Collin Gillespie▼

PHX · PG

PPG

13.1

RPG

4.2

APG

4.7

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.5

13.1

8.6

RPG+1.2

4.2

5.4

APG-0.5

4.7

4.2

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 5.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

5.5

BOS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs BOS: 15 pts

LAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAL: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 5 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 0 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 3 pts

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL+BLK

STABLE 1.5

60%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

P+A

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

P+R

OVER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

R+A

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

10.6

RPG

4.1

4.7

APG

4.2

6.3

vs MIN (H2H)5 games

PPG

12.2

RPG

3.8

APG

3.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Russell Westbrook	4	14	56%	+8.0%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	12	30%	-22.0%	medium
Cason Wallace	4	10	100%	+58.0%	medium
Julian Champagnie	4	10	30%

Gillespie in Sharp Decline — Proceed with Caution vs. Minnesota

Collin Gillespie's scoring has collapsed over the last 5 games, averaging just 8.6 PPG (down from 13.1 season average) on poor shooting. The last two games vs. BOS and TOR saw him score just 3 and 0 points respectively, signaling a concerning offensive drought. On the road (where PHX plays tonight), Gillespie historically scores just 10.6 PPG compared to 13.1 at home, and Minnesota's defense allows just 51.4% of the scoring suppression rate. Phoenix is on a back-to-back, which further depresses his prop metrics (11.33 PPG B2B average). Defensively, Donte DiVincenzo and Mike Conley have held Gillespie to 6 and 3 points respectively in limited matchup history.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↓ from 13.1)

APG

4.2(→ from 4.7)

3PM

2.0(↓ from 3.0)

RPG

5.4(↑ from 4.2)

Key Matchup

Donte DiVincenzo has held Gillespie to 6 PPG on 33% FG in prior matchups (10.1 minutes), while Mike Conley limited him to just 3 PPG on 17% FG (9.4 minutes). Minnesota's defense rates 115.09 in efficiency with slight three-point suppression (0.089), targeting Gillespie's perimeter game when he does get hot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Collin Gillespie▼	Points	5.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	40%	12	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Assists	9.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	7	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	STABLE	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	1	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	40%	19	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	P+R	10.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	16	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	R+A	14.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	11	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5OVER19%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+13.1% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.330▼

AST3.5UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

3PA8UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PRA17.5UNDER9%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

3PM2.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER42%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Collin Gillespie

Points UNDER 5.5MEDIUM

While the 5.5 line from DraftKings appears to be an outlier (possibly a prop mix-up), Gillespie's last two games of 3 and 0 points combined with his road scoring average of 10.6 (depressed by recency) and back-to-back status creates downside vulnerability. Recent defensive pressure from DiVincenzo and Conley, combined with offensive slump, makes UNDER a calculated lean. However, season-to-date averages suggest some bounce-back risk, warranting MEDIUM rather than HIGH confidence.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donte DiVincenzo	3	12	3	20%	30%
Mike Conley	2	5	3	20%	30%
Bones Hyland	2	5	2	50%	50%
Jaden McDaniels	3	3	0	0%	0%
Ayo Dosunmu	1	3	4	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 5.572%HIGH

Gillespie is in freefall, averaging 8.6 PPG over last 5 games with 3 and 0 points in his last two outings. Road splits show 10.6 PPG away from home, and back-to-back status drops him to 11.33 PPG. The 5.5 line appears artificially low, but his recent form and opponent defense (DiVincenzo/Conley) warrant UNDER.

reboundsOVER 4.568%MEDIUM

Gillespie has rebounded well recently, averaging 5.4 RPG over last 5 games and 4.6 over last 10. Away splits show 4.7 RPG, nearly matching the line. Even in reduced offensive roles, he has found the glass.

assistsUNDER 9.565%MEDIUM

Season average is 4.7 APG with last 5 at 4.2. The 9.5 line appears to be a data anomaly or for a different player. Gillespie's assist volume does not justify this projection; UNDER is strong.

threesUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Last 5 games show 2.0 3PM average, down from season 3.0. Recent shooting struggles (1 of 8 vs BOS, 0 of 3 vs TOR) indicate cold spell. Minnesota allows slight three-point suppression (0.089), making UNDER reasonable.

stocksSTABLE 1.560%MEDIUM

Season stocks average 1.51 with last 5 at 1.4. Steals line at 1.5 available separately; combined stocks closely align with season mean. Neutral positioning.

stealsOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

Away splits show 1.6 SPG, slightly above the 1.5 line. Last 5 games at 1.2, but variance is high (STD 1.01 season-wide). Away performance and defensive matchup roles support slight OVER lean.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

Season BPG is only 0.2, well below 0.5. Last 5 at 0.2, last 10 at 0.2. Gillespie is not a shot-blocker; UNDER is a heavy lock.

paUNDER 15.570%HIGH

Points + Assists combined: season is 13.1 + 4.7 = 17.8, but recent decline (8.6 + 4.2 = 12.8 L5) brings expected output well below 15.5. Back-to-back and road context further support UNDER.

prOVER 10.564%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds: last 5 average 8.6 + 5.4 = 14.0. Even with recent point decline, rebound stability keeps combo viable. Line at 10.5 appears conservative given recent rebounding uptick.

raUNDER 14.563%MEDIUM

Rebounds + Assists combined: last 5 is 5.4 + 4.2 = 9.6. Season average 4.2 + 4.7 = 8.9. The 14.5 line appears inflated; likely a data source discrepancy. UNDER is strong.

timelineUNDER 5.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Gillespie in Sharp Decline — Proceed with Caution vs. Minnesota

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 5.5 PTS