Kel'el Ware▼

MIA · C

PPG

11.3

RPG

9.4

APG

0.6

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.7

11.3

8.6

RPG-2.2

9.4

7.2

APG0.0

0.6

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG+0.7

1.1

1.8

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 14 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 5 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 6 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 2 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5STAKE

72%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

68%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

75%

P+R

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

PRA

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

R+A

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.7

10.4

RPG

9.5

7.6

APG

0.6

vs CHA (H2H)7 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

5.6

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Moussa Diabaté	4	18	64%	+10.7%	medium
Ryan Kalkbrenner	4	17	80%	+27.1%	medium
Mitchell Robinson	3	16	50%	-2.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	2	15	78%

Kel'el Ware faces Charlotte after recent shoulder injury; proceed with caution on volume props

Ware is listed as Available but was recently flagged for a right shoulder injury on March 18. His last game vs. Charlotte (March 17) was severely limited to just 8 minutes with 2 points and 3 rebounds—a major red flag for tonight's rematch. Over his last 5 games, he's averaging 8.6 PPG (down from 11.3 season average) with declining scoring efficiency. However, his block rate has surged to 1.8 BPG in the last 5 games and 1.7 BPG over the last 10, suggesting defensive activity remains intact. Charlotte's defense allows 112.55 points per 100 possessions and has slight scoring suppression (-0.64), making this a neutral matchup. The critical variable is minutes—if shoulder limitations persist like the last outing, his volume will remain depressed.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↓ from 11.3)

RPG

7.2(↓ from 9.4)

BPG

1.8(↑ from 1.1)

Stocks

2.6(↑ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

Ryan Kalkbrenner is the primary big defender with 16.1 MPG, allowing 16 PPG at 80% FG—a soft interior matchup. However, Moussa Diabaté (12.8 MPG, 12 PPG allowed, 55.6% FG) provides more resistance. The real concern is Charlotte's neutral defensive profile (112.55 rating, -0.64 scoring suppression) paired with Ware's shoulder injury from yesterday's game in this same building.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kel'el Ware▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	30%	7	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	8	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	75%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	30%	15	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	16	✗
Kel'el Ware▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	9	✓
Kel'el Ware▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	70%HIGH	—	50%	1	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/1942%▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Kel'el Ware

Blocks OVER 0.5HIGH

Ware's block rate has surged to 1.8 BPG over the last 5 games and 1.7 BPG over 10 games, a significant uptick from his 1.1 season average. Despite the shoulder injury concern affecting scoring/rebounding volume, his interior defense and shot-blocking activity remain elite. Even if limited to 20-25 minutes, he has generated blocks in 5 of his last 6 games. DraftKings -147 heavily favors the over, reflecting sharps' confidence in his defensive upside regardless of load management.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Moussa Diabaté	4	18	16	64%	64%
Ryan Kalkbrenner	4	17	16	80%	80%
Kon Knueppel	4	2	3	25%	38%
Miles Bridges	4	2	4	50%	50%
LaMelo Ball	3	1	2	13%	13%

pointsUNDER 7.572%HIGH

Recent shoulder injury limited Ware to 8 minutes vs. Charlotte just yesterday. Last 5 PPG of 8.6 sits below the 7.5 line, but injury-related minute restriction is the key risk factor. Season 11.3 PPG is inflated by early-season health.

reboundsUNDER 7.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 game average of 7.2 RPG edges just under the 7.5 line. If minutes are limited due to shoulder injury, rebound volume will suffer. His away split (7.6 RPG) offers minimal cushion.

stealsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Ware has recorded steals in 5 of his last 6 games with 0.8 SPG in last 5 and 1.4 SPG in last 10. Even on limited minutes, he's active on the perimeter. Last two games vs. Charlotte show 0 and 1 steal respectively.

blocksOVER 0.575%HIGH

Blocks have been a strength: 1.8 BPG last 5, 1.7 BPG last 10 vs. season 1.1 BPG. Last Charlotte matchup saw 0 blocks in 8 minutes, but when healthy, he consistently clears shots. DraftKings odds (-147) heavily favor the over.

prUNDER 14.570%HIGH

Points + Rebounds combined 7.5 + 7.5 = 15 season line. Last 5 average of 8.6 PPG + 7.2 RPG = 15.8, but the shoulder concern and yesterday's 8-minute outing suggest volume will be suppressed. DraftKings 14.5 line is slightly tighter than stake's 15.5.

praUNDER 15.569%MEDIUM

Points (8.6 L5) + Rebounds (7.2 L5) + Assists (0.6 L5) = 16.4 last-5 average, marginally above the 15.5 line. However, assists are negligible (0.56 season), and if minute restriction continues, the combo will dip below this threshold.

raUNDER 10.565%MEDIUM

Rebounds (7.2 L5) + Assists (0.6 L5) = 7.8 over last 5 games, well below 10.5. DraftKings has positioned this line high relative to recent output, suggesting sharp money expects minute increases. Injury status makes the under safer.

stocksOVER 270%HIGH

Steals + Blocks combined: 2.6 last 5, 3.1 last 10. Even with limited minutes, Ware's defensive intensity has elevated significantly. Season mean is 2.0, so recent 2.6 average supports the over. Defensive activity is less minute-dependent than scoring/rebounding.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS