Brandon Miller▼

CHA · SG

PPG

20.4

RPG

5.2

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-7.4

20.4

13.0

RPG+0.4

5.2

5.6

APG-0.4

3.4

3.0

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

IND

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs IND: 33 pts

POR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs POR: 26 pts

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 17 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 22 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 11 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 23 pts

SAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs SAC: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 6 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 5 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 2.5

65%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

STL

OVER 0.5

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

P+A

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

P+R

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.2

18.3

RPG

6.1

5.7

APG

3.3

3.2

vs MIA (H2H)5 games

PPG

16.4

RPG

4.4

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyler Herro	2	11	69%	+19.3%	low
Matas Buzelis	4	10	83%	+23.5%	medium
Anthony Black	2	10	14%	-28.9%	low
Jalen Johnson	3	10	54%

Brandon Miller's Sharp Decline vs. Miami Demands Caution on Volume Props

Miller is in freefall over his last 5 games, averaging just 13.0 PPG (down from 20.4 season average) on poor efficiency. Most alarmingly, he scored only 5 points in 12 minutes in his most recent game vs. Miami on March 17—a massive red flag ahead of this rematch. While he excels at home (20.2 PPG), his recent form combined with limited playing time in the prior Heat matchup suggests a sharp dip in volume is likely. Miami's defense allows opponents just 2.65% fewer points than average, but Miller's trend and recent performance trump matchup favorability here.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(↓ from 20.4)

RPG

5.6(→ from 5.2)

APG

3.0(↓ from 3.4)

3PM

2.0(↓ from 3.1)

Stocks

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Tyler Herro leads Miami's perimeter defense with 9.7 minutes of defensive assignment data, allowing 14 points on 80% FG—a concerning matchup. However, the real issue isn't the defender: it's Miller's 12-minute outing in the recent Heat matchup (March 17), suggesting either foul trouble or coach's decision to limit him. Miami's defense ranks 116.45 in DEF rating (league-average), but Miller's form collapse overrides defensive matchup analysis.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brandon Miller▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	30%	16	✗
Brandon Miller▼	Rebounds	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	2	✓
Brandon Miller▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	2	✓
Brandon Miller▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	4	✗
Brandon Miller▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Brandon Miller▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Brandon Miller▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Brandon Miller▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	30%	18	✗
Brandon Miller▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB4.5OVER19%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+8.2% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.224▼

3PM3.5OVER12%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.105▼

P+R25OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

P+A23OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

PTS17.5UNDER44%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)12/2060%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

PRA26.5UNDER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

AST3.5UNDER20%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brandon Miller

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

Miller's last 5-game average of 13.0 PPG sits 2.5 points below this line, and his most recent Heat matchup (5 points in 12 minutes) is a red siren. Even accounting for home court and potential full playing time recovery, the sharp decline in scoring efficiency and the coach's decision to bench him vs. Miami in their last meeting creates a compelling case for the under. The 13.0 recent average leaves minimal margin for regression.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tyler Herro	2	11	14	63%	69%
Kasparas Jakučionis	2	3	5	33%	50%
Norman Powell	1	2	4	100%	100%
Pelle Larsson	2	2	1	0%	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.572%HIGH

Miller's last 5-game average of 13.0 PPG is 7.4 points below his season mark. His most recent performance vs. Miami (5 pts in 12 min) is a stark warning sign—he played only 40% of normal minutes, suggesting either foul trouble or reduced confidence from the coaching staff.

reboundsOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

Miller's last 5-game rebound average is 5.6 RPG, and his recent form shows he's been pulling down boards consistently (13 REB in his last two games combined before the Miami game). The line at 1.5 is artificially depressed; even at 12 minutes in the recent Heat game, he grabbed 1 rebound.

assistsUNDER 2.565%MEDIUM

Last 5-game APG sits at 3.0, but recent games show high variance (5 AST vs SAC, 0 AST vs MIA). Limited playing time in the prior Heat matchup (12 min) severely restricts assist opportunities. Betting under the round-number 2.5 line offers modest value.

threesUNDER 2.570%HIGH

Miller's last 5-game 3PM average is just 2.0, down from his 3.08 season average. In the prior Miami matchup, he was 1-of-1 from three in extremely limited minutes (12 min)—volume concerns dominate. With reduced shot attempts expected, the 2.5 line looks inflated.

stealsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Miller averages 1.1 SPG on the season and 1.2 in his last 5 games. The 0.5 line is a modest hurdle; he's cleared this in 3 of his last 5 contests despite reduced minutes in the most recent game.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

Miller's last 5-game block average is just 0.2 BPG, a sharp decline from his 0.8 season average. Limited playing time compresses block opportunities; the 0.5 line is slightly ambitious given recent volatility and minutes constraints.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Stocks (STL+BLK) last 5: 1.4. Recent Miami matchup yielded 0 stocks in 12 minutes. While Miller averages 1.9 for the season, the last-5 decline and anticipated reduced volume push this modestly under the 1.5 line.

paUNDER 15.571%HIGH

Points + Assists combined: last 5-game average is 16.0 PPG + 3.0 APG = 19.0. However, the 15.5 line assumes near-normal volume. Given Miller's 5-point, 0-assist performance in the prior Heat matchup, reduced playing time should suppress this combo prop significantly.

prUNDER 16.567%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds: last 5-game average is 13.0 + 5.6 = 18.6. The 16.5 line is reasonable based on season trends, but Miller's last game (5 pts, 1 reb in 12 min) shows the combo can collapse with limited minutes. Recent volatility argues for caution.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS