Jaylin Williams▼

OKC · C

PPG

7.5

RPG

5.5

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

10.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.9

7.5

10.4

RPG+0.9

5.5

6.4

APG-0.6

2.6

2.0

SPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

BPG-0.3

0.7

0.4

UNDER 5.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

5.5

DET

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs DET: 30 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 12 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 0 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 17 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 8 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 9 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 29 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 0 pts

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 5.5STAKE

72%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

68%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

65%

3PM

OVER 1.51

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.19

62%

P+A

OVER 6.5STAKE

69%

P+R

OVER 9.5STAKE

70%

R+A

OVER 6.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.9

11.1

RPG

5.7

7.2

APG

2.1

3.2

vs ORL (H2H)4 games

PPG

3.5

RPG

3.3

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	3	18	58%	+9.8%	medium
Draymond Green	3	10	95%	+27.8%	medium
Oso Ighodaro	3	10	57%	+14.9%	medium
Jalen Duren	1	8	70%

Williams Sharp Decline vs. Orlando After Explosive Mid-Season Stretch

Jaylin Williams enters tonight's matchup against Orlando in concerning form, having logged just 6 minutes and 0 points in the most recent meeting (March 17). Despite averaging 10.4 PPG and 6.4 RPG over his last 5 games, his trend is marked "down" and recent volatility is extreme (season PPG std: 6.3, recent std: 9.82). The 23.6 MPG in L5 is encouraging, but his 12.75 MPG average vs. Orlando historically, combined with that disastrous recent matchup, suggests limited role potential. Orlando's defense ranks middle-of-pack (114.06 DEF rating) but provides weak three-point suppression (-1.223), which should aid Williams' three-point volume (2.8 FG3M in L5).

Stat Trends

PPG

10.4(↓ from 7.5)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 5.5)

Assists

2.0(↓ from 2.6)

3PM

2.8(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Wendell Carter Jr. has allowed 16 pts on 70% FG in limited matchup time (7.8 min) vs. Williams historically, but the critical concern is role allocation. Williams' 12.75 MPG average vs. Orlando and worst-case 6 minutes in the most recent meeting (March 17) suggest coaching decisions heavily favor limiting his usage. Orlando's weak three-point suppression (-1.223) helps his shooting efficiency, but minutes availability remains the bottleneck.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaylin Williams▼	Points	5.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	30%	8	✗
Jaylin Williams▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✓
Jaylin Williams▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✓
Jaylin Williams▼	3PM	1.51	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✓
Jaylin Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.19	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Jaylin Williams▼	P+A	6.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	10	✓
Jaylin Williams▼	P+R	9.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	14	✓
Jaylin Williams▼	R+A	6.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A12.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 6x6/1932%▼

PTS7.5UNDER17%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/1953%▼

AST2.5UNDER16%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%▼

3PM1.5UNDER24%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)12/1963%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted -0.263▼

PRA15.5OVER6%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.074▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/1932%▼

REB5.5OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)11/1958%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.089▼

3PA5UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x6/1932%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

FTM1UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/1942%▼

FTA1UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Jaylin Williams

Rebounds + Assists OVER 6.5HIGH

Jaylin Williams' L5 average of 6.4 RPG + 2.0 APG = 8.4 combined, and L10 shows 7.4 + 2.7 = 10.1. Away game splits are even stronger at 7.2 + 3.2 = 10.4. The 6.5 line represents conservative pricing relative to his recent role expansion (23.6 MPG in L5) and the combo stat's lower variance compared to points alone. Even accounting for Orlando role risk, the recent data strongly supports exceeding this threshold.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	6	5	67%	67%
Jonathan Isaac	1	3	0	0%	0%
Moritz Wagner	2	3	2	0%	0%
Paolo Banchero	2	2	5	50%	63%
Tristan da Silva	2	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 5.572%HIGH

Williams scored 0 pts on 6 min last time vs. Orlando (March 17). Despite L5 avg of 10.4 PPG, role instability and historical 12.75 MPG vs. ORL suggest limited volume tonight. Season average 7.5 PPG + depressed recent matchup history warrant caution.

reboundsOVER 4.568%MEDIUM

L5 rebound average of 6.4 RPG and L10 avg of 7.4 RPG exceed the line. Away splits show 5.69 RPG, and increased 23.6 MPG in recent games supports higher rebound opportunities despite matchup concerns.

assistsOVER 1.565%MEDIUM

Prop_metrics show recent assist mean of 3.0 with L10 avg of 2.7 APG. Away splits favor 3.2 APG, and b2b metrics at 3.57 APG provide upside. Line is conservative relative to recent volume and role expansion.

threesOVER 1.5166%MEDIUM

Williams has elevated 3PM to 2.8 in L5 and 2.6 in L10, a clear uptrend from 1.51 season avg. Orlando's three-point suppression is weak (-1.223), and his 60%+ three-point volume reflects expanded offensive role. Projected line undervalues this trend.

stocksUNDER 1.1962%MEDIUM

Recent stocks (steals+blocks) average 0.6 in L5, well below the 1.19 season mean. His defensive contributions have waned (bpg down to 0.4 in L5 from 0.7 season). Reduced minutes vs. Orlando limit upside.

paOVER 6.569%MEDIUM

Points + Assists: Combining 10.4 PPG (L5) + 2.0 APG (L5) = 12.4 avg. Even accounting for role uncertainty, the recent volume trends and away split advantages (11.1 PPG, 3.2 APG) suggest this combo exceeds 6.5 consistently.

prOVER 9.570%HIGH

Points + Rebounds: L5 avg of 10.4 PPG + 6.4 RPG = 16.8. Even with Orlando role risk, the 9.5 line is conservative. Away splits show 11.1 PPG + 7.2 RPG = 18.3, providing solid margin of safety.

raOVER 6.567%MEDIUM

Rebounds + Assists: L5 avg of 6.4 RPG + 2.0 APG = 8.4. L10 shows 7.4 + 2.7 = 10.1. Away splits yield 7.2 + 3.2 = 10.4. Line is well below recent volume trends on both timescales.

timelineUNDER 5.5 PTS