Harrison Barnes▲

SAS · PF

PPG

10.3

RPG

3.0

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

7.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.1

10.3

7.2

RPG-0.4

3.0

2.6

APG-0.8

2.0

1.2

SPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

GSW

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs GSW: 10 pts

PHX

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs PHX: 8 pts

SAC

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs SAC: 14 pts

DET

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs DET: 3 pts

TOR

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs TOR: 8 pts

BKN

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs BKN: 3 pts

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 3 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 20 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 2 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 8 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

65%

AST

UNDER 1.5BETONLINEAG

68%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

70%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

PRA

UNDER 14.5FANDUEL

70%

P+R

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.3

8.3

RPG

3.4

2.1

APG

1.8

vs SAC (H2H)6 games

PPG

11.8

RPG

3.2

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	3	18	48%	-0.0%	medium
Saddiq Bey	4	16	36%	-16.9%	medium
Jaren Jackson Jr.	3	14	38%	-7.0%	medium
Rui Hachimura	3	11	42%

Barnes Struggles Lately Against Strong Kings Defense; Expect Continued Underperformance

Harrison Barnes has cooled significantly over the last 5 games, averaging just 7.2 PPG on 20 MPG after returning to availability. Despite a season-long 10.3 PPG average, his recent trajectory (7.9 over last 10, 8.8 over last 20) shows downward volatility due to reduced minutes and inconsistent scoring efficiency. Sacramento's defense rates 120.57 (above league average) with strong three-point suppression (1.116x), which should limit Barnes' already-declining three-point volume. On the road (where he plays tonight) without rest advantage after a back-to-back, Barnes projects to struggle further against this matchup.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.2(↓ from 10.3)

RPG

2.6(→ from 3.0)

APG

1.2(↓ from 2.0)

3PM

1.2(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Sacramento's defense (120.57 rating) has strong three-point suppression (1.116x) which directly counters Barnes' primary offensive weapon. Key defender DeMar DeRozan allows 25 PPG on 55% FG but that reflects overall scoring allowed; Barnes' recent struggles and reduced role suggest limited offensive opportunities against this scheme.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Harrison Barnes▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	16	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	4	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	PRA	14.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	23	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA11.5UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

PTS8UNDER12%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

3PA4UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A9.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST1UNDER11%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM1.5UNDER29%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA0.5UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R10.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB2OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

Featured Pick

Harrison Barnes

Points UNDER 9.5MEDIUM

FanDuel line is 9.5. Barnes averaged 7.2 PPG last 5 games and 8.3 PPG on the road. Back-to-back situation without rest advantage, Sacramento's elite perimeter defense, and downward trend all support under. Historical head-to-head vs SAC (11.8 PPG) is elevated due to one 14-point game on 2/21; recent form is more predictive.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan	3	7	8	75%	75%
Nique Clifford	3	4	0	0%	0%
Precious Achiuwa	2	3	2	50%	50%
Russell Westbrook	2	3	5	33%	42%
Daeqwon Plowden	2	3	3	33%	50%

pointsUNDER 9.572%HIGH

Barnes averages 7.2 PPG over last 5 games and 8.3 PPG on the road this season. Playing B2B without rest advantage and facing Sacramento's strong perimeter defense, he projects below the 9.5 line.

reboundsUNDER 2.565%MEDIUM

Recent 5-game average of 2.6 RPG is near the line, but away splits (2.79 RPG) and back-to-back penalty (2.42 B2B mean) suggest slight under lean on 2.5.

assistsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 games show only 1.2 APG average. While season mean is 2.03, recent volume and reduced minutes (20 MPG) point to under on 1.5.

threesUNDER 1.570%HIGH

Last 5 games: 1.2 3PM average. Sacramento suppresses threes at 1.116x rate. Recent form and opponent defense align for under on 1.5.

stealsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Season 0.7 SPG with recent 0.6 average. Away games favor steals (0.8 SPG). Low bar at 0.5 makes slight over value.

praUNDER 14.570%HIGH

Combining depressed points (7.2 L5), assists (1.2 L5), and rebounds (2.6 L5), Barnes projects to ~11 PRA on reduced minutes. Under 14.5 is solid.

prUNDER 12.568%MEDIUM

Points+Rebounds L5 average ~9.8. Against strong Sacramento D on the road without rest, project under 12.5.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS