Paolo Banchero▼

ORL · PF

PPG

22.2

RPG

8.6

APG

5.0

L5 PPG

19.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.0

22.2

19.2

RPG-1.0

8.6

7.6

APG-0.4

5.0

4.6

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 30.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

30.5

DET

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DET: 24 pts

WAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs WAS: 37 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 25 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 33 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 25 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 27 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 8 pts

Over 30.5

Under 30.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 30.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

72%

3PM

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.3

58%

R+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

60%

P+R

UNDER 27.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 25.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.0

25.3

RPG

7.4

8.6

APG

4.8

5.3

vs OKC (H2H)6 games

PPG

18.0

RPG

6.0

APG

5.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Johnson	3	21	50%	+0.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	18	50%	-9.1%	medium
Pascal Siakam	3	18	59%	+4.1%	medium
Scottie Barnes	3	18	50%

Banchero Faces Tough OKC Defense in B2B, But Recent 10-Game Streak Suggests Bounce-Back

Paolo is on a downward trend in his last 5 games (19.2 PPG vs 22.2 season), coinciding with a back-to-back situation and a concerning 10-minute, 8-point outing vs OKC just two days ago. However, his last 10-game average (23.1 PPG) remains solid, and he typically performs better away from home (25.3 PPG away vs 20.0 at home). OKC's defense ranks 107.71 rating with neutral scoring suppression (-1.76), but Luguentz Dort—who will likely guard Banchero—held him to 16 points on .375 FG in 22.5 minutes. The back-to-back fatigue is a real concern, as his B2B points average (21.44) trails his season mean significantly.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.2(↓ from 22.2)

RPG

7.6(↓ from 8.6)

APG

4.6(→ from 5.0)

3PM

1.0(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Luguentz Dort is the primary defender with 22.5 MPG, holding Banchero to just 16 points on .375 FG in their recent matchup. OKC's neutral defensive environment won't provide easy buckets, and Dort's length and physicality specifically challenge Paolo's scoring—a critical factor given his already-declining last-5 PPG (19.2) and back-to-back status.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Paolo Banchero▼	Points	30.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	32	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	Rebounds	11.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	10	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	50%	5	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	3	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	STL+BLK	1.3	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	R+A	16.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	15	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	10%	42	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	P+A	25.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	37	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

PTS24UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

FTA8.5OVER1%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA39.5UNDER38%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST5.5UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

3PA3.5UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 5x10/2050%▼

REB8UNDER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+A29UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM7UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A13UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER43%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Paolo Banchero

Assists OVER 4.5MEDIUM

FanDuel's 4.5 line is conservative versus Paolo's season (5.0 APG) and away split (5.3 APG). While back-to-back play is a headwind, his playmaking has remained stable (4.3-5.3 range across rolling windows). A home game for ORL and neutral OKC defense create reasonable opportunity for assists. Recent games show multiple 6-7 assist efforts even amid scoring struggles.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Chet Holmgren	2	8	11	56%	56%
Luguentz Dort	2	5	3	33%	50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	3	11	56%	61%
Alex Caruso	2	3	0	0%	0%
Kenrich Williams	1	2	7	100%	117%

pointsUNDER 30.568%MEDIUM

Banchero's last 5 PPG (19.2) trails the 30.5 line significantly. Back-to-back play + recent 10-minute performance vs OKC + Dort's tight defense (16 pts allowed) suggests struggle. DraftKings' 30.5 is aggressive given recent form.

reboundsUNDER 11.562%MEDIUM

Season RPG is 8.6, last 5 is 7.6. B2B fatigue typically suppresses rebounding. DraftKings line at 11.5 exceeds season mean by 2.9 boards. Last game vs OKC: only 2 rebounds in 10 minutes.

assistsOVER 4.572%HIGH

Season APG is 5.0, last 5 is 4.6, and away split is 5.3. FanDuel's conservative 4.5 line sits below season average. Paolo typically facilitates on road games, and OKC's neutral defensive pressure allows playmaking opportunities.

threesUNDER 3.565%MEDIUM

Season 3PM is 1.16 per game, last 5 is 1.0. DraftKings at 3.5 triples his average. Recent 10-game shows 1.2 per game. Recent game vs OKC: 1 of 2. Line is well above recent volume.

stocksUNDER 1.358%MEDIUM

Season stocks average 1.25 (0.6 SPG + 0.6 BPG), last 5 is 0.6. B2B context shows 0.78 stocks on average. Projected line at 1.3 is slightly above season, but recent cooling and defensive focus on Dort makes this marginal.

raUNDER 16.560%MEDIUM

Rebounds (7.6 L5) + Assists (4.6 L5) sum to 12.2. Season R+A is 13.6. Projected 16.5 implies a return to season form; B2B context and recent OKC matchup (2 REB, 1 AST in 10 min) suggest continued underperformance.

prUNDER 27.566%MEDIUM

Points (19.2 L5) + Rebounds (7.6 L5) = 26.8 recent average. Season P+R is 30.8, but last 5 pace and B2B context lower expectation. Dort's defense and overall downtrend point to underperformance vs 27.5.

paUNDER 25.564%MEDIUM

Points (19.2 L5) + Assists (4.6 L5) = 23.8 recent. Season P+A is 27.2. Line at 25.5 sits between recent and season; back-to-back fatigue and defensive pressure from OKC suggest Paolo stays below this threshold.

timelineUNDER 30.5 PTS