Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić | 3 | 9 | 73% | +16.3% | medium |
| James Harden | 2 | 8 | 67% | +21.5% | low |
| LeBron James | 4 | 7 | 67% | +21.5% | medium |
| Stephen Curry | 3 | 7 | 15% |
Ryan Dunn is mired in a significant downturn, averaging just 3.4 PPG over his last 5 games on 13.8 MPG—well below his season 5.7 PPG on 19.4 minutes. Tonight he travels to Minnesota on a back-to-back, a context where his season scoring average plummets to 3.25 PPG. The Timberwolves' defense rates 115.09 with slight scoring suppression (-0.051), and Dunn's away splits reveal 3.0 PPG on just 14.0 MPG (vs. 4.7 PPG at home on 18.5 minutes). With Phoenix playing the second night of a back-to-back, expect continued minute restriction and limited scoring opportunity.
Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels will likely handle perimeter defense. Edwards has allowed 23 PPG in limited sample on 60% FG, but Dunn's 4.5 PPG vs. Minnesota lifetime average and projected low minutes (13–15) minimize exposure. Minnesota's 115.09 DEF rating is middle-of-pack, not elite, but Dunn's road form (3.0 PPG) is the primary concern.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Dunn▼ | Points | 4.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 7 | ✗ |
Ryan Dunn▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 4 | ✓ |
Ryan Dunn▼ | Assists | 0.5 | UNDER | 65%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Ryan Dunn▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
Ryan Dunn▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | — | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
Ryan Dunn▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
Ryan Dunn▼ | P+R | 7.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 11 | ✗ |
Ryan Dunn▼ | P+A | 5.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 8 | ✗ |
Dunn has scored 3.4 PPG over last 5 games and averages 3.0 PPG on the road. Playing the second night of a back-to-back for Phoenix typically reduces rotation wings' minutes; his season B2B scoring average is just 3.25 PPG. The combination of declining form, road splits, and back-to-back context strongly favors the under at 4.5.
| medium |
| Lauri Markkanen | 2 | 6 | 56% | -7.7% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 3 | 5 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Anthony Edwards | 2 | 5 | 12 | 63% | 69% |
| Jaden McDaniels | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Bones Hyland | 2 | 2 | 11 | 80% | 100% |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
Last 5 games average 3.4 PPG on 13.8 MPG; on road he averages 3.0 PPG, and on back-to-backs drops to 3.25 PPG season average. This game features all three headwinds.
Last 5 games: 3.0 RPG, last 10: 3.9 RPG. Season mean 4.05 with std 2.56 shows volatility, but recent consistency supports clearing 2.5 despite road context.
Last 5 APG: 0.6, last 10: 0.8. Season away split is 0.4 APG; back-to-back average 1.13 APG is marginally helpful but volume concerns dominate.
Last 5 SPG: 1.0, last 10: 0.7, last 20: 0.7. Dunn has reliable steal upside; Timberwolves show slight suppression but he's a consistent defender.
Career low vol: season 0.4 BPG, last 5: 0.2 BPG, last 10: 0.2 BPG. Even at home 0.3 BPG average, this line is inflated for a wing with minimal shot-blocking.
Last 5 stocks: 1.2, last 10: 0.9, season 1.24. Minutes likely 13–15 on B2B road game limits frequency; projected line from season average + recent decline favors under.
Points expected low (under 4.5) + rebounds solid around 3 = combined ~7. Recent point decline outweighs rebound stability on road B2B.
Last 5 PPG 3.4 + APG 0.6 = 4.0 average. Season away split 3.0 + 0.4 = 3.4. Back-to-back and road context depress both; well under 5.5.