DeMar DeRozan▲

SAC · SF

PPG

18.8

RPG

3.0

APG

4.0

L5 PPG

26.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.0

18.8

26.8

RPG-0.4

3.0

2.6

APG+1.4

4.0

5.4

SPG+0.5

1.1

1.6

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

MEM

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs MEM: 19 pts

HOU

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs HOU: 15 pts

DAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs DAL: 7 pts

LAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAL: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHX: 17 pts

NOP

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs NOP: 15 pts

IND

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs IND: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CHA: 39 pts

LAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAC: 27 pts

UTA

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs UTA: 41 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

75%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

PRA

OVER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

P+A

OVER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

P+R

OVER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

R+A

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

STL

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.4

17.1

RPG

3.1

1.9

APG

4.0

4.8

vs SAS (H2H)13 games

PPG

25.1

RPG

4.1

APG

5.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	23	32%	-21.1%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	20	59%	+4.8%	medium
Jaylen Wells	4	15	96%	+27.2%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	15	33%

DeRozan's Hot Streak Continues at Home vs. Vulnerable Spurs Defense

DeRozan is on fire in his last 5 games, averaging 26.8 PPG with elevated playmaking (5.4 APG), and faces a Spurs team allowing 111.88 defensive rating. Critically, he's dominated San Antonio historically, averaging 25.1 PPG across 13 career meetings with strong volume (36.2 MPG). The recent game log shows explosive performances at home (41 pts vs UTA, 39 pts vs CHA), and with Sacramento playing at home after 2 days rest vs. a Spurs team on a back-to-back, conditions favor continuation of this elite production.

Stat Trends

PPG

26.8(↑ from 18.8)

APG

5.4(↑ from 4.0)

vs. SAS (Career)

25.1(→ from 25.1)

Key Matchup

Julian Champagnie has limited availability (12.0 minutes) and allowed only 0.75 PPG per minute (9 pts in 12 min) when defending DeRozan. Devin Vassell (6.2 min assignment) allowed 2.74 PPG per minute (17 pts in 6.2 min), suggesting DeRozan can exploit whichever primary defender takes on the assignment. Spurs' overall defensive rating of 111.88 is well above league standard for vulnerability.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
DeMar DeRozan▼	Points	19.5	OVER	78%HIGH	2/2	30%	2	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	75%HIGH	1/2	70%	1	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	PRA	26.5	OVER	76%HIGH	2/2	30%	4	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	30%	3	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	P+R	22.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	30%	3	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	R+A	6.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	60%	2	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	72%HIGH	—	70%	0	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA21OVER8%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS15.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

REB2OVER18%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A23UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

AST5OVER1%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

FTM4.5UNDER19%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (5/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

FTA5UNDER12%gbtAvoid (4/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

DeMar DeRozan

Points OVER 19.5HIGH

DeRozan's last 5 games average 26.8 PPG with dominant home performances (41 vs UTA, 39 vs CHA). Career vs. San Antonio: 25.1 PPG. The Spurs are on a back-to-back with a permissive 111.88 defensive rating. DeMar at home on full rest with elite recent form and favorable defensive matchup creates a high-confidence over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Harrison Barnes	3	10	17	86%	107%
Keldon Johnson	3	5	7	50%	58%
Julian Champagnie	3	4	6	67%	100%
Jeremy Sochan	1	4	3	100%	150%
De'Aaron Fox	3	4	11	50%	69%

pointsOVER 19.578%HIGH

Last 5 games: 26.8 PPG. Last 10: 20.1 PPG. Home splits: 19.4 PPG over 9 games. Career vs. SAS: 25.1 PPG. Recent game log shows 41, 27, 39 points in last 3 games. Spurs defense (111.88 rating) is permissive.

assistsOVER 3.575%HIGH

Last 5 games: 5.4 APG. Last 10: 5.2 APG. Season mean: 4.03 APG. Career vs. SAS: 5.5 APG on 36.2 MPG. Elevated playmaking trend is clear and consistent.

reboundsUNDER 2.568%MEDIUM

Season mean: 3.01 RPG. Last 5: 2.6 RPG. Last 10: 2.4 RPG. Recent game log shows volatility (0, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2) with lower baseline. Home splits: 3.1 RPG, but trend favors lower end.

praOVER 26.576%HIGH

Last 5 composite: 26.8 PPG + 5.4 APG + 2.6 RPG = 34.8. Last 10: 20.1 + 5.2 + 2.4 = 27.7. Career vs. SAS: 25.1 + 5.5 + 4.1 = 34.7. Strong recent form and matchup history support over.

paOVER 23.574%HIGH

Last 5: 26.8 PPG + 5.4 APG = 32.2. Last 10: 20.1 + 5.2 = 25.3. Career vs. SAS: 25.1 + 5.5 = 30.6. Hot streak and high-volume playmaking support the line.

prOVER 22.572%HIGH

Last 5: 26.8 PPG + 2.6 RPG = 29.4. Last 10: 20.1 + 2.4 = 22.5. Career vs. SAS: 25.1 + 4.1 = 29.2. Recent scoring surge drives this combo over the line.

raOVER 6.570%HIGH

Last 5: 5.4 APG + 2.6 RPG = 8.0. Last 10: 5.2 + 2.4 = 7.6. Career vs. SAS: 5.5 + 4.1 = 9.6. Consistent over the projected line based on recent form.

stealsOVER 0.572%HIGH

Last 5 games: 1.6 SPG. Last 10: 1.1 SPG. Season mean: 1.1 SPG. Recent games show elevated activity (3 steals vs UTA, 2 vs CHA, 2 vs MEM). Defensive intensity is trending up.

stocksOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 games: 2.2 stocks (1.6 STL + 0.6 BLK). Last 10: 1.7 stocks (1.1 STL + 0.6 BLK). Recent upswing in steals activity supports the over on combined defensive stats.

timelineOVER 19.5 PTS