Keldon Johnson▼

SAS · SF

PPG

12.6

RPG

5.6

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

10.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.8

12.6

10.8

RPG-0.8

5.6

4.8

APG-0.2

1.2

1.0

SPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

BKN

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs BKN: 13 pts

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 3 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 12 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 10 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 20 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 5 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 13 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 8 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

75%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

PRA

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

P+R

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

STL+BLK

UNDER 0.9

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.3

9.6

RPG

4.7

APG

0.9

1.2

vs SAC (H2H)17 games

PPG

14.4

RPG

5.8

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	4	14	60%	+7.8%	medium
Julius Randle	3	11	38%	-14.7%	medium
Nikola Jokić	3	10	17%	-35.5%	medium
Al Horford	3	8	50%

Johnson Fades Away: Downtrend Continues Against Tough Sacramento Defense

Keldon Johnson is in a clear statistical decline, averaging just 10.0 PPG over his last 10 games compared to 12.6 for the season. The last 5 games show further erosion at 10.8 PPG on 23.0 MPG. Sacramento's defense (120.57 rating, 1.22 scoring suppression) presents a challenge, though Johnson's historical advantage versus the Kings (14.4 PPG on 27.5 MPG in 17 meetings) offers some floor. Playing on the second night of a back-to-back further limits upside. Keegan Murray has allowed just 18 PPG on 41% FG in matchups, suggesting league-average defensive pressure.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.8(↓ from 12.6)

RPG

4.8(→ from 5.6)

3PM

1.6(→ from 1.2)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Keegan Murray will likely defend Johnson and has held opponents to 18 PPG on 41% FG in similar assignments. Sacramento's overall defensive rating (120.57) and 1.22 scoring suppression represent above-average resistance, particularly challenging for a player currently scoring 10.8 PPG over his last 5 contests.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Keldon Johnson▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	18	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%	1	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	75%HIGH	1/2	80%	1	✓
Keldon Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	PRA	19.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	80%	20	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	19	✗
Keldon Johnson▼	STL+BLK	0.9	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

P+R17UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Keldon Johnson

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

Johnson's rebounding is his most reliable stat tier; he averages 5.0-5.8 RPG across all recent windows and averages 5.76 RPG in 17 career games vs. Sacramento. Even on a back-to-back with reduced scoring, rebounding volume remains steady. The FanDuel line at 4.5 offers slight value given his consistency.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan	3	7	6	50%	50%
Nique Clifford	3	4	6	67%	100%
Daeqwon Plowden	2	2	0	0%	0%
Russell Westbrook	3	2	0	0%	0%
Dennis Schröder	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.568%MEDIUM

Johnson's last 10-game average (10.0 PPG) sits well below this line. Back-to-back scenario on short rest typically suppresses scoring output, and Sacramento's defensive profile provides headwind.

reboundsOVER 4.572%HIGH

Rebound consistency is Johnson's strength; he averages 5.0-5.6 RPG across all recent windows. Over/under dynamics favor the over edge against Sacramento, where he historically grabs 5.8 RPG.

assistsUNDER 1.575%HIGH

Recent assist production (last 10: 0.6 APG, last 5: 1.0 APG) is significantly below 1.5. Even vs. Sacramento historically (2.1 APG), reduced role and B2B fatigue limit playmaking opportunities.

threesUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

Season average of 1.18 3PM sits just under the line. Last 10 games show 1.1 3PM, but last 5 shows uptick to 1.6. Against Sacramento's 1.116 three-point suppression, slight underdog lean given B2B context.

praUNDER 19.570%HIGH

Combining recent PPG (10.8), RPG (4.8), and APG (1.0) yields 16.6 combined. Historical edge vs. Sacramento (14.4 PPG, 2.1 APG, 5.8 RPG = 22.3) is offset by current form, B2B penalty, and defensive matchup.

prUNDER 18.565%MEDIUM

Points + rebounds totaled 15.6 over last 5 games (10.8 + 4.8). Sacramento's 1.22 scoring suppression factor and B2B fatigue make the 18.5 line challenging; rebounds should hit floor but points lag.

stocksUNDER 0.968%MEDIUM

Season average stocks (STL+BLK) of 0.7 sits below projected line. Last 5 games: 0.2 stocks. Last 10: 0.4 stocks. Recent decline in defensive activity suggests under edge despite Sacramento matchup.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS