Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivica Zubac | 3 | 13 | 64% | -8.7% | medium |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 2 | 13 | 75% | +2.7% | low |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 4 | 12 | 60% | -32.3% | medium |
| Nikola Vučević | 3 | 11 | 68% |
Mitchell Robinson is trending up over his last 5 games (10.8 RPG, 7.8 PPG) and returns to Madison Square Garden where he's averaging 19.6 MPG. He dominated Indiana just 2 days ago (12 PTS, 22 REB in 31 MIN), and now faces the Pacers again at home with favorable rest (2 days since last game). Indiana's defense ranks 119.91 in defensive rating—moderately exploitable—and Robinson's season average vs. the Pacers (10.3 RPG, 8.3 PPG over 11 games) supports strong projection for both boards and scoring.
Ivica Zubac is the primary defender on Robinson with 8.1 minutes of matchup time, allowing 9 PTS on 57% FG. However, Robinson's recent 22-rebound performance vs. Indiana suggests he found space on the glass; Zubac's limited defensive impact on board activity may persist.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Rebounds | 9.5 | OVER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | 8 | ✗ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Points | 6 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 30% | 8 | ✓ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | STL+BLK | 2 | STABLE | 65%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Assists | 1 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 3 | ✗ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | R+A | 9.5 | OVER | 74%HIGH | 1/2 | 50% | 11 | ✓ |
Robinson posted 22 rebounds vs. Indiana 2 days ago and averages 10.3 RPG in 11 career games against the Pacers. His L5 rebound average of 10.8 is well above the 9.5 line, and home court (19.6 MPG) with proper rest support sustained production. The Pacers' 119.91 defensive rating presents no rim-protection concern.
| medium |
| Kel'el Ware | 3 | 10 | 71% | -15.2% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivica Zubac | 2 | 10 | 11 | 63% | 63% |
| Jay Huff | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jarace Walker | 2 | 2 | 9 | 67% | 75% |
| Jalen Slawson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Andrew Nembhard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Robinson averages 10.8 RPG over last 5 games and 10.3 RPG vs. Indiana specifically. His recent game vs. IND (22 REB) and home environment (7.4 RPG home split, though limited sample) support exceeding 9.5.
Last 5 PPG is 7.8, and Robinson scored 12 PTS vs. Indiana 2 games ago. Season mean vs. Indiana is 8.3 PPG across 11 games, suggesting 6.0 is a soft line.
Consistent performer at 2.2 stocks (L5) and 2.0 season average. Indiana's defense doesn't suppress steals/blocks, making a push near this line likely.
Robinson averages 0.8 APG over L10 and 0.7 over L20, with high variance (std 1.17). Limited playmaking role keeps this under projection slightly depressed.
Rebound+Assist combo at 9.5 is conservative given 10.8 RPG (L5) + 0.8 APG (L10). Robinson likely clears 9.5 R+A on rebounding volume alone.