Desmond Bane▼

ORL · SG

PPG

20.6

RPG

4.1

APG

4.2

L5 PPG

20.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.4

20.6

20.2

RPG-1.3

4.1

2.8

APG0.0

4.2

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

OVER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

DET

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DET: 17 pts

WAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs WAS: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 30 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 18 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 35 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 22 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 5 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 19.5STAKE

62%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

68%

3PM

OVER 1.5

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

65%

P+A

OVER 23.5STAKE

66%

P+R

UNDER 22.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.6

RPG

3.5

3.3

APG

3.9

vs OKC (H2H)13 games

PPG

13.0

RPG

4.3

APG

3.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	3	17	43%	-15.0%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	16	59%	+8.0%	medium
Pelle Larsson	4	14	50%	-3.9%	medium
Aaron Nesmith	3	14	56%

Bane bounces back at home after rough OKC outing, but faces defensive pressure

Desmond Bane had an uncharacteristically poor performance against OKC on 3/17 (5 pts in 10 min), but that was likely a minutes management issue rather than defensive dominance. Over his last 20 games he's averaged 22.6 PPG at home with elite efficiency (48.7% FG, 92.3% FT), and the Magic are on a B2B favoring increased volume. However, Luguentz Dort has held opponents to just 3 PPG on 12.5% FG when guarding Bane (21.1 min sample), and OKC's defense allows -1.8 PPG below average. The recent trend shows a decline from 22.6 PPG (last 20) to 20.2 PPG (last 5), creating conflicting signals.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.2(↓ from 20.6)

APG

4.2(→ from 4.2)

3PM

1.8(↓ from 2.0)

SPG

1.0(→ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

Luguentz Dort is the primary concern—he's allowed just 3 PPG on 12.5% FG against Bane in 21.1 minutes. However, Dort's usage is limited; Jalen Williams (15.5 min) allowed 22 PPG on 60% FG, suggesting Bane can exploit secondary defenders. OKC's overall defense rates 107.71, below league average, but their three-point suppression (+0.88) may suppress his 3PM volume slightly.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Desmond Bane▼	Points	19.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	16	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✗
Desmond Bane▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Desmond Bane▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Desmond Bane▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	17	✗
Desmond Bane▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	19	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS21OVER4%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

REB4OVER7%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

FTA5.5UNDER3%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PRA29UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

AST4UNDER14%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA5UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

FTM5UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER41%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

3PM2UNDER17%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Desmond Bane

Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM

Bane's assist trend is solidly positive (4.8 last 10, 5.1 recent mean), and B2B games correlate with 5.2 APG. The 3.5 line is modest for a starting SG in Orlando's system. Home splits (3.9 APG) and recent heavy playmaking load make this the most reliable prop on the slate.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Luguentz Dort	2	6	0	0%	0%
Ajay Mitchell	1	3	5	100%	100%
Alex Caruso	2	3	4	50%	50%
Cason Wallace	2	3	0	0%	0%
Isaiah Joe	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 19.562%MEDIUM

Home court advantage (22.6 PPG at home vs 18.9 away) and B2B context (19.5 PPG average) support modest output, but Dort's elite defense (3 PPG allowed) and recent downward trend to 20.2 PPG (last 5) create uncertainty. Sportsbook line of 19.5 is conservative; expect him to clear this floor.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

Season average is 4.1 RPG with low variance (std 2.0). Last 5 games show only 2.8 RPG, and B2B games correlate with 3.5 RPG. Limited upside for a guard in this matchup.

assistsOVER 3.568%MEDIUM

Assists trend positively: 4.2 APG (last 5), 4.8 APG (last 10), 3.9 APG (season). Recent mean of 5.1 APG and B2B context (5.2 APG) suggest he'll exceed this modest line. Home splits also favor playmaking (3.9 APG).

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

Season 3PM average is 2.0 per game. Last 5 dipped to 1.8, but home splits show 2.6 3PM—well above the line. OKC allows +0.88 three-point suppression, but Bane's volume at home (2.6) should push him over 1.5.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Season SPG is 1.0, last 5 average 1.0 SPG. Even though away splits show 1.6 SPG, home splits drop to 1.3. This is a marginal volume stat for a guard; expect him to stay below 1.5.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

Season BPG is just 0.5, last 5 shows 0.2 BPG, and last 10 only 0.1 BPG. Minimal shot-blocking volume makes this an easy under.

stocksOVER 1.565%MEDIUM

Combined STL+BLK: season 1.48, last 5 1.2, but away splits show 2.1 stocks and B2B context favors 1.8. Recent data slightly soft, but upside exists; slight lean over.

paOVER 23.566%MEDIUM

Points + Assists projection: 20.2 PPG (last 5) + 4.2 APG = 24.4 projected. Recent mean of 23 PPG and 5.1 APG (recent) both support crossing 23.5. Home court and B2B boost this combo.

prUNDER 22.562%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds: 20.2 PPG + 2.8 RPG (last 5) = 23.0. Rebounding has trended down recently (2.8 last 5 vs 3.5 season), and B2B correlation shows 3.5 RPG. Close call, but slight lean under due to weak rebound trend.

timelineOVER 19.5 PTS