Stephon Castle—

SAS · SG

PPG

16.7

RPG

5.1

APG

7.0

L5 PPG

21.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.1

16.7

21.8

RPG+2.3

5.1

7.4

APG+0.8

7.0

7.8

SPG-0.8

1.2

0.4

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

OVER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

BKN

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs BKN: 18 pts

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 13 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 30 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 15 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 23 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

65%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

PRA

OVER 30.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

P+A

OVER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

P+R

OVER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.5

14.2

RPG

6.4

4.1

APG

7.4

6.9

vs SAC (H2H)6 games

PPG

13.3

RPG

2.8

APG

3.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	22	59%	-2.0%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	4	21	34%	-15.9%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	20	43%	-9.4%	medium
Cade Cunningham	2	17	30%

Castle Heats Up vs. Sacramento's Porous Defense Despite B2B Fatigue

Stephon Castle is riding a hot streak with 21.8 PPG over his last 5 games while maintaining elite assist production at 7.8 APG. Sacramento's defense rates as one of the league's worst (120.57 rating, 1.22x scoring suppression), creating a favorable matchup for the Spurs' starting guard. Castle is on back-to-back games, which historically suppresses his scoring (14.55 PPG b2b), but his elevated minutes (32.0 MPG last 5) and aggressive shot volume suggest he'll still produce above season average. De'Aaron Fox will likely draw primary assignment and has allowed 21 PPG on 62.5% FG in limited matchup sample.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.8(↑ from 16.7)

APG

7.8(→ from 7.0)

RPG

7.4(↑ from 5.1)

3PM

2.4(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

De'Aaron Fox will likely draw primary assignment and has allowed 21 PPG on 62.5% FG in limited sample, but overall Sacramento's league-worst 120.57 defensive rating and 1.22x scoring suppression creates a favorable environment. DeMar DeRozan secondary duty shows 24 PPG allowed on modest 46% FG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Stephon Castle▼	Points	17.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	3	✗
Stephon Castle▼	Assists	7.5	OVER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	12	✓
Stephon Castle▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
Stephon Castle▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	1	✗
Stephon Castle▼	PRA	30.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	16	✗
Stephon Castle▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	15	✗
Stephon Castle▼	P+R	22.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	4	✗
Stephon Castle▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	0	✓
Stephon Castle▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA31.5OVER2%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PA4UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%▼

P+R22.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

FTM3.5UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST9OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

FTA4UNDER4%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Stephon Castle

Points + Assists OVER 29.5 (PRA OVER 30.5)MEDIUM

Castle has averaged 29.6 PPG+APG over his last 5 games (21.8+7.8). Against Sacramento's weak defense (120.57 rating) and with elevated recent minutes (32.0 MPG), he should reach or exceed 30.5. B2B is the primary risk factor, pulling recent average down to ~27 from projected starters, but Sacramento's perimeter vulnerability and his assist consistency make the over attractive relative to the line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan	3	7	11	38%	38%
Russell Westbrook	3	5	4	33%	50%
Precious Achiuwa	3	3	4	50%	50%
Zach LaVine	1	2	0	0%	0%
Keegan Murray	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 17.572%HIGH

Last 5 average of 21.8 PPG significantly exceeds line. Sacramento defense allows 1.22x scoring suppression. B2B fatigue is a concern (14.55 b2b average), but elevated usage and minutes support projection above 17.5.

assistsOVER 7.565%MEDIUM

Consistent assist producer at 7.8 APG over last 10 games. Season mean 7.02, recent mean 7.8. Even on b2b, assists typically remain stable. Plays at 32.0 MPG last 5, supporting hitting over.

reboundsOVER 5.562%MEDIUM

Recent 5-game avg of 7.4 RPG well above 5.5 line. Last 10 avg is 5.6. However, away game (splits show 4.1 RPG away vs 6.4 home) and b2b could suppress slightly. Moderate confidence due to location/rest variance.

threesOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

Last 5 average 2.4 FG3M per game, well above 1.5. Recent standard deviation (1.36) shows volatility but upward trend is clear. 3.667 FG3A per game last 5 indicates continued volume. Sacramento allows 1.116x three suppression, neutral for this matchup.

praOVER 30.570%HIGH

Last 5 PPG (21.8) + APG (7.8) + RPG (7.4) = 37.0 combined. Even accounting for b2b regression and away-game splits, the 30.5 line appears conservative. Sacramento's weak defense supports elevated total production.

paOVER 25.568%MEDIUM

Points + assists last 5: 21.8 + 7.8 = 29.6. Line of 25.5 is 4.1 points below recent average. B2B is a concern but assists remain stable. Sacramento's permissive defense supports this combo.

prOVER 22.566%MEDIUM

Points + rebounds last 5: 21.8 + 7.4 = 29.2. Line sits well below recent performance. Away-game splits (14.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG away) would project ~18.3, suggesting 22.5 is achievable but b2b adds slight risk.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Season average 1.2 SPG, last 5 only 0.4, last 10 at 0.8. Recent standard deviation (0.94) suggests inconsistency. Sacramento ranks 21st in pace (100) and doesn't generate high turnover environments. Under 1.5 is slight lean given low recent volume.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

Stocks (STL+BLK) average 1.53 season vs 0.9 recent. Last 5 stocks only 0.4, a significant drop from season norm. Blocks minimal (0.0 last 5, 0.3 season). Recent trend suggests staying under 1.5.

timelineOVER 17.5 PTS