Quentin Grimes▲

PHI · SG

PPG

13.7

RPG

3.7

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.9

13.7

22.6

RPG+0.7

3.7

4.4

APG-0.2

3.4

3.2

SPG+0.5

0.9

1.4

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

20.5

MIA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs MIA: 9 pts

BOS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BOS: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 2 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 16 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 26 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 17 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 23 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 14 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 28 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 31 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

65%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

62%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 29.5FANDUEL

64%

P+R

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

65%

P+A

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.9

12.9

RPG

3.9

2.9

APG

1.8

3.5

vs DEN (H2H)7 games

PPG

11.0

RPG

2.7

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anfernee Simons	3	13	71%	+4.9%	medium
Duncan Robinson	4	10	75%	+4.9%	medium
Payton Pritchard	4	10	25%	-20.1%	medium
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	10	69%

Grimes Surging on Road, but Denver's Defense Presents Steep Matchup Challenge

Quentin Grimes has been on a tear over the last 5 games, averaging 22.6 PPG on 35.4 MPG—a significant jump from his season average of 13.7 PPG. However, this is an away game against Denver, and Grimes historically underperforms on the road (12.9 PPG vs. 15.9 at home). More concerning: Denver's defense rates 116.96 (league rank), and Grimes has struggled badly vs. the Nuggets historically, averaging just 11.0 PPG over 7 prior meetings on only 24.3 MPG. Jamal Murray has been Denver's primary defender against him, allowing 17 PPG on 41% FG—not lockdown D, but the minutes allocation suggests a defensive strategy to contain. Recent games show volatility: 31 PTS vs. POR, 28 vs. BKN, but then 14 vs. DET and 17 vs. CLE on the road.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↑ from 13.7)

RPG

4.4(↑ from 3.7)

APG

3.2(→ from 3.4)

3P Made

1.0(↓ from 1.8)

Stocks (STL+BLK)

1.8(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Jamal Murray has been Denver's primary defender on Grimes, logging 16.1 minutes with 17 points allowed on 41% FG. However, Grimes' 7-game history vs. Denver shows severe suppression (11.0 PPG, 24.3 MPG), indicating Denver's overall defensive scheme constrains his offensive load. The Nuggets do not suppress three-point shooting (-0.617 suppression ratio), but Grimes' road shooting is inconsistent and his minutes tend to be lower vs. Denver.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Quentin Grimes▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	12	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	15	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.482; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

PTS13.5UNDER31%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

REB4UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER14%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

FTA2.5UNDER15%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER38%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Quentin Grimes

Points UNDER 20.5MEDIUM

Grimes' recent hot streak (22.6 PPG last 5) is heavily influenced by home games and soft matchups. Against Denver specifically, he averages just 11.0 PPG over 7 contests on minimal minutes (24.3 MPG). Road context + Denver's defensive profile + historical matchup data all point to underperformance vs. the 20.5 line. The recent surge masks a recurring pattern of struggle in this specific matchup.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Peyton Watson	1	4	5	33%	50%
Jalen Pickett	1	3	2	25%	25%
Bruce Brown	2	3	7	60%	70%
Jamal Murray	1	2	2	100%	100%
Cameron Johnson	1	2	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 20.568%MEDIUM

Grimes averages 11.0 PPG vs. Denver over 7 games on only 24.3 MPG. Recent road performances are inconsistent (5 PTS vs. BOS, 17 vs. CLE, 23 vs. MEM), and Denver's league-average defense won't offer the softer matchups he's faced at home in his last 5 games.

reboundsUNDER 3.565%MEDIUM

Grimes averages 2.7 RPG vs. Denver historically and 2.9 RPG on the road overall. His last 5-game rebound average of 4.4 is inflated by home games; on the road in that stretch he pulled 2-3 rebounds per game.

assistsUNDER 3.562%MEDIUM

Season APG is 3.41, but vs. Denver he averages just 1.86 APG. Last 10 games show 2.4 APG. FanDuel's 3.5 line is elevated relative to his Denver history and recent away-game assist totals.

threesUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

Last 5-game 3PM average is only 1.0; last 10 is 1.2. Season average is 1.79. Grimes has shot poorly on the road this season, and Denver's -0.617 three-point suppression (opposing teams shoot fewer threes vs. Denver) suggests limited deep volume.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Last 5-game stocks average is 1.8, but vs. Denver historically and on the road the numbers drop. Season stocks 1.31, away stocks 0.8. Projected line at 1.5 is slightly elevated for a road game vs. a league-average defensive unit.

praUNDER 29.564%MEDIUM

Combined season mean is 20.8 (13.7+3.4+3.7). Recent surge inflates last 5 to 30.2, but that's driven by home games. Denver matchup is historically difficult—7-game average vs. DEN is 11.0+1.86+2.71=15.6. Road performance generally suppresses totals relative to season average.

prUNDER 24.565%MEDIUM

Points+Rebounds combined: season 17.4, last 5 27.0. vs. Denver: 11.0+2.71=13.71. Away splits: 12.9+2.9=15.8. Line at 24.5 is aggressive given Denver history and road context; targeting 16-18 range is more realistic.

paUNDER 24.563%MEDIUM

Points+Assists: season 17.1, last 5 25.8. vs. Denver: 11.0+1.86=12.86. Away: 12.9+3.5=16.4. Line at 24.5 is above both Denver history and away baseline; expect closer to 17-19 range.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS