Naz Reid▼

MIN · C

PPG

13.7

RPG

6.2

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

12.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.3

13.7

12.4

RPG-1.4

6.2

4.8

APG-1.1

2.3

1.2

SPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

BPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

POR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs POR: 8 pts

LAC

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAC: 11 pts

DEN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DEN: 11 pts

MEM

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MEM: 3 pts

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 13 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 13 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 18 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 6 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5STAKE

70%

REB

UNDER 6.5STAKE

65%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

68%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

60%

P+R

UNDER 19.5STAKE

68%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

67%

R+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.1

13.5

RPG

6.6

5.7

APG

2.1

1.9

vs PHX (H2H)16 games

PPG

9.9

RPG

5.1

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
P.J. Washington	3	13	9%	-35.8%	medium
Nikola Jović	2	12	20%	-24.9%	low
Precious Achiuwa	4	12	86%	+40.8%	medium
Nicolas Batum	4	11	100%

Reid Struggles in Recent Form Against Suns Defense; Points UNDER Preferred

Naz Reid is trending downward over the last 10 games (10.7 PPG, 25.4 MPG) compared to season average (13.7 PPG), and his last 5 games show further decline at 12.4 PPG with reduced efficiency. Against Phoenix in 16 career matchups, Reid has averaged just 9.9 PPG on 21.5 MPG—well below his season norm. The Suns' defense allows scoring but Phoenix's pace (100) and structure could limit Reid's opportunities in a game where Minnesota has 2 days rest while the Suns are on a back-to-back.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.4(↓ from 13.7)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 6.2)

APG

1.2(↓ from 2.3)

BPG

0.6(↓ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Royce O'Neale has been the primary Suns defender against Reid, holding him to 4 points on 11.1 FG% across 15 minutes of matchup time. This defensive pairing, combined with Phoenix's middling defensive rating (111.29) but solid three-point suppression (-1.498), should limit Reid's offensive opportunities—particularly his 3-point attempts, which have declined sharply to 0.8 per game in the last 5.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Naz Reid▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	70%	11	✓
Naz Reid▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✓
Naz Reid▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	5	✗
Naz Reid▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
Naz Reid▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✓
Naz Reid▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	14	✓
Naz Reid▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	16	✗
Naz Reid▼	R+A	9.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER26%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%+30.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB5.5OVER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x13/2065%+8.5% edge▼

3PA4.5UNDER43%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

FTA2UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x5/2025%▼

PRA19UNDER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER55%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+23.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+A13UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

BLK1UNDER19%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

AST1UNDER32%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Naz Reid

Points UNDER 12.5MEDIUM

Reid is averaging 10.7 PPG over the last 10 games with a -3 PPG decline in the last 5. Historically vs Phoenix, he averages only 9.9 PPG on just 21.5 MPG—well below his season norm. While the 12.5 line is not dramatically high, recent form, opponent history, and the Suns' defensive structure support the under at -137 odds.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ryan Dunn	3	7	2	25%	25%
Mark Williams	2	3	7	75%	75%
Royce O'Neale	3	3	3	50%	75%
Oso Ighodaro	3	3	6	60%	60%
Jordan Goodwin	3	3	4	40%	40%

pointsUNDER 12.570%HIGH

Reid has averaged 10.7 PPG over last 10 games and just 9.9 PPG vs Phoenix historically. Recent downward trend and limited MPG (21.5 vs Suns) suggest underperformance vs this line.

reboundsUNDER 6.565%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 4.8 RPG; last 10: 5.2 RPG. Career vs Phoenix: 5.1 RPG on 21.5 MPG. Current form and opponent history point to modest rebound totals.

assistsUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 1.2 APG; last 10: 1.2 APG; career vs Phoenix: 1.625 APG. Significant decline from season mean (2.27) suggests under is favored.

blocksOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Season average 0.9 BPG and last 20 games at 1.1 BPG provide modest upside vs the 0.5 line. Low variance play with reasonable upside.

stealsUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 0.6 SPG; last 10: 0.8 SPG; season: 1.0 SPG. Recent decline and low minutes vs Phoenix (21.5) suggest marginal steal probability.

prUNDER 19.568%MEDIUM

Combining recent PPG (10.7-12.4) and RPG (4.8-5.2) totals yields approximately 15-18 range. Historical Phoenix performance supports under on this combo.

paUNDER 15.567%MEDIUM

Recent PPG + APG averages (10.7-12.4 + 1.2) fall in 11.9-13.6 range, well short of 15.5. Declining assist trend is primary driver.

raUNDER 9.566%MEDIUM

Recent RPG (4.8-5.2) + APG (1.2) totals approximately 6.0-6.4, undershooting the 9.5 line significantly.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS