Pelle Larsson▼

MIA · PF

PPG

10.9

RPG

3.4

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

12.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

10.9

12.6

RPG-0.2

3.4

3.2

APG-0.3

3.3

3.0

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 9 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 3 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 10 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 28 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 15 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 0 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

3PM

UNDER 0.9

55%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

P+A

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+R

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.0

8.4

RPG

4.0

4.8

APG

3.8

2.8

vs CHA (H2H)6 games

PPG

8.8

RPG

2.5

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	14	39%	-16.6%	medium
Kon Knueppel	4	10	81%	+12.6%	medium
Mikal Bridges	3	9	80%	+10.1%	medium
Cooper Flagg	2	9	45%

Larsson's Minutes Caution After Elbow Injury Return vs Charlotte

Pelle Larsson returned from a left elbow injury on March 17 but played just 6 minutes in a blowout loss to Charlotte, posting 0 points. Before that injury, he was trending up with 12.6 PPG over his last 5 games and strong home splits (15.0 PPG). Tonight's rematch in Charlotte presents a road test—he averages only 8.4 PPG away versus 15.0 at home, and his recent season vs CHA shows 8.8 PPG across 6 meetings. Minutes allocation remains the biggest question mark given the injury setback and short playing time last game.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.6(↓ from 10.9)

RPG

3.2(→ from 3.4)

APG

3.0(→ from 3.3)

3PM

1.0(→ from 0.9)

Stocks

1.2(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

Kon Knueppel has guarded Larsson across 8.2 minutes, allowing 11 points on 57.1% FG. However, Larsson's overall vs CHA history shows only 8.8 PPG in 6 meetings, and his road averages (8.4 PPG) are significantly suppressed. The Hornets' defense rates 112.55 DE with -0.64 scoring suppression, neutral matchup value.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Pelle Larsson▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	14	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	3PM	0.9	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✗
Pelle Larsson▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✓
Pelle Larsson▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA17.5OVER36%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x15/2075%+24.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB3.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.151▼

P+R18UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

PTS10.5UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.340▼

P+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

AST2.5OVER29%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x16/2080%+16.8% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Pelle Larsson

Points UNDER 10.5MEDIUM

Larsson just returned from left elbow injury with minimal 6-minute action last game. He averages 8.4 PPG on the road and 8.8 PPG vs Charlotte specifically. Despite pre-injury form of 12.6 PPG in last 5 games, the injury return and road context strongly suggest depressed scoring. Charlotte's defensive rating and Larsson's minute-restriction risk make the under a lean.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kon Knueppel	4	10	14	63%	81%
Brandon Miller	2	8	3	11%	17%
LaMelo Ball	3	6	7	27%	32%
Miles Bridges	4	5	10	50%	50%
Collin Sexton	1	4	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.568%MEDIUM

Larsson just returned from left elbow injury with 6 minutes of action on March 17. He averages only 8.4 PPG on the road vs 15.0 at home. Season vs CHA: 8.8 PPG in limited roles. Expect cautious minutes management.

reboundsUNDER 3.562%MEDIUM

Recent 3.2 RPG in last 5 and 3.7 in last 10 suggest the 3.5 line is elevated. Away splits show 4.8 RPG but that's skewed by limited sample. If minutes are restricted due to injury, rebounding volume will suffer.

assistsUNDER 3.559%MEDIUM

Season assist average is 3.3 APG. Last game back from injury he recorded 0 assists in 6 minutes. Recent away games show lower assist volume (2.8 APG away vs 3.8 home). Injury rust likely impacts playmaking.

threesUNDER 0.955%MEDIUM

Larsson makes 1.0 FG3M in last 5 games but away splits show only 0.4 FG3PM. Charlotte allows 0.327 three-point suppression. Limited minutes from injury return will reduce three-point attempts.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 1.0 SPG with +0.3 variance. Season average is 0.7. The 0.5 line is below recent form and Larsson has shown improved defensive activity (1.0 SPG in last 5). Modest upside.

paUNDER 16.564%MEDIUM

Points + Assists: Season mean is 14.2 (10.9 PPG + 3.3 APG). Recent form (12.6 + 3.0) yields 15.6. Away performance and injury return suggest depressed ceiling. Expect closer to 13-14 combined.

prUNDER 18.562%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds: Season mean is 14.3 (10.9 + 3.4). Recent away games and injury context suggest 12-14 range. The 18.5 line is overestimating his two-way production given road splits and elbow concerns.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS