Donte DiVincenzo▲

MIN · PG

PPG

12.5

RPG

4.5

APG

4.1

L5 PPG

7.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.1

12.5

7.4

RPG+0.7

4.5

5.2

APG-2.1

4.1

2.0

SPG-0.6

1.4

0.8

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

6.5

POR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs POR: 19 pts

LAC

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAC: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DEN: 17 pts

MEM

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MEM: 7 pts

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 16 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 6 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 16 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

72%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

PRA

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

P+A

OVER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

R+A

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.4

13.8

RPG

4.2

4.1

APG

4.4

3.3

vs PHX (H2H)14 games

PPG

10.3

RPG

2.7

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tim Hardaway Jr.	4	21	100%	+37.2%	medium
Kris Dunn	4	17	19%	-28.1%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	16	80%	+39.4%	low
Collin Gillespie	3	14	65%

DiVincenzo's Shooting Slump at Home Signals UNDER Play on Points

Donte DiVincenzo has been struggling at home this season, averaging just 7.4 PPG in 10 home games compared to 13.8 PPG on the road, despite identical minutes (~28-30 per game). Over his last 5 games, he's averaged only 7.4 PPG with a concerning 41.9% TS%, though he did score 16 PPG against OKC recently. Against Phoenix specifically, DiVincenzo has posted modest numbers (10.3 PPG across 14 career meetings), and the Suns' defense allows -0.93 PPG suppression. The FanDuel line of 6.5 PPG appears inflated relative to his home performance profile.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.4(↓ from 12.5)

Home PPG

7.4(→ from 7.4)

Away PPG

13.8(→ from 13.8)

APG

2.0(↓ from 4.1)

3P Made

1.6(↓ from 3.0)

Key Matchup

Devin Booker and Grayson Allen will draw primary defensive responsibility. Booker has allowed 41 points on 53.8% FG in 15.6 minutes of sample (inflate outlier), but Allen held opposing guards to just 7 points on 50% FG in 10.6 minutes. Phoenix's overall defensive rating (111.29) with -0.93 scoring suppression is permissive, but this figures into the elevated 6.5-point line.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	20%	0	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	80%	1	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	PRA	14.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	30%	4	✓
Donte DiVincenzo▼	P+A	12.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Donte DiVincenzo▼	R+A	7.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	30%	4	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

PRA17.5UNDER32%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+A14OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB3.5UNDER37%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 7x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER68%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 8x6/2030%+12.0% edge▼

3PA7UNDER32%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER24%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)6/2030%▼

3PM2.5UNDER37%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 8x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Donte DiVincenzo

Points UNDER 6.5MEDIUM

DiVincenzo's home/away split is one of the starkest on the Timberwolves: 7.4 PPG at home vs 13.8 on the road. His last 5-game average of 7.4 PPG closely mirrors his home season baseline. While 6.5 is a low threshold, his recent struggles (0 PPG vs ORL, 6 PPG vs LAC) and shooting inconsistency at Target Center make the under more likely than the line implies. FanDuel's slightly elevated -114 odds suggest sharp money backing the over; contrarian under has value.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Collin Gillespie	3	14	13	50%	65%
Royce O'Neale	3	5	11	80%	110%
Jordan Goodwin	3	3	6	75%	75%
Jalen Green	1	2	0	0%	0%
Ryan Dunn	3	2	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 6.572%HIGH

DiVincenzo averages only 7.4 PPG at home vs 13.8 away this season. Recent form shows 7.4 PPG in last 5 games. At home against a competent defensive opponent, expect him to stay under this inflated 6.5 line most of the time.

assistsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 2.0 APG (down from 4.1 season average). vs Phoenix all-time: 2.6 APG. Recent 10-game window shows 3.1 APG, but home splits show 4.4 APG—inconsistency suggests caution. FanDuel's -182 over indicates sharp money on the under.

reboundsOVER 2.570%HIGH

DiVincenzo averages 4.5 RPG season-wide and 4.2 RPG last 10 games. Last 5 shows 5.2 RPG rebound bump. Home splits 4.2 RPG. Line of 2.5 is well below season average; easy over at these odds.

threesUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 1.6 3P made. Season 3.0 per game, but recent 10-game mean 2.7. Home 3P made only 1.9 per game. Vs Phoenix career: shooting efficiency unknown but volume likely lower. FanDuel shows -136 under odds, reflecting sharp consensus.

stealsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

Last 5: 0.8 STL. Season 1.4 SPG. vs Phoenix all-time: no steals data provided. Even line is balanced, but recent downtrend from 1.3 (last 10) to 0.8 (last 5) suggests slight under lean.

praUNDER 14.570%HIGH

Last 5 PRA projection: 7.4 + 2.0 + 5.2 = 14.6 (barely above). Home environment historically suppresses scoring (7.4 PPG home vs 13.8 away). Consensus shows -110 over / -120 under; slight under value given home shooting struggles.

paOVER 12.568%MEDIUM

Last 5: 7.4 PPG + 2.0 APG = 9.4 PA. Season: 12.5 + 4.1 = 16.6 PA. Home comps: 7.4 + 4.4 = 11.8. Line of 12.5 sits between home/recent, but assists volatility (4.4 home vs 2.0 last 5) creates variance. Slight over lean on season baseline.

raOVER 7.571%HIGH

Last 5 + 10 both show strong rebound performance (5.2 L5, 4.2 L10). Last 5 RA: 5.2 REB + 2.0 AST = 7.2. Season RA: 4.5 + 4.1 = 8.6. Line sits right at recent average; slight over given rebound consistency above 4.0 per game.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS