Jalen Green▲

PHX · SF

PPG

17.6

RPG

3.5

APG

2.5

L5 PPG

28.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+10.4

17.6

28.0

RPG+1.1

3.5

4.6

APG+0.7

2.5

3.2

SPG0.0

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

BOS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs BOS: 13 pts

LAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAL: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 20 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 25 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 36 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 34 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 21 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

65%

3PM

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

64%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.2

55%

PRA

UNDER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

P+A

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+R

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

R+A

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.6

20.0

RPG

3.6

3.3

APG

2.5

2.4

vs MIN (H2H)14 games

PPG

19.4

RPG

3.4

APG

4.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Immanuel Quickley	2	8	29%	-13.9%	low
Brandon Miller	2	7	20%	-22.5%	low
Ousmane Dieng	2	6	33%	-9.2%	low
Sam Hauser	2	6	0%

Green's Hot Streak Faces Timberwolves' Elite Defense in Back-to-Back

Jalen Green is in explosive form, averaging 28.0 PPG over his last 5 games with 33.0 MPG, up sharply from his 17.6 season average. However, he's playing on a back-to-back (Phoenix is 1 day removed from their last game), which typically pressures volume and performance. Minnesota's defense rates well (115.09 DRTG, -5.1% scoring suppression), and Jaden McDaniels—who logs 40.3 minutes—has allowed just 0.464 FG% to opponents. Green's road splits are favorable (20.0 PPG away vs 15.6 at home), but the combination of fatigue, elite defense, and a modest 18.5 FanDuel line suggests a regression from his recent pace.

Stat Trends

PPG

28.0(↑ from 17.6)

Assists

3.2(↑ from 2.5)

3PM

3.8(↑ from 2.4)

Rebounds

4.6(↑ from 3.5)

Key Matchup

Jaden McDaniels will likely defend Green for the majority of his 40.3 minutes. McDaniels has held opponents to 0.464 FG%, well below league average, creating a significant defensive challenge. Minnesota's overall defense (115.09 DRTG, -5.1% scoring suppression) is elite and will test Green's efficiency on a B2B.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Green▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	9	✓
Jalen Green▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✗
Jalen Green▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	5	✓
Jalen Green▼	3PM	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	2	✗
Jalen Green▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Jalen Green▼	STL+BLK	1.2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	20%	3	✓
Jalen Green▼	PRA	27.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	15	✓
Jalen Green▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✓
Jalen Green▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	10	✓
Jalen Green▼	R+A	8.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	6	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5OVER10%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+18.5% edge▼

PRA25.5OVER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+15.0% edge▼

P+R25OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A24.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM2.5UNDER17%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA7UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

REB4.5UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER18%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER21%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

FTM2UNDER42%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

FTA2UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Green

Points UNDER 18.5MEDIUM

Green's recent 28.0 PPG (last 5) is an outlier driven by high-volume games against weaker defenses. The FanDuel 18.5 line reflects regression expectations. Back-to-back fatigue, Jaden McDaniels' elite defense (0.464 FG% allowed), and Minnesota's -5.1% scoring suppression converge to pressure production. Green's season average of 17.6 PPG and modest road efficiency gains (20.0 away vs 15.6 home) suggest 16–18 PPG is the realistic range tonight.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ayo Dosunmu	1	3	2	50%	50%
Donte DiVincenzo	1	3	0	0%	0%
Julius Randle	1	1	5	100%	125%
Jaden McDaniels	1	1	3	50%	75%
Kyle Anderson	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 18.568%MEDIUM

Green's 28.0 PPG last 5 is unsustainable given back-to-back fatigue and Minnesota's -5.1% scoring suppression. Jaden McDaniels (40.3 min) allows only 0.464 FG%. Season average 17.6 PPG and FanDuel's 18.5 line suggests modest volume expected.

reboundsOVER 3.562%MEDIUM

Green's last 5 average 4.6 RPG and last 10 average 4.2 RPG with 30.9 MPG. At 3.5, he's been consistently above this line. B2B context doesn't severely impact rebounding, and he plays away (no home disadvantage).

assistsUNDER 5.565%MEDIUM

Despite last 5 average of 3.2 APG and vs-opponent history of 4.2 APG, the 5.5 line is significantly elevated. Season mean is 2.45 APG with std 1.4, indicating high variance. Back-to-back and defensive pressure likely limit playmaking opportunities.

threesOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

Green's last 5 average 3.8 3PM and last 10 average 2.7 3PM. Season 3-point percentage is 30.1%, and he's shooting more volume (3.8 attempts last 5). Against Minnesota's +8.9% three-point suppression, slight headwind, but volume supports the over.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

Green's season steals average 1.2 SPG with last 5 at 1.2 SPG and away games at 1.3 SPG. At 0.5, this is easily surpassed. High variance (std 1.51), but upside is strong.

stocksOVER 1.255%MEDIUM

Stocks (STL+BLK) season mean 1.25 with recent mean 1.3. Away splits favor 1.4 stocks. Line at 1.2 is near season baseline; slight upside given away-game performance history.

praUNDER 27.566%MEDIUM

PRA combines points (18.5 FD line), assists (5.5 FD line), and rebounds (3.5 DK line). 27.5 total assumes strong performance across all three. Back-to-back fatigue and Minnesota defense suggest Green underperforms recent pace; realistic PRA closer to 25–26.

paUNDER 23.563%MEDIUM

Points + Assists at 23.5 requires 18.5 PPG + 5.0 APG equivalent production. Last 5 shows 28.0 PPG but only 3.2 APG; assists have been inconsistent. Back-to-back context reduces likelihood of elite two-way performance.

prUNDER 21.564%MEDIUM

Points + Rebounds at 21.5. With 18.5 points line and 3.5 rebounds, math suggests 22.0 fair value. However, back-to-back fatigue pressures both categories slightly; Green more likely lands 20–21 range.

raOVER 8.560%MEDIUM

Rebounds + Assists at 8.5. Green's last 5 average 4.6 RPG + 3.2 APG = 7.8 combined. Last 10 average 4.2 RPG + 2.5 APG = 6.7. Line at 8.5 is optimistic; realistic outcome 7.5–8.0, but upside potential given recent form.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS