Ryan Kalkbrenner▼

CHA · C

PPG

7.9

RPG

5.8

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

6.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.9

7.9

6.0

RPG-1.6

5.8

4.2

APG-0.2

0.8

0.6

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.5

1.5

2.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

CHI

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CHI: 0 pts

IND

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs IND: 4 pts

POR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs POR: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 10 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 2 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 13 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 3 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 2 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5STAKE

72%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

68%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

BLK

OVER 1.5STAKE

65%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

66%

P+A

UNDER 6.5STAKE

64%

R+A

UNDER 5.5STAKE

62%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.7

5.5

RPG

5.5

4.4

APG

1.1

0.8

vs MIA (H2H)4 games

PPG

6.0

RPG

4.0

APG

0.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jakob Poeltl	3	18	69%	-5.6%	medium
Kel'el Ware	4	16	31%	-46.6%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	15	67%	-13.3%	medium
Nic Claxton	3	14	53%

Kalkbrenner faces tough Miami matchup with declining minutes and production

Ryan Kalkbrenner is trending downward, averaging just 6.0 PPG and 4.2 RPG over his last 5 games while seeing reduced minutes (15.0 MPG vs 22.0 season avg). His recent two matchups vs Miami (March 17 and March 6) have been particularly brutal—combining for just 4 points on 1-5 shooting across 21 minutes. Against Miami's solid defense (116.45 DRtg), with limited usage and volatility in his scoring output (season std: 4.03), Kalkbrenner projects as a low-volume, inconsistent contributor tonight.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.0(↓ from 7.9)

RPG

4.2(↓ from 5.8)

MPG

15.0(↓ from 22.0)

BPG

2.0(↑ from 1.5)

Stocks

2.4(→ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

Kel'el Ware has primarily defended Kalkbrenner for Miami (15.4 minutes), allowing only 12 points on 27.8% FG. Bam Adebayo's limited matchup time (5.4 min) saw 20 points allowed, but that sample is too small. Overall, Miami's defense grades as solid (116.45 DRtg, 26.5% scoring suppression) and has limited Kalkbrenner to just 4 points across two recent meetings.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	6	✓
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	P+A	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✗
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	R+A	5.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Ryan Kalkbrenner▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	70%	9	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA10.5UNDER40%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

P+R10UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+A7UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Ryan Kalkbrenner

Stocks (Steals + Blocks) OVER 2.0MEDIUM

Last 5 games average 2.4 stocks; season avg 2.09. Despite declining offensive role and minutes, Kalkbrenner has maintained defensive activity (7 of last 10 games with 2+ stocks). This is his most stable production category and offers better value than offensive props given his usage decline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kel'el Ware	4	16	12	28%	31%
Bam Adebayo	2	5	20	67%	75%
Keshad Johnson	1	3	9	50%	75%
Davion Mitchell	4	1	4	67%	67%
Nikola Jović	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 8.572%HIGH

Last 5 avg of 6.0 PPG significantly below 8.5 line. Recent two MIA games: 2 pts (4 min) and 2 pts (17 min). Declining minutes trend and high scoring variance (std 4.0) suggest difficulty reaching 8.5.

reboundsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 rebounding average is 4.2 RPG, just below the 4.5 line. Reduced playing time (15.0 MPG last 5) limits rebound opportunities. Season std of 2.57 indicates moderate variance but current trend doesn't support consistency.

assistsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Season mean 0.8 AST and last 5 mean 0.6 AST both favor over. Low variance on assists (season std 0.97) provides slight edge. 4 of last 10 games recorded 1+ assist.

blocksOVER 1.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 averaging 2.0 BPG—above the 1.5 line. Season avg 1.5 BPG. Recent games show BLK production (3 blocks vs SAS, 4 blocks vs MIA on 3/6) provides pop on defensive end despite low offensive volume.

stealsUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

Season avg 0.6 SPG slightly above 0.5, but last 5 avg 0.4 SPG and last 10 avg 0.4 SPG. Trend is downward and minutes reduction limits steal opportunities.

stocksOVER 266%MEDIUM

Last 5 stocks average 2.4 (STL+BLK). Recent games show consistent defensive activity with 2+ stocks in 7 of last 10 games. This is Kalkbrenner's most reliable category given declining offensive role.

paUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

Last 5 PPG (6.0) + APG (0.6) = 6.6 combined. Recent Miami games total 2.0 + 0.5 = 2.5 combined. Depressed minutes (15.0 MPG) reduce ceiling for volume-dependent combo props.

raUNDER 5.562%MEDIUM

Last 5 RPG (4.2) + APG (0.6) = 4.8 combined, below 5.5 line. Reduced playing time and declining rebound volume in recent games limit combo potential.

prUNDER 10.570%HIGH

Last 5 PPG (6.0) + RPG (4.2) = 10.2 combined, slightly below line. Recent Miami matchups (4 combined in 21 min) show historical difficulty. Minutes reduction from 22.0 to 15.0 MPG severely impacts this combo.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS