Miles Bridges—

CHA · PF

PPG

17.7

RPG

5.8

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

15.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.9

17.7

15.8

RPG-0.8

5.8

5.0

APG-1.2

3.4

2.2

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

IND

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs IND: 7 pts

POR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs POR: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 9 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs SAC: 26 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 22 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 4 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

70%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

65%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

P+R

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

P+A

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

R+A

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.1

17.1

RPG

4.2

5.4

APG

2.4

3.4

vs MIA (H2H)17 games

PPG

17.6

RPG

6.3

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Paolo Banchero	3	24	48%	-3.2%	medium
Scottie Barnes	4	21	73%	+23.1%	medium
Giannis Antetokounmpo	3	18	47%	+1.3%	medium
Dominick Barlow	3	13	33%

Bridges Struggles at Home vs. Miami; Sharp Decline in Minutes and Production

Miles Bridges is in a concerning stretch, particularly at home where he averages just 11.1 PPG (vs. 17.7 season average). Most alarming: his last game vs. Miami on 3/17 saw him limited to just 7 minutes with only 4 points—a dramatic departure from his season norm of 31.8 MPG. Over his last 5 games, Bridges has averaged 15.8 PPG on 26.8 MPG, down from his season 31.8 MPG baseline. While he typically performs better on the road (17.1 PPG away vs. 11.1 PPG at home), tonight he's playing at home in Charlotte. The Heat's defense (116.45 DEFRTG) is slightly above average, and his recent history vs. Miami (17 games, 17.6 PPG, but very low minutes in the last two meetings) suggests limited upside.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.8(↓ from 17.7)

MPG

26.8(↓ from 31.8)

Home PPG

11.0(→ from 11.1)

RPG

5.0(→ from 5.8)

Key Matchup

Andrew Wiggins has allowed 19 PPG on just 36.8% FG in 16.8 minutes; Bam Adebayo has held opponents to 13 PPG on 40% FG in 15.7 minutes. Bridges will likely draw defensive attention from multiple Heat wings, but the key concern is his recent minute restriction and home-court underperformance (11.1 PPG) rather than a specific defender's strength.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Miles Bridges▼	Points	9.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	14	✓
Miles Bridges▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	100%	10	✗
Miles Bridges▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Miles Bridges▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Miles Bridges▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Miles Bridges▼	PRA	22.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%	26	✗
Miles Bridges▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	24	✗
Miles Bridges▼	P+A	12.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	16	✗
Miles Bridges▼	R+A	11.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA21.5OVER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.040▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

REB5.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5OVER16%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

PTS14.5UNDER37%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)OVER 4x8/2040%+6.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

AST2.5UNDER26%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Miles Bridges

Rebounds UNDER 9.5HIGH

The FanDuel line of 9.5 is bloated by the 5-rebound performance in a 7-minute outing on 3/17. Bridges' season RPG is only 5.8, and his home splits are even worse at 4.2 RPG. Last-5 average is 5.0. Expect 4-6 rebounds in full minutes; the 9.5 line is unrealistic given actual production and playing time trends.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pelle Larsson	4	11	7	50%	58%
Andrew Wiggins	2	8	5	22%	28%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	4	7	9	43%	43%
Bam Adebayo	2	6	9	44%	50%
Kel'el Ware	4	3	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 9.562%MEDIUM

FanDuel line of 9.5 is artificially suppressed likely due to the 7-minute game on 3/17. Season PPG is 17.7 and last-5 is 15.8. Even at home (11.1 PPG in splits), a full game should eclipse 9.5 points.

reboundsUNDER 9.570%HIGH

Season RPG is 5.8; last-5 is 5.0. Home splits show 4.2 RPG. The 9.5 line is inflated—likely overdone due to the 5-rebound game in the 3/17 abbreviated outing. Current form and home splits suggest 5-6 rebounds is more realistic.

assistsUNDER 2.565%MEDIUM

Season APG is 3.4, but last-5 dips to 2.2 APG. Last-10 is 2.6. Recent trend is downward; 2.5 is near the recent ceiling. Limited minutes (26.8 MPG last-5) also reduce assist opportunity.

threesUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Season FG3M is 2.08, but last-5 is 1.6 per game. Last-10 drops to 1.4. Against Miami's defense, and with depressed minutes recently, 1.5 is a reasonable ceiling. Expect 1-2 threes.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Season stocks (STL+BLK) is 1.06; last-5 is 0.8; last-10 is 1.3. Recent mean hovers ~1.0. The 1.5 line is slightly optimistic given reduced playing time and Miami's solid perimeter defense.

praUNDER 22.572%HIGH

Sum of PPG (15.8 last-5) + RPG (5.0 last-5) + APG (2.2 last-5) = 23.0. The 22.5 line is near breakeven, but home splits (11.1 PPG) suggest a total closer to 18-20 PRA is more realistic. Recent form warrants UNDER.

prUNDER 20.568%MEDIUM

PPG (15.8 last-5) + RPG (5.0 last-5) = 20.8. At home, PPG drops to 11.1, pushing the combined closer to 16.1. The 20.5 line assumes away performance; home context suggests UNDER.

paUNDER 12.565%MEDIUM

PPG (15.8 last-5) + APG (2.2 last-5) = 18.0 season form, but last-5 APG is depressed. At home, PPG is only 11.1, so PA closer to 13.3. The 12.5 is reasonable but slightly aggressive given home penalty and assist decline.

raUNDER 11.567%MEDIUM

RPG (5.0 last-5) + APG (2.2 last-5) = 7.2. Last-20 shows RPG 4.8, APG 3.0 = 7.8. The 11.5 line is inflated; even season averages (5.8 + 3.4) only total 9.2. Clear UNDER at 11.5.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS