Davion Mitchell▼

MIA · PG

PPG

9.0

RPG

2.7

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

9.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

9.0

9.8

RPG+0.9

2.7

3.6

APG-2.8

6.6

3.8

SPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 3 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 2 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 2 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5STAKE

72%

AST

UNDER 6.5STAKE

68%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

62%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

66%

R+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

64%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

65%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.6

7.3

RPG

2.9

3.1

APG

5.2

4.9

vs CHA (H2H)13 games

PPG

9.6

RPG

2.5

APG

4.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	4	21	75%	+11.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	20	55%	+1.7%	medium
Cade Cunningham	3	17	33%	-20.5%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	16	47%

Mitchell Struggles Away Against Charlotte; Recent Injury Clouds Sharp Decline

Davion Mitchell has seen a significant downturn in production over his last 5 games (9.8 PPG, 3.8 APG, 22.0 MPG) despite season averages of 9.0 PPG and 6.6 APG. A left shoulder injury (marked available but recent as of 3/11) combined with just 9 minutes of action in his most recent game vs. Charlotte on 3/17 signals potential lingering issues or minute restrictions. Away from home, Mitchell averages only 7.3 PPG and 1.5 TOPGs with elevated turnover risk. LaMelo Ball's defensive presence (allowing 31 PPG but on limited sample) and Charlotte's three-point suppression (+0.327) pose additional challenges to Mitchell's already-declining shooting and scoring efficiency.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.8(→ from 9.0)

APG

3.8(↓ from 6.6)

MPG

22.0(↓ from 28.2)

3PM

1.0(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

LaMelo Ball is Charlotte's primary perimeter defender with strong minutes (25.3) and will likely handle Mitchell for stretches. Charlotte's defense allows 31 PPG to opposing point guards on larger samples but suppresses three-point shooting (+0.327), limiting Mitchell's already-declining 3PM volume (1.0 last 5).

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Davion Mitchell▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	4	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	5	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	9	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	R+A	9.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	8	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	7	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%+11.0% edge▼

REB2.5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST5.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/2035%+15.5% edge▼

PRA16.5OVER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.130▼

P+R13OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Davion Mitchell

Assists UNDER 6.5MEDIUM

Mitchell's last 5-game average of 3.8 APG is 2.7 assists below the line. His recent game vs. Charlotte (1 AST in 9 MIN) and consistent minute reductions (22 MPG last 5) make the 6.5 line unsustainable. Even accounting for home/away splits and season baseline, reduced role and shoulder injury recovery signal continued suppression of playmaking volume.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
LaMelo Ball	3	14	24	58%	75%
Kon Knueppel	4	8	21	62%	73%
Tre Mann	2	5	2	25%	25%
Miles Bridges	4	5	2	33%	33%
Sion James	3	3	8	75%	100%

pointsUNDER 8.572%HIGH

Mitchell scored just 2 points in 9 minutes vs. Charlotte on 3/17 and is averaging only 7.3 PPG on the road. Recent minutes decline (22.0 in last 5) and potential shoulder restrictions limit ceiling.

assistsUNDER 6.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 average of 3.8 APG is well below the 6.5 line. Recent games show 1–7 assist range; reduced minutes (22 MPG last 5 vs. 28.2 season) directly suppress assist opportunities.

reboundsOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

Last 5 average of 3.6 RPG exceeds the line. Recent games include 5 and 7 rebound performances; even in limited minutes, Mitchell has shown rebounding consistency.

paUNDER 14.566%MEDIUM

Points + Assists combined (8.5 + 6.5 = 15.0 season expectation) but recent form (9.8 + 3.8 = 13.6 last 5) suggests the 14.5 is optimistic given injury risk and away-game penalties.

raUNDER 9.564%MEDIUM

Rebounds + Assists combined: last 5 average of 3.6 + 3.8 = 7.4, below the 9.5 line. Minute restrictions and declining assist volume limit upside to this combo.

prUNDER 10.565%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds: last 5 average of 9.8 + 3.6 = 13.4 season-like, but recent away performance vs. Charlotte (2 PTS, 2 REB = 4) and reduced minutes suggest underperformance vs. the line.

stealsUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

Season average of 1.0 SPG; last 5 shows 0.6 SPG. Minute-dependent stat that will suffer if Mitchell remains on restriction or limited to 20–25 minutes.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS