Obi Toppin▲

IND · PF

PPG

8.4

RPG

4.4

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.2

8.4

8.6

RPG-0.6

4.4

3.8

APG-0.4

1.6

1.2

SPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

MEM

2025-10-25

2025-10-25 vs MEM: 13 pts

MIN

2025-10-26

2025-10-26 vs MIN: 9 pts

CHA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs CHA: 3 pts

MEM

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MEM: 4 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 2 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 4 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 17 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 11 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5

62%

REB

UNDER 4.5

58%

AST

UNDER 1.5

65%

3PM

OVER 1

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 0.5

72%

PRA

UNDER 14.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 6

61%

P+R

UNDER 12.8

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

9.7

RPG

4.6

4.3

APG

2.3

1.4

vs NYK (H2H)6 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

3.5

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Isaiah Hartenstein	1	5	0%	-49.3%	low
OG Anunoby	2	4	133%	+50.7%	low
Santi Aldama	1	4	50%	+0.7%	low
Josh Hart	1	3	117%

Toppin Faces Knicks in Familiar Matchup with Limited Volume Outlook

Obi Toppin heads to Madison Square Garden where he's averaged 9.3 PPG and 3.5 RPG across 6 prior meetings with the Knicks, including a recent 9-point outing on March 13. However, his role remains constrained at 16.5 MPG this season with inconsistent scoring (8.4 PPG, 6.15 std dev). Recent form shows volatility—he dropped 17 against Sacramento but scored just 2-4 points in three of his last six games. Limited playing time (13.8 MPG last 5 games) and modest per-minute efficiency (0.4 FG%) make him a risky prop play despite the familiar opponent.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↑ from 8.4)

RPG

3.8(↓ from 4.4)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.6)

3PM

1.6(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

Josh Hart and OG Anunoby have allowed 13 and 10 points respectively in prior matchups against Toppin, though sample sizes are small. The Knicks' defense (110.61 rating) is league-average; no specific defensive advantage or disadvantage identified.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Obi Toppin▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	15	✗
Obi Toppin▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✓
Obi Toppin▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✗
Obi Toppin▼	3PM	1	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
Obi Toppin▼	STL+BLK	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Obi Toppin▼	PRA	14.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	21	✗
Obi Toppin▼	P+A	6	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	18	✗
Obi Toppin▼	P+R	12.8	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11UNDER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

P+R15.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)7/1937%▼

AST3UNDER14%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)5/1926%▼

3PA5UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/1937%▼

REB4UNDER18%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)6/1932%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)7/1937%▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)10/1953%▼

FTM0.5UNDER21%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTA0.5UNDER6%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA17OVER3%gbt_praAvoid (6/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1OVER23%gbt_three_pmAvoid (5/20)OVER 2x9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Obi Toppin

3-Pointers OVER 1.0MEDIUM

Toppin has shot 3-for-6 and 3-for-7 from three in his last two games vs NYK, indicating increased reliance on three-point volume. His last 5 average 1.6 FG3M compared to season 1.0, and he's trending up in three-point attempts. This is the most consistent scoring avenue given reduced overall volume.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
OG Anunoby	2	4	11	100%	133%
Josh Hart	1	3	8	100%	117%
Mohamed Diawara	1	3	0	0%	0%
Karl-Anthony Towns	1	1	2	50%	50%
Mitchell Robinson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 8.562%MEDIUM

Toppin's season average of 8.4 PPG with high variance (6.15 std dev) and recent minute reduction (13.8 MPG last 5) suggests the 8.5 line is fair to slightly generous. Recent games show clustering at 2-11 points; only 1 of last 6 games exceeded 9 points.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

Season rebound average is 4.4 RPG but last 5 games average 3.8. While he's been strong on the road (4.71 away RPG), reduced minutes make 4.5 a slight lean UNDER, though this is a marginal call.

assistsUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

Toppin averages 1.6 APG for the season but only 1.2 last 5 games with declining trend. Home/away split shows strong home apg (2.3) but lower away (1.4). High variance (1.43 std dev) and recent decline favor the UNDER on 1.5.

threesOVER 168%MEDIUM

Toppin has elevated 3-point volume recently (1.6 FG3M last 5, 1.1 last 10) and is shooting 25% from three this season. Last two games vs NYK (9 pts on 3-6 3PA, 11 pts on 3-7 3PA) show reliance on three-point shooting. OVER 1.0 is supported by recent trend.

stocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

Season stocks average 0.55 but last 5 games average 0.0 (zero steals, zero blocks). Even last 10 (0.4) and last 20 (0.8) show recent deterioration. Against NYK's modest defense (110.61 def rating), limited defensive impact expected.

praUNDER 14.560%MEDIUM

Combining PPG (8.4) + RPG (4.4) + APG (1.6) = 14.4 season average. Recent form softer: last 5 PRA avg ~13.6. Minute reduction and high scoring variance make 14.5 a slight lean UNDER.

paUNDER 661%MEDIUM

Points (8.4) + Assists (1.6) = 10.0 season. Last 5 shows 8.6 PPG + 1.2 APG = 9.8. Away games trend lower in assist production; 6.0 line is conservative but recent minute compression supports UNDER.

prUNDER 12.859%MEDIUM

Points (8.4) + Rebounds (4.4) = 12.8. Last 5 avg 8.6 + 3.8 = 12.4. Recent scoring inconsistency (range 0-17 pts) and rebound dip make this a near-even call; slight lean UNDER given volatility and reduced minutes.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS