Luguentz Dort▼

OKC · SF

PPG

8.5

RPG

3.8

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

4.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.9

8.5

4.6

RPG-0.6

3.8

3.2

APG-0.7

1.3

0.6

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

DET

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs DET: 3 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 5 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 16 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 0 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

72%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

65%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

62%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

68%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

70%

P+A

UNDER 11.5STAKE

70%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

68%

R+A

UNDER 5.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

69%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.2

7.0

RPG

3.5

APG

1.3

1.5

vs ORL (H2H)10 games

PPG

9.7

RPG

3.0

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	2	21	50%	+11.5%	low
Jamal Murray	3	19	45%	+4.4%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	18	31%	-10.7%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	17	71%

Dort's Sharp Decline Continues Against Orlando in Back-to-Back Spot

Luguentz Dort is in a significant downward trend, averaging just 4.6 PPG over his last 5 games compared to 8.5 for the season, with minutes dropping to 23.4 MPG. His most recent outing against Orlando (3/17) was particularly concerning: 7 minutes, 0 points on 1 FGA. Against the Magic specifically, Dort averages 9.7 PPG across 10 prior matchups, but recent form suggests he's lost offensive rhythm. Orlando's defense ranks 114.06 in defensive rating with strong three-point suppression (-1.223), which aligns poorly with Dort's shooting struggles (33.2% from three, 37.6% FG). Playing on the road without back-to-back rest advantage after limited court time in the last meeting makes this an uncomfortable spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.6(↓ from 8.5)

3PM

1.2(↓ from 1.9)

Minutes

23.4(↓ from 28.0)

Stocks (STL+BLK)

1.0(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Paolo Banchero is the primary wing defender for Orlando, allowing 32 PPG on 51.9% FG—though that inflates against high-volume scorers. Dort's reduced offensive role and declining efficiency (37.6% FG, 33.2% 3PT) mean Banchero won't need to work hard; Orlando's secondary wings (Suggs, Carter Jr.) see minimal assignment time, reducing defensive pressure variability.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Luguentz Dort▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%	5	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	90%	5	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	7	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	R+A	5.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5UNDER6%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS7.5OVER4%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA5.5UNDER34%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

3PM1.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

AST1OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

R+A4.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

REB2.5OVER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)13/2065%+12.4% edge▼

FTA0.5UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R11.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Luguentz Dort

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

Dort's decline is undeniable: 4.6 PPG last 5 games, 5.9 over 10, with minutes eroding to 23.4 per game. His most recent appearance vs. Orlando (0 points in 7 minutes on 3/17) is the ultimate red flag. Even season average is only 8.5 PPG, and road splits (7.0) combined with Orlando's defensive efficiency and Dort's offensive struggles make 9.5 a clear ceiling. The line assumes health and normal role, neither of which appear likely.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Paolo Banchero	2	8	9	43%	50%
Desmond Bane	2	7	9	50%	75%
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	1	0	0%	0%
Tristan da Silva	2	1	3	50%	75%
Noah Penda	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.572%HIGH

Dort has dropped to 4.6 PPG in last 5 games and 5.9 PPG over last 10, nearly 4 points below this line. Most recent outing vs. Orlando was just 0 points in 7 minutes, establishing a concerningly low baseline.

reboundsOVER 3.565%MEDIUM

Recent mean of 4.2 RPG (last 5) and 3.8 RPG (last 10) hover around this line. Season splits show 3.78-3.87 across home/away, providing modest cushion below the line despite reduced minutes.

assistsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

Last 5 average just 0.6 APG; while last 10 is 1.1 and season is 1.28, recent trajectory and reduced offensive involvement in 7-minute appearance suggest regression. Away splits (1.5) match line exactly but recency bias favors under.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Season steals average 0.8 SPG; last 5 is 0.6, and away splits show only 0.4 SPG. This line is well above reliable output. Orlando's scoring suppression (-0.289) doesn't necessarily correlate to steal opportunities.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

Season average 0.4 BPG; last 5 is 0.4; away splits drop to 0.1 BPG. Dort is not a shot-blocker, and this line requires nearly half a block above his typical volume in an unfavorable matchup.

paUNDER 11.570%HIGH

Last 5 combined PPG + APG is 5.2, well below this line. Season PA metric is 9.8 (8.53 PPG + 1.28 APG), and recent decline across both components pushes well under 11.5.

prUNDER 13.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 PPG + RPG is 7.8, significantly under this line. Season P+R is 12.35 (8.53 + 3.82), and the sharp downtrend in scoring combined with reduced minutes creates vulnerability above 13.5.

raUNDER 5.563%MEDIUM

Last 5 R+A is 3.8 (3.2 + 0.6), well below line. Season R+A is 5.1, tight against the line, but recent low-assist stretch (0.6 APG) erodes cushion despite modest rebound consistency.

stocksUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

Last 5 stocks (STL+BLK) average 1.0 per game. Away splits show only 0.93 combined. Season mean 1.26 with std of 1.18 shows high variance, but recent away performance and reduced minutes cap upside on this line.

threesUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

Last 5 3PM average 1.2, just under line. While season 3PM is 1.86 and away splits favor 2.07, recent shooting regression (33.2% FG% season, poor efficiency vs Boston/Denver/Chi) and Orlando's strong 3-point suppression (-1.223) suggest difficulty reaching 1.5 makes.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS