Jalen Suggs▼

ORL · PG

PPG

13.9

RPG

3.8

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

12.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.1

13.9

12.8

RPG+0.2

3.8

4.0

APG-0.3

5.3

5.0

SPG-0.5

1.9

1.4

BPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

DET

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DET: 14 pts

WAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs WAS: 10 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 17 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 20 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 28 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 14 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 8 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 2 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

71%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

62%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

65%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

64%

P+A

UNDER 19.5STAKE

66%

P+R

UNDER 18.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.5

13.2

RPG

3.8

4.4

APG

6.8

4.5

vs OKC (H2H)7 games

PPG

12.1

RPG

4.3

APG

3.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	20	62%	+15.3%	medium
Norman Powell	5	12	65%	+9.6%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	2	11	32%	-14.7%	low
Donovan Mitchell	3	11	44%

Suggs Under Pressure: Recent Injury Return and OKC Matchup Limit Upside

Jalen Suggs was cleared from injury on 2/28 but remains in a concerning trajectory. His most recent game vs OKC (3/17) saw him limited to just 6 minutes with 2 points—a stark red flag. Over his last 5 games, he's averaging 12.8 PPG, down from his season 13.9, with turnover rates elevated at 2.4 per game. While Orlando is at home, OKC's elite defense (107.71 rating) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's matchup history (allowing only 36 pts on 13.7 minutes of defensive load) suggest limited scoring opportunities. Suggs' assist line remains his best prop given his home splits favor ball-handling (6.8 APG at home vs 4.5 away).

Stat Trends

PPG

12.8(↓ from 13.9)

APG

5.0(→ from 5.3)

SPG

1.4(↓ from 1.9)

3PM

1.2(↓ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the primary defensive concern, having held opponents to 36 pts on 13.7 minutes of defensive assignment with a 65% FG% allowed rate. Jalen Williams (9.8 min, 10 pts allowed) and Cason Wallace (7.0 min, 4 pts allowed) provide depth. OKC's overall defensive rating of 107.71 ranks elite, and Suggs' recent limited appearance (6 min on 3/17) signals potential ongoing minutes management or defensive challenges against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Suggs▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	14	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	50%	6	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✓
Jalen Suggs▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	80%	4	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	20	✗
Jalen Suggs▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER20%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA5.5UNDER30%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PRA22.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

REB4UNDER28%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

STL2UNDER51%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST6OVER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM2UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA1UNDER1%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Suggs

Assists OVER 4.5MEDIUM

Suggs' season assist average is 5.3 APG with home court showing 6.8 APG. The 4.5 line is below both season and recent 5-game averages (5.0). Even accounting for OKC's strong defense, his primary role as a facilitating guard gives him better odds on assists than scoring. Expect normal minutes tonight vs. the anomalous 6-minute appearance last time.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	5	6	38%	38%
Cason Wallace	2	4	2	50%	50%
Chet Holmgren	2	2	4	40%	40%
Jared McCain	1	2	4	100%	100%
Luguentz Dort	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.568%MEDIUM

Suggs was heavily limited in the last OKC matchup (6 min, 2 pts on 3/17) and remains in a downtrend. OKC's defense rates elite at 107.71 rating. Home advantage (15.33 PPG at home) is offset by the recent injury return and OKC context.

assistsOVER 4.571%HIGH

Suggs averages 6.8 APG at home vs 4.5 away. Season average is 5.3 APG; recent 5-game average is 5.0. Playing at home with normal minutes should push him slightly over the 4.5 line. Expected to see closer to full playing time given the recent brief appearance was an outlier.

reboundsOVER 3.562%MEDIUM

Season rebounds average 3.82; last 5-game average is 4.0. At home, Suggs averages 3.92 RPG. Slight edge to the over given his recent rebounding consistency and home court.

stealsUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

Steals have declined noticeably in the last 5 games (1.4 SPG vs season 1.9). Recent games show variance; last outing vs OKC had 0 steals. Recent mean is 1.4, suggesting under the 1.5 line is more probable.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

Season average is 0.8 BPG; last 5 average is just 0.2, indicating downtrend. However, 0.5 is a low bar. Marginal lean to over based on season baseline, but confidence is modest due to recent decline.

threesUNDER 3.572%HIGH

Suggs' 3PM average season-wide is 1.98; last 5 games he's at 1.2 per game. Even at home (2.42 3PM), the 3.5 line is ambitious. FanDuel offering +154 odds on over reflects this skepticism. Recent shooting variance and overall downtrend support the under.

stocksUNDER 264%MEDIUM

Stocks (steals + blocks) season average is 2.64, but last 5 games show 1.6. Recent 10-game average is 2.1. Given the recent injury context and downward trajectory in both steal and block rates, under 2.0 is slightly favored.

paUNDER 19.566%MEDIUM

Points + Assists: Season expectation is ~19.2 (13.93 + 5.32). Last 5 games average 17.8 (12.8 + 5.0). OKC's defensive pressure and recent offensive decline push this under the 19.5 line.

prUNDER 18.561%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds: Season average ~17.75 (13.93 + 3.82). Last 5 average 16.8 (12.8 + 4.0). At home, the combo averages ~19.25, but OKC context and recent form keep this tight. Lean under given downtrend.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS