PG
Killian Hayes▲
SAC · PG
PPG
4.9
RPG
2.3
APG
3.7
L5 PPG
7.8
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG+2.9
4.9
7.8
RPG+1.1
2.3
3.4
APG+0.5
3.7
4.2
SPG+0.1
0.5
0.6
BPG+0.2
0.2
0.4
OVER 8.5 PTS
Last 10 games
1
Current Streak
1
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
8.5
3
HOU
2026-02-25
2026-02-25 vs HOU: 3 pts
5
DAL
2026-02-26
2026-02-26 vs DAL: 5 pts
0
LAL
2026-03-01
2026-03-01 vs LAL: 0 pts
3
PHX
2026-03-03
2026-03-03 vs PHX: 3 pts
4
NOP
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 vs NOP: 4 pts
2
CHI
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs CHI: 2 pts
8
IND
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs IND: 8 pts
11
CHA
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 vs CHA: 11 pts
2
LAC
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs LAC: 2 pts
16
UTA
2026-03-15
2026-03-15 vs UTA: 16 pts
Over 8.5
Under 8.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
OVER 8.5
72%
AST
OVER 3.5
68%
REB
OVER 2.5
60%
3PM
OVER 1
65%
STL+BLK
OVER 0.8
62%
PRA
OVER 15.5
70%
P+A
OVER 12
69%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
8.0
3.6
RPG
2.4
2.8
APG
3.7
4.8
vs SAS (H2H)4 games
PPG
9.5
RPG
2.8
APG
7.5
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | 1 | 6 | 75% | +21.1% | low |
| Jeremiah Fears | 2 | 4 | 38% | -3.9% | low |
| Isaiah Collier | 1 | 4 | 30% | +1.1% | low |
| Ben Saraf | 2 | 4 | 33% |
Hayes Heating Up at Home Against Spurs' Weak Defense
Killian Hayes is on an upward trend, averaging 7.8 PPG and 4.2 APG over his last 5 games with increased minutes (23.0 MPG). Playing at home in Sacramento, where he averages 8.0 PPG and 3.7 APG, Hayes benefits from a favorable home court split. The Spurs rank 27th in defense (111.88 rating) and allow negative scoring suppression (-0.795), creating a soft matchup. With 34.5 MPG in 4 career games vs. San Antonio and a history of producing 9.5 PPG against them, Hayes is positioned for a strong performance.
Stat Trends
PPG
7.8(↑ from 4.9)
APG
4.2(↑ from 3.7)
MPG
23.0(↑ from 17.4)
3PM
1.2(↑ from 0.8)
Key Matchup
San Antonio's defense (111.88 rating, -0.795 scoring suppression) is league-worst at preventing opposing offense. Hayes has logged 34.5 MPG vs. the Spurs historically and averaged 9.5 PPG in those matchups, suggesting this is a favorable individual pairing for a backup guard.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Killian Hayes▼ | Points | 8.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 20% | 7 | ✗ |
Killian Hayes▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 40% | 4 | ✓ |
Killian Hayes▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 50% | 3 | ✓ |
Killian Hayes▼ | 3PM | 1 | OVER | 65%MEDIUM | 10% | 1 | ✗ |
Killian Hayes▼ | STL+BLK | 0.8 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 40% | 1 | ✓ |
Killian Hayes▼ | PRA | 15.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | 30% | 14 | ✗ |
Killian Hayes▼ | P+A | 12 | OVER | 69%MEDIUM | 20% | 11 | ✗ |
pointsOVER 8.572%HIGH
Hayes averages 8.0 PPG at home and 9.5 PPG vs. San Antonio historically. Recent 5-game average of 7.8 PPG combined with home court advantage and Spurs' league-worst defense supports an over.
ML Scout Analysis
3PA3UNDER45%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/1741%Scorecard changed -3.0▼
P+R8UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x7/1741%Scorecard changed -3.0▼
P+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/1747%Scorecard changed -3.0▼
PTS5UNDER25%gbt_pointsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 4x6/1735%Scorecard changed -3.0▼
AST4UNDER4%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)4/1724%Scorecard changed -3.0▼
PRA10UNDER9%gbt_praAvoid (6/20)8/1747%Scorecard changed -3.0▼
R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/1741%Scorecard changed -3.0▼
REB2OVER2%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)8/1747%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼
Featured Pick
Killian Hayes
Points + Assists OVER 12.0MEDIUM
Hayes' last 5-game P+A average is exactly 12.0 (7.8 PPG + 4.2 APG), and his home/Spurs-matchup data suggests he can exceed this. The Spurs allow weak perimeter scoring and don't suppress assists. Playing at home with increased minutes, Hayes is primed to go over this combo line.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.