is reasonable, slight lean under.

paOVER 26.576%HIGH

Points + Assists: 20 PPG (season) + 2.9 APG = 22.9 baseline. Last 5 shows 23.0 PPG + 4.0 APG = 27.0 average. Trend favors over at 26.5.

prOVER 35.574%HIGH

Points + Rebounds: 20 + 11.9 = 31.9 season baseline. Last 5 is 23.0 + 12.0 = 35.0, near the line. Recent form and home court advantage push this over 35.5.

praOVER 39.572%HIGH

Points + Rebounds + Assists: Season 20 + 11.9 + 2.9 = 34.8. Last 5 is 23.0 + 12.0 + 4.0 = 39.0. Against weak Pacers defense, upside to exceed 39.5.

raOVER 15.573%HIGH

Rebounds + Assists: Last 5 average 12.0 + 4.0 = 16.0. Season 11.9 + 2.9 = 14.8. Recent trend supports over; momentum and home court help.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Season average stocks (steals + blocks) 1.44 with recent mean 1.2. SPG 0.9 season and 0.6 last 5. Variance high; line at 1.5 is tough for this volume.

timelineOVER 25.5 PTS