De'Aaron Fox▼

SAS · PG

PPG

18.8

RPG

3.7

APG

6.3

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.6

18.8

21.4

RPG-0.3

3.7

3.4

APG+1.3

6.3

7.6

SPG-0.4

1.2

0.8

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

BKN

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs BKN: 14 pts

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 7 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 29 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 20 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 25 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 27 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 18 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

75%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

70%

P+A

OVER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

P+R

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

R+A

OVER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

PRA

OVER 27.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.5

14.7

RPG

3.2

2.9

APG

7.5

6.0

vs SAC (H2H)3 games

PPG

20.7

RPG

2.7

APG

8.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Williams	4	18	55%	-2.9%	medium
Vince Williams Jr.	3	14	50%	-10.9%	medium
Collin Gillespie	3	13	61%	-4.0%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	12	67%

Fox Faces Tough B2B Spot Against Sacramento; Points Line Favors Under

De'Aaron Fox enters a back-to-back on the road against Sacramento after just one day of rest, a context in which he averages 17.18 PPG—below his season 18.84 average. His recent trend shows decline (20.7 PPG last 5 games down to 17.3 over last 20), and he scores significantly better at home (19.5 PPG) than away (14.7 PPG). Sacramento's defense ranks poorly (120.57 rating) but Fox has limited history versus them. The 17.5 points line presents solid value on the under given fatigue factors and road splits.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↓ from 18.8)

APG

7.6(→ from 6.3)

RPG

3.4(↓ from 3.7)

3PM

1.6(→ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Sacramento's defense rates 120.57 (below league average), suggesting opportunity. However, Fox has limited recent history versus Sacramento (3 games, 20.7 PPG average). Russell Westbrook has limited Fox to 3 points on 14% shooting across 8.5 minutes of recent matchups, though sample size is small.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Aaron Fox▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	40%	15	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	75%HIGH	1/2	70%	1	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	40%	1	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	P+A	24.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	21	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	20	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	R+A	9.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	11	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	PRA	27.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	26	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25UNDER8%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS14.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST6UNDER23%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER38%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

FTM1UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

REB3UNDER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER43%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

De'Aaron Fox

Assists OVER 6.5MEDIUM

Fox's assist metrics are strong and consistent: 7.6 APG last 5, 6.9 APG last 10, and 7.5 APG at home. Despite B2B fatigue, his playmaking has remained reliable. Sacramento's weak defense (120.57 rating) provides easy scoring opportunities that naturally generate assists, making the over attractive at -106 (betrivers).

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Russell Westbrook	3	11	5	25%	31%
Malik Monk	2	4	5	50%	63%
Dennis Schröder	1	4	3	50%	75%
Nique Clifford	3	3	0	0%	0%
DeMar DeRozan	3	2	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 17.572%HIGH

Fox is on a back-to-back with minimal rest (1 day) and averages only 17.18 PPG in B2B situations. His away-game average of 14.7 PPG significantly lags his home average of 19.5 PPG, and he's shown downward trend over last 20 games (17.3 PPG).

assistsOVER 6.568%MEDIUM

Fox's last 5-game average (7.6 APG) and last 10-game average (6.9 APG) both exceed the 6.5 line. His season home assist rate is 7.5 APG, and he's shown consistent playmaking across recent games (9, 10, 9, 9 assists in last 4).

reboundsUNDER 3.565%MEDIUM

Fox's recent metrics show 3.4 RPG over last 5 and 3.3 RPG over last 10, both just below the line. His season average is 3.71 RPG with a standard deviation of 1.86, indicating volatility. Away-game splits (4.13 RPG) are actually stronger, but overall trend favors under.

threesOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

Fox's season 3-point average is 1.83 3PM with last 5 at 1.6. Though slightly below line, his recent volume (10, 4, 4, 8 attempts in last 4 games) shows consistent shooting, and he averages 1.86 3PM at home.

stealsOVER 0.575%HIGH

Fox's season steals average is 1.2 SPG, well above 0.5. Recent 5-game average is 0.8 SPG, and he has strong steals volume in recent games (2, 1, 1, 2, 0 in last 5). Heavy moneyline pressure toward the over (-245) reflects this.

stocksOVER 1.570%HIGH

Fox's season stocks average (STL+BLK) is 1.5 exactly, with recent 5-game and 10-game means at 1.4 STL+BLK. His defensive activity has been steady, and he's matched or exceeded 1.5 stocks in multiple recent games.

paOVER 24.568%MEDIUM

Fox's season P+A average is roughly 25.1 (18.84 PPG + 6.33 APG). Recent 5-game P+A is 29.0, and he's shown consistent 24+ P+A totals in recent outings (24, 21, 34, 29, 25). Home/away splits favor this combo.

prUNDER 20.566%MEDIUM

Fox's season P+R average is approximately 22.5 (18.84 PPG + 3.71 RPG), but his recent 20-game average suggests P+R closer to 20.3. Back-to-back and away splits suppress both scoring and rebounding components.

raOVER 9.564%MEDIUM

Fox's season R+A is approximately 10.0 (3.71 RPG + 6.33 APG). Recent 5-game mean is 11.0, and he's consistently in double figures for this combo (8, 10, 12, 13, 12 in recent games). Reliable production in this category.

praOVER 27.570%HIGH

Fox's season PRA is approximately 28.8 (18.84 + 6.33 + 3.71). His last 5-game PRA is 32.4, and he's posted 26+, 29+, 39+, 37+, 30+ PRA over recent contests. Even with B2B fatigue, this line offers value on the over.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS