Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼

OKC · PG

PPG

31.6

RPG

4.5

APG

6.7

L5 PPG

25.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.0

31.6

25.6

RPG+0.3

4.5

4.8

APG+1.3

6.7

8.0

SPG0.0

1.4

BPG+0.4

0.8

1.2

UNDER 35.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

35.5

DEN

2026-02-01

2026-02-01 vs DEN: 34 pts

ORL

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs ORL: 20 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 36 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 30 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 26 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 27 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 35 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 35 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 20 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 11 pts

Over 35.5

Under 35.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 35.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

OVER 6.5STAKE

72%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

68%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

71%

P+A

UNDER 39.5STAKE

64%

R+A

OVER 11.5STAKE

66%

P+R

UNDER 37.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

30.5

28.9

RPG

4.9

3.7

APG

7.6

6.2

vs ORL (H2H)10 games

PPG

26.2

RPG

4.4

APG

6.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	4	19	35%	-25.2%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	15	57%	-8.5%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	14	60%	-15.2%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	12	35%

SGA Faces Familiar Foe Orlando with Recent Dip but Elevated Assist Outlook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters this matchup against Orlando with a concerning 25.6 PPG over his last 5 games, down from 31.6 season average and marked by a brutal 12-minute, 11-point outing just two games ago (3/17 vs ORL). However, his assist production has surged to 8.0 APG over the last 5 and 8.4 APG over the last 10, suggesting a shift toward playmaking. Against Orlando specifically, SGA averages 26.2 PPG across 10 career matchups with a more recent 20 PPG performance on 2/3. The Magic's defense ranks 114.06 in efficiency with a -0.289 scoring suppression rate, offering mild resistance but not elite lockdown capability.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.6(↓ from 31.6)

APG

8.0(↑ from 6.7)

3PM

1.6(↓ from 1.7)

STL+BLK

2.6(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Jalen Suggs has been the primary defender on SGA in recent meetings (10 min), allowing 22 points on 58% FG. Orlando's overall defense (114.06 DRTG, -0.289 scoring suppression) is below-average, offering minimal rim protection. However, SGA's 12-minute, 11-point performance vs ORL on 3/17 (just 2 games ago) indicates either minutes management or defensive intensity variance.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Points	35.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	40	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	90%	3	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	P+A	39.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	42	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	R+A	11.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	P+R	37.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	45	✗

ML Scout Analysis

AST5.5OVER12%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

PRA40.5OVER10%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+R34.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

P+A37UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS30.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+5.1% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%+6.7% edge▼

3PA3.5UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

R+A11.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

STL1.5UNDER5%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

FTM6UNDER18%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA7.5UNDER5%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB4.5UNDER53%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Assists OVER 6.5HIGH

SGA's last 5 games average 8.0 APG and last 10 shows 8.4 APG—a clear, sustained uptrend in playmaking volume. Recent game logs confirm double-digit assist performances (13 on 2/1, 15 on 3/9, 10 on 3/15). The 6.5 line sits comfortably below this recent baseline, and the shift toward ball-movement role is durable. Pair with Rebounds OVER 4.5 for a complementary 2-leg combo.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tristan da Silva	2	9	7	33%	42%
Jalen Suggs	2	5	15	75%	94%
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	2	4	25%	25%
Paolo Banchero	2	2	8	80%	80%
Jett Howard	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 35.562%MEDIUM

Recent downturn to 25.6 PPG (last 5) and subpar 20 PPG vs Orlando on 2/3 suggest elevated lines at 35.5–36.5 are optimistic. Season average of 31.6 anchors true expectation closer to 30–32 range.

assistsOVER 6.572%HIGH

Last 5 average 8.0 APG and last 10 shows 8.4 APG—clear uptrend in playmaking role. Recent game logs (2/1: 13 AST, 3/9: 15 AST) confirm elevated assist volume. Line of 6.5 sits well below recent form.

reboundsOVER 4.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 average 4.8 RPG and last 10 shows 4.4 RPG. Recent games include 6 (3/12 vs BOS) and 9 (3/9 vs DEN). Home-court splits show 4.94 RPG at home, though this is away. Edge exists at 4.5.

stealsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Last 10 average 1.8 SPG and last 5 holds 1.4 SPG. Recent games show volatility (4 on 3/1, 1 on 3/7) but season mean is 1.4. Slight lean OVER but moderate confidence given variance.

blocksOVER 0.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 average 1.2 BPG and last 10 shows 0.9 BPG. Recent games include 3 (3/12), 1 (3/15, 3/9, 3/7), demonstrating elevated defensive activity. Line at 0.5 is conservative vs recent form.

threesUNDER 2.571%HIGH

Season 1.73 3PM, last 5 shows 1.6, and last 10 drops to 1.2. Recent Orlando matchup (2/3) featured just 1 three. Line at 2.5 is inflated; expect 1–2 makes.

paUNDER 39.564%MEDIUM

Points (35.5 DK line) + Assists (8.0 last 5 avg) = ~43.5 theoretical, but downtrend in PPG (25.6 last 5) pulls projection toward 33.5–35 points. 39.5 line assumes heavier scoring than recent form justifies.

raOVER 11.566%MEDIUM

Rebounds (4.9 last 5) + Assists (8.0 last 5) = 12.9 theoretical. Even with conservative 30 PPG, 4.5 RPG + 8.0 APG = 12.5. Line at 11.5 sits below recent assist-rebound pairing.

prUNDER 37.560%MEDIUM

Points downturn to 25.6 (last 5) + Rebounds at 4.8 = ~30.4. Line of 37.5 assumes points bounce back to 32+; recent trajectory does not support that level.

timelineUNDER 35.5 PTS