Aaron Gordon▲

DEN · PF

PPG

17.0

RPG

6.1

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

13.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.8

17.0

13.2

RPG-0.5

6.1

5.6

APG0.0

2.4

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

MIL

2026-01-11

2026-01-11 vs MIL: 23 pts

NOP

2026-01-13

2026-01-13 vs NOP: 16 pts

DAL

2026-01-14

2026-01-14 vs DAL: 22 pts

WAS

2026-01-17

2026-01-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

LAL

2026-01-20

2026-01-20 vs LAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-01-23

2026-01-23 vs MIL: 13 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 3 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 23 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 27 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 1

60%

PRA

OVER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

P+R

OVER 21.5FANDUEL

66%

R+A

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.7

17.5

RPG

6.1

6.4

APG

3.4

1.8

vs PHI (H2H)10 games

PPG

12.2

RPG

3.6

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	12	53%	-0.3%	low
Alex Sarr	2	11	42%	-8.6%	low
Zion Williamson	2	11	33%	-17.0%	low
Julius Randle	2	10	43%

Gordon Flashes Upside at Home vs. Struggling Philly Defense

Aaron Gordon is available after clearing the injury report and faces a Philadelphia defense yielding 115.91 points per 100 possessions with a -29.9% three-point suppression rate. At home, Gordon averages 14.7 PPG over 9 games but shows elevated assist production (3.4 APG) in that split. His last 10-game stretch shows improvement with 15.3 PPG and 3.6 APG, though recent games display volatility (0 pts vs HOU, 27 pts vs LAL). Head-to-head history vs Philadelphia is concerning at 12.2 PPG, but Denver's 3-day rest advantage and the matchup quality favor a productive outing.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.2(↓ from 17.0)

RPG

5.6(→ from 6.1)

APG

2.4(→ from 2.4)

3PM

1.6(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Philadelphia's permissive defense (115.91 DRtg, -29.9% three-point suppression) and limited wing depth (Adem Bona minimal minutes, Justin Edwards minimal minutes) offer little resistance. Gordon's primary threat comes from Denver's defensive pressure and pace control, but Philly's spacing issues favor his interior/mid-range scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Aaron Gordon▼	Points	15.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	12	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	60%	5	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	STL+BLK	1	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	PRA	23.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	19	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	P+R	21.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	17	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	R+A	7.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	7	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A18OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Gordon

Rebounds OVER 5.5HIGH

Gordon's season RPG of 6.1 and last 10 of 6.1 sit comfortably above the 5.5 line. Home/away splits are identical (~6.1), and with 3 days rest and Philly's league-average rebounding defense, Gordon should consistently hit this mark. High volume, low variance edge.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dominick Barlow	1	4	2	25%	25%
Adem Bona	1	1	2	0%	0%
Justin Edwards	1	1	0	0%	0%
VJ Edgecombe	1	1	2	100%	100%
Quentin Grimes	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 15.565%MEDIUM

Gordon averages 18.93 PPG away from home vs. 14.83 at home, but tonight he's at home vs. a permissive defense (115.91 DRtg). Recent form shows 13.2 L5 PPG, but last 10 shows 15.3 PPG with elevated minutes (27.8 MPG). The 15.5 line is slightly below his season average of 17.0 PPG.

reboundsOVER 5.572%HIGH

Gordon's season RPG is 6.1 and maintains 6.1 L10, with last 5 at 5.6. Home/away splits are nearly identical (6.08 vs 6.14), and he's cleared injury. This line sits 0.5 below season average, offering solid value with consistent volume.

assistsOVER 2.568%MEDIUM

Last 10 avg is 3.6 APG (up from 2.4 season), and home split is 3.4 APG vs 1.8 away. At home tonight, Gordon projects above the 2.5 line. Recent games show elevated assist volume (11 AST vs WAS, 5 AST vs LAL).

threesOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

Season 3PM is 1.85, last 10 is 1.7, and away split is 2.29 vs home 1.33. However, Gordon shot 5 threes vs LAL recently. At 1.5, the line is conservative relative to season average of 1.85, though home splits suggest slight caution.

stocksOVER 160%MEDIUM

Stocks (STL+BLK) average 0.88 season, 1.0 last 10, and 1.07 away. Last game vs OKC posted 1 steal, and recent form shows combined 1.2 L5. Projected line of 1.0 is near floor; modest edge over.

praOVER 23.570%HIGH

Season PRA is 17+6.1+2.4 = 25.5, last 10 is 15.3+6.1+3.6 = 25.0. At home (14.7+6.1+3.4 = 24.2), Gordon sits marginally below the 23.5 line but within margin of variance. Slight fade on this combo given recent PPG softness, though last game 27 PTS provides upside catalyst.

prOVER 21.566%MEDIUM

Season P+R is 17.0+6.1 = 23.1, last 10 is 15.3+6.1 = 21.4. Home split is 14.7+6.1 = 20.8, placing this slightly below projection. Gordon's recent volatility and home underperformance on scoring create slight headwind.

raUNDER 7.568%MEDIUM

R+A last 10 is 6.1+3.6 = 9.7, but home split is 6.1+3.4 = 9.5. The 7.5 line is conservative, and Gordon should clear this regularly. However, vs Philadelphia's solid wing defense, assist upside may be capped—slight lean under given recent 3-day rest context.

timelineOVER 15.5 PTS