C
Moritz Wagner▲
ORL · C
PPG
7.7
RPG
3.7
APG
0.8
L5 PPG
5.0
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-2.7
7.7
5.0
RPG+0.3
3.7
4.0
APG-0.4
0.8
0.4
SPG-0.3
0.5
0.2
BPG0.0
0.0
0.0
UNDER 7.5 PTS
Last 10 games
8
Current Streak
8
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
7.5
9
DET
2026-03-01
2026-03-01 vs DET: 9 pts
10
WAS
2026-03-03
2026-03-03 vs WAS: 10 pts
6
DAL
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs DAL: 6 pts
7
MIN
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 vs MIN: 7 pts
3
MIL
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs MIL: 3 pts
1
CLE
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs CLE: 1 pts
7
WAS
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs WAS: 7 pts
7
MIA
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs MIA: 7 pts
7
ATL
2026-03-16
2026-03-16 vs ATL: 7 pts
3
OKC
2026-03-17
2026-03-17 vs OKC: 3 pts
Over 7.5
Under 7.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 7.5STAKE
65%
REB
OVER 3.5STAKE
62%
AST
OVER 0.5STAKE
58%
STL
UNDER 0.5STAKE
70%
P+A
UNDER 8.5STAKE
60%
P+R
UNDER 11.5STAKE
62%
R+A
OVER 4.5STAKE
61%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
8.6
7.0
RPG
3.7
4.4
APG
0.8
1.1
vs OKC (H2H)9 games
PPG
7.8
RPG
3.9
APG
0.8
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jericho Sims | 3 | 12 | 100% | +58.2% | medium |
| Thomas Bryant | 3 | 5 | 50% | -1.8% | medium |
| Maxime Raynaud | 2 | 4 | 0% | -41.8% | low |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 2 | 4 | 0% |
Wagner Struggles vs OKC Defense Despite Home-Court Edge
Moritz Wagner is in a back-to-back scenario playing at home against Oklahoma City's elite defense (107.71 DRtg). His last outing vs OKC on 3/17 was disastrous—just 4 minutes and 3 points. While his last-20 numbers (7.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG) show modest improvement, the recent last-5 trend reveals a significant dip to 5.0 PPG with only 11 MPG. Wagner's role remains highly dependent on matchup and lineup decisions, making volume unpredictable. The Thunder's key defenders (Holmgren, Hartenstein, Williams) have held him to limited scoring in prior meetings.
Stat Trends
PPG
5.0(↓ from 7.7)
RPG
4.0(→ from 3.7)
APG
0.4(↓ from 0.8)
MPG
11.0(↓ from 12.9)
Key Matchup
OKC's defense is elite (107.71 DRtg) and has held Wagner to minimal output in recent meetings. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have limited Wagner's efficiency. The Thunder's three-suppression (0.879) counters Wagner's outside shooting, forcing mid-range and interior play where OKC's rim protection is strong.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moritz Wagner▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
Moritz Wagner▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Moritz Wagner▼ | Assists | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
Moritz Wagner▼ | Steals | 0.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | — | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Moritz Wagner▼ | P+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 5 | ✓ |
Moritz Wagner▼ | P+R | 11.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 6 | ✓ |
Moritz Wagner▼ | R+A | 4.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
ML Scout Analysis
PTS7UNDER41%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 10x3/1520%▼
PRA12UNDER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x3/1520%▼
FTM2UNDER44%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)5/1533%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼
P+R10OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)9/1560%▼
REB3OVER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)7/1547%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼
P+A7OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/1553%▼
FTA2UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)6/1540%▼
R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/1547%▼
Featured Pick
Moritz Wagner
Points UNDER 7.5MEDIUM
Wagner's recent form (5.0 PPG last-5, 6.3 PPG recent) combined with a back-to-back situation and OKC's stifling defense creates downside pressure. His last game vs OKC (4 min, 3 pts) and limited role dependency suggest 7.5 is ambitious. The -135 over odds reflect sharp money respecting the downside, but the UNDER at -106 offers better value given volume uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.