Wendell Carter Jr.▼

ORL · C

PPG

11.9

RPG

7.7

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

12.8

Last 10 GamesREB

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.9

11.9

12.8

RPG-0.7

7.7

7.0

APG-0.1

2.1

2.0

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

OVER 7.5 REB

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

HOU

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs HOU: 6 reb

DET

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DET: 9 reb

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 7 reb

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 6 reb

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 5 reb

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 11 reb

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 11 reb

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 8 reb

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 3 reb

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 2 reb

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

72%

PTS

OVER 11.5STAKE

62%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

58%

P+A

OVER 16.5STAKE

64%

P+R

UNDER 15.5STAKE

60%

R+A

OVER 7.5STAKE

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.2

10.6

RPG

7.9

7.5

APG

1.8

1.9

vs OKC (H2H)9 games

PPG

15.7

RPG

9.9

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bam Adebayo	5	42	46%	-7.1%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	24	83%	+23.2%	medium
Jalen Duren	4	22	42%	-10.1%	medium
Evan Mobley	4	19	47%

Carter Faces Tough Matchup After Limited Minutes vs OKC; Rebounds the Safe Bet

Wendell Carter Jr. is in a concerning spot after playing just 8 minutes against OKC on March 17, posting only 2 points on 1-of-2 shooting. However, his season averages (11.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) and recent form (12.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG last 5 games) suggest that was a significant outlier—likely due to foul trouble or matchup management. Against OKC historically, Carter has excelled (15.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG over 9 games), but OKC's defense ranks well (107.71 def rating, -1.76 scoring suppression). Orlando is on a back-to-back after playing Atlanta on March 16, which typically correlates with reduced minutes for centers. Rebounding remains his most consistent outlet.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.8(↓ from 11.9)

RPG

7.0(→ from 7.7)

APG

2.0(→ from 2.1)

Stocks (STL+BLK)

1.2(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

OKC's primary defenders against Carter are Jaylin Williams (8.1 min, held him to 2 pts on 1-of-6), Luguentz Dort (7.7 min, 3 pts allowed), and Chet Holmgren (6.2 min, 9 pts allowed on 4-of-6). The Williams matchup from the March 17 game was a complete shutdown, though Carter's limited 8-minute role likely contributed. Holmgren's longer-range availability may offer gaps. OKC's overall defense is solid (107.71 rating, -1.76 scoring suppression), presenting a real challenge to Carter's scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	40%	5	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Points	11.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	P+A	16.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	14	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	16	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	R+A	7.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	8	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA21.5UNDER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

AST2UNDER51%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

3PA2UNDER41%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6OVER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTA4UNDER5%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Wendell Carter Jr.

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

Carter's rebounding is his most stable skill: 7.7 RPG season, 7.0 last 5, 9.9 RPG vs OKC historically. Back-to-back games typically don't suppress rebounding for centers in the way they do scoring. Even if minutes dip, his usage on the glass remains reliable. Low variance (std 2.65) makes this the safest prop on the slate.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Isaiah Hartenstein	2	6	6	67%	67%
Jaylin Williams	2	5	0	0%	0%
Chet Holmgren	2	3	4	67%	67%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	2	7	43%	50%
Alex Caruso	2	1	0	0%	0%

reboundsOVER 7.572%HIGH

Carter averages 7.7 RPG on the season and 7.0 last 5 games. Against OKC, he's averaged 9.9 RPG over 9 matchups. Back-to-back status typically reduces point production but not rebounding volume for centers.

pointsOVER 11.562%MEDIUM

Season average of 11.9 PPG and last-5 average of 12.8 PPG both exceed the 11.5 line. vs OKC career average of 15.7 PPG is strong, though his 8-minute outing on March 17 suggests potential minutes restrictions remain a risk.

assistsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Carter averages 2.1 APG on the season and 2.0 last 5 games. Back-to-back games can shift offensive responsibilities; his 2.1 season APG is slightly above the line, but recent variance is high (std 0.94).

paOVER 16.564%MEDIUM

Points (11.9) + Assists (2.1) = 14.0 season average, and points (12.8) + assists (2.0) = 14.8 last 5. Recent combo performance slightly below the line, but vs OKC boost to points (15.7) pushes the combo closer.

prUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

Points (11.9) + Rebounds (7.7) = 19.6 season, but back-to-back context and the recent 8-minute outing suggest reduced minutes and offensive load. Last 20 games show 9.9 PPG, pushing the combo to ~17.6, which creeps above the line but margin is tight.

raOVER 7.568%MEDIUM

Rebounds (7.7) + Assists (2.1) = 9.8 season average. Rebounds are highly consistent (7.7 last 5, 7.7 last 20), and assists are stable (2.0-2.1 range). This combo is Carter's most reliable play.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

Season average for steals + blocks is 1.46, just under the 1.5 line. Last 5 games: 1.2 stocks. Recent trend is down; variance is high (std 1.24). OKC allows 0.879 three-point suppression but neutral on overall defensive steals/blocks.

timelineOVER 7.5 REB