Chet Holmgren▲

OKC · PF

PPG

17.3

RPG

9.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

18.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

17.3

18.8

RPG+0.2

9.0

9.2

APG-0.3

1.7

1.4

SPG+0.4

0.6

1.0

BPG-0.9

1.9

1.0

OVER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

MIL

2026-02-12

2026-02-12 vs MIL: 16 pts

BKN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs BKN: 15 pts

CLE

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs CLE: 17 pts

TOR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs TOR: 7 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 19 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 28 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 21 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 18.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

UNDER 13.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

70%

3PM

OVER 1.5

66%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

STABLE 2

65%

P+R

UNDER 27.5STAKE

68%

R+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

71%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.0

14.6

RPG

12.3

7.4

APG

2.0

vs ORL (H2H)4 games

PPG

14.5

RPG

9.0

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	18	45%	-9.8%	medium
Alperen Sengun	3	17	42%	-13.2%	medium
Harrison Barnes	4	16	44%	-11.6%	medium
Bam Adebayo	2	14	59%

Holmgren Heating Up Against Orlando's Porous Defense

Chet Holmgren enters this matchup in strong form, averaging 18.8 PPG over his last 5 games with an upward trend. Orlando's defense ranks 114.06 in rating with notably weak three-point suppression (-1.223), which should benefit Holmgren's improved three-ball usage (1.8 3PM in last 5 vs 1.28 season average). He's performing well at home (17.0 PPG, 12.3 RPG) and has favorable recent history vs the Magic (14.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG in 4 prior matchups). The combination of hot form, home court, and weak opposing defense suggests a strong outing.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.8(↑ from 17.3)

RPG

9.2(→ from 9.0)

APG

1.4(↓ from 1.7)

3PM

1.8(↑ from 1.3)

BPG

1.0(↓ from 1.9)

Stocks

2.0(→ from 2.5)

Key Matchup

Orlando's interior defense trio of Goga Bitadze (8 pts allowed in 9.9 min), Wendell Carter Jr. (12 pts in 9.5 min), and Moritz Wagner (15 pts in 7.0 min) offers minimal resistance. Holmgren's size and finishing ability should exploit gaps, particularly on the perimeter where Orlando's -1.223 three-point suppression suggests vulnerability to floor-spacing bigs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Chet Holmgren▼	Points	18.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	30%	20	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Rebounds	13.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	12	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	20%	1	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	0	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	40%	1	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	STL+BLK	2	STABLE	65%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	32	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	R+A	10.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	60%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

PTS15.5UNDER53%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

AST2UNDER51%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 5x5/2025%▼

FTA4.5UNDER28%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

PRA27.5UNDER47%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

FTM3.5UNDER33%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

BLK1.5UNDER41%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER45%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)4/2020%+9.8% edge▼

3PA3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

REB8.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼

Featured Pick

Chet Holmgren

Rebounds+Assists OVER 10.5HIGH

Holmgren's last 10-game average is 11.1 RPG + 2.4 APG = 13.5 total. Even accounting for last 5 regression (9.2 + 1.4 = 10.6), the 10.5 line sits right at recent equilibrium with upside. Home court and Orlando's weak interior defense support beating this number with solid margins.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	8	4	25%	25%
Noah Penda	2	3	0	0%	0%
Paolo Banchero	2	2	4	22%	22%
Jett Howard	2	2	0	0%	0%
Tristan da Silva	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 18.572%HIGH

Holmgren has averaged 18.8 PPG in last 5 games and 17.0 PPG at home this season. Orlando's defense allows -0.289 scoring suppression, and he's posted 21 PPG and 28 PPG in his last two games.

reboundsUNDER 13.568%MEDIUM

While Holmgren averages 12.3 RPG at home and 11.1 in last 10 games, the 13.5 line is elevated. Orlando's interior defense with Bitadze and Carter Jr. should limit glass opportunities, and recent average sits around 9-10 RPG.

assistsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

Holmgren's season assist average is 1.72 APG and last 5 is only 1.4 APG. He rarely exceeds this line, with last 10 averaging 2.4 but with high variance (std 1.28). Better to fade.

threesOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

Holmgren has elevated his three-ball usage to 1.8 3PM in last 5 games (vs 1.28 season avg). Orlando's three-point suppression is the worst metric (-1.223), creating favorable shooting conditions.

blocksUNDER 1.572%HIGH

Last 5 average is just 1.0 BPG, down from season 1.9. While he posts 1.9 BPG overall, recent trends show decline. Orlando's frontcourt (Bitadze, Wagner, Carter Jr.) won't generate high block volume opportunities.

stocksSTABLE 265%MEDIUM

Season stocks average 2.45 with recent mean at 2.4. However, last 5 shows decline to 2.0 stocks. This projects near consensus; slight lean to under given declining blocks.

prUNDER 27.568%MEDIUM

Combined points+rebounds line requires strong performance in both. With assists likely modest, and recent PPG at 18.8 + RPG at 9.2, the 27.5 line sits just above recent totals (~28). Slight lean under given variance.

raOVER 10.571%HIGH

Holmgren's last 10 shows 11.1 RPG and 2.4 APG for a 13.5 total. Last 5 is 9.2 + 1.4 = 10.6. At home against Orlando's mediocre interior D, he should clear 10.5 in this combo.

timelineOVER 18.5 PTS