Tyler Herro▼

MIA · SG

PPG

21.5

RPG

4.6

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.7

21.5

19.8

RPG+1.0

4.6

5.6

APG+0.8

3.8

4.6

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 14 pts

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 14 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 25 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 18 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 22 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 33 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 25 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 10 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 6 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5STAKE

65%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

60%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

72%

3PM

OVER 2.5

68%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

70%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.2

68%

P+A

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

P+R

UNDER 30.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

PRA

UNDER 36.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

R+A

OVER 8.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.5

19.9

RPG

3.7

5.1

APG

3.4

3.9

vs CHA (H2H)14 games

PPG

22.9

RPG

5.3

APG

4.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Max Christie	2	11	50%	-8.1%	low
Sam Hauser	2	9	67%	+18.6%	low
Sam Merrill	2	9	63%	+1.9%	low
Duncan Robinson	2	9	42%

Herro Faces Charlotte Again After Explosive Prior Matchup, but Recent Injury Concerns Cloud the Outlook

Tyler Herro is listed as Available but carries a left quadriceps injury note dated 2026-03-18, just before tonight's Charlotte matchup. Most critically, he played only 9 minutes in his last game vs. CHA (2026-03-17), scoring 6 points—a stark departure from his dominant 33-point, 9-assist performance against the same Hornets on 2026-03-06. Over his last 5 games, Herro has averaged 19.8 PPG and 4.6 APG, showing a downward trend from his 21.5 season average. While he's historically productive vs. Charlotte (22.9 PPG over 14 meetings), the recent injury combined with drastically reduced minutes in their last encounter raises serious questions about his availability and workload tonight.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.8(↓ from 21.5)

APG

4.6(↑ from 3.8)

3PM

3.2(↑ from 2.5)

RPG

5.6(↑ from 4.6)

Key Matchup

Charlotte's key SG defender is Josh Green (5 pts allowed on 50% FG in limited minutes) and LaMelo Ball (21 pts allowed, 34.6% FG). The Hornets' defense rates 112.55, slightly above league average. Herro has dominated the matchup historically (22.9 PPG) but most recently posted just 6 points in 9 minutes, which is the more relevant data point given his injury status.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tyler Herro▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	20	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	8	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%	5	✓
Tyler Herro▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Tyler Herro▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	100%	1	✓
Tyler Herro▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Tyler Herro▼	STL+BLK	1.2	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
Tyler Herro▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	25	✓
Tyler Herro▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	28	✓
Tyler Herro▼	PRA	36.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	33	✓
Tyler Herro▼	R+A	8.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R25.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST3.5OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.111; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA29.5UNDER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS21.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

REB4.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%+7.0% edge▼

3PM2.5UNDER29%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge changed +0.031▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tyler Herro

Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM

Herro's playmaking has been consistently strong: 4.6 APG last 5, 4.22 on the road, 4.214 vs. Charlotte historically. The Stake line at 3.5 is favorable odds vs. his recent trajectory, and assists are less dependent on minute load than scoring or rebounding. This represents the most reliable prop given the injury uncertainty.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Josh Green	2	6	0	0%	0%
Kon Knueppel	2	5	7	50%	50%
LaMelo Ball	2	4	7	27%	32%
Brandon Miller	2	3	5	100%	100%
Miles Bridges	2	3	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 19.565%MEDIUM

Herro played only 9 minutes in his last CHA game (6 pts), signaling potential load management or injury impact. While he averages 22.9 PPG vs. Charlotte historically, the quad injury and recent minute restriction are major red flags.

reboundsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

Herro averages 5.6 RPG in his last 5 games and 5.33 on the road vs. Charlotte's league-average defense. However, the injury concern and potential minute limitation make the aggressive 5.5 line risky.

assistsOVER 3.572%HIGH

Herro has averaged 4.6 APG over his last 5 games and 4.22 on the road. His playmaking has been consistent; the Fanatics line of 5.5 is steeper, but stake's 3.5 is comfortably achievable.

threesOVER 2.568%MEDIUM

Herro has shot 3.2 3PM in his last 5 games and 2.9 recently. Charlotte's three-point suppression is +0.327, but Herro's volume and 39.3% season 3P% support exceeding 2.5.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

Herro averages 0.8 SPG for the season and just 0.4 in his last 5 games. The 1.5 line is well above his typical output; underlying defensive activity is not his strength.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

Herro averages 0.4 BPG for the season and 0.2 over his last 5 games. Blocks are not a meaningful part of his game; this prop is unlikely to cash.

stocksUNDER 1.268%MEDIUM

Combined steals + blocks average 0.6 over the last 5 games and 0.8 recently. While the season mean is 1.14, recent performance is significantly lower, particularly with injury.

paUNDER 27.562%MEDIUM

DraftKings line of 27.5 is aggressive. Herro averages 21 PPG recently and 25.3 combined (PPG + APG). The injury and last-game minute restriction (9 min) warrant caution on this combo prop.

prUNDER 30.563%MEDIUM

DraftKings P+R line of 30.5 is steep. Herro averages 19.8 PPG + 5.6 RPG recently = 25.4. The quad injury and potential workload management make 30.5 a difficult target.

praUNDER 36.564%MEDIUM

DraftKings P+R+A line of 36.5 is the most aggressive projection. Herro's recent combined average is roughly 29.9 (19.8 + 5.6 + 4.6). The injury noise and prior 9-minute outing strongly suggest staying under.

raOVER 8.566%MEDIUM

Herro averages 10.2 R+A recently (5.6 + 4.6) and 8.22 over the last 10 games. The stake line of 8.5 is conservative relative to his recent playmaking and rebounding volume.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS