Dominick Barlow▲

PHI · PF

PPG

8.3

RPG

4.7

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.9

8.3

10.2

RPG-0.3

4.7

4.4

APG-0.1

1.1

1.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

MIA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs MIA: 9 pts

BOS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BOS: 14 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 0 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 7 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 4 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 8 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 11 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

65%

PRA

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

P+A

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.8

9.9

RPG

3.7

4.9

APG

0.8

0.9

vs DEN (H2H)3 games

PPG

4.7

RPG

3.3

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Johnson	3	21	44%	-14.3%	medium
Pascal Siakam	2	14	50%	-11.4%	low
Scottie Barnes	3	12	38%	-16.8%	medium
Jaylen Brown	2	11	80%

Barlow Surges in Last 5 but Faces Elite Denver Defense in Road Matchup

Dominick Barlow has heated up recently, averaging 10.2 PPG over his last 5 games compared to 8.3 for the season, signaling positive momentum heading into Denver. However, the Nuggets' elite defense (116.96 DEF rating, 38.2% scoring suppression) presents a significant challenge, and Barlow's historical struggles against Denver (4.7 PPG in 3 prior meetings) warrant caution. Playing on the road in Denver, where Barlow averages 9.9 PPG away vs. 7.8 at home, provides some encouragement, but the Nuggets' defensive prowess and Aaron Gordon's presence (who has defended Barlow recently) will likely suppress his scoring ceiling. Minutes appear secure at 26.8 MPG in the last 5 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↑ from 8.3)

RPG

4.4(→ from 4.7)

Stocks (STL+BLK)

1.8(↑ from 1.6)

Assists

1.0(→ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Aaron Gordon has recent defensive minutes against Barlow (30% of matchup time, 0 pts allowed in limited sample), and the Nuggets' elite defense (116.96 rating) systematically suppresses scoring. Denver's 38.2% scoring suppression is among the best in the league, and Barlow's 4.7 PPG in 3 prior head-to-heads underscores historical struggles in this matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Dominick Barlow▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	8	✓
Dominick Barlow▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	9	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	70%	4	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	21	✗
Dominick Barlow▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS5.5OVER25%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x14/1974%+23.7% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA10.5OVER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x14/1974%+22.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.527▼

P+A9UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/1947%▼

REB3.5UNDER9%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)11/1958%▼

AST1UNDER11%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)9/1947%▼

FTA2UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x4/1921%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTM1UNDER28%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/1937%▼

Featured Pick

Dominick Barlow

Assists UNDER 1.5HIGH

Barlow's assist rate is remarkably consistent and low: 1.1 season, 1.0 last 5, 0.9 last 10, even with elevated recent minutes (25.7+ MPG). Even against defenses not elite at turnover creation, he rarely generates assist opportunities. This prop offers strong value with minimal variance.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Aaron Gordon	1	4	10	75%	100%
Spencer Jones	2	2	6	100%	125%
DaRon Holmes II	1	2	0	0%	0%
Nikola Jokić	1	1	4	100%	100%
Zeke Nnaji	1	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 9.562%MEDIUM

Barlow's recent uptick to 10.2 PPG is encouraging, but Denver's 38.2% scoring suppression and his 4.7 PPG average in 3 prior meetings vs. Denver are red flags. Road travel and elite defense should keep him below the line.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

Season average is 4.7 RPG, but last 5 dips to 4.4. Away splits (5.3 RPG) are stronger, but the Nuggets' pace (100) and Denver's overall defensive profile should moderate rebounding volume.

assistsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

Barlow consistently underperforms on assists: 1.1 season average, 1.0 last 5, 0.9 last 10. Even at 25.7+ minutes in recent games, assists rarely exceed 1.5, making this a solid under.

stocksOVER 1.565%MEDIUM

Stocks average 1.7 last 5 games and 1.63 season-wide with low variance (1.0 std recent). Barlow has recorded 2+ stocks in 3 of his last 5 games, supporting an over on 1.5.

praUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

PRA combines points, rebounds, and assists. Last 5 average is roughly 15.6 (10.2 PPG + 4.4 RPG + 1.0 APG), right at the line. Denver's defense and Barlow's historical struggles vs. this opponent push toward the under.

paUNDER 11.564%MEDIUM

Points + Assists last 5 average ~11.2, barely below the line. Denver's scoring suppression (38.2%) and Barlow's low assist rate (1.0 last 5) suggest he'll struggle to reach 11.5 combined.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS